Evolution of World Copper Reserves

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Cryptal global

15 min readOct 25, 2022

The world economy benefits significantly from the copper industry. More than merely a mined metal, copper also supports a higher standard of living by creating jobs.

The functioning of 40 automobiles, 100,000 mobile phones, 400 laptops, and the distribution of energy to 30 households are all provided by one tonne of copper.

In solving challenges vital to society, copper plays a significant role. These include infrastructure improvements, food provision, the reduction of CO2, and sustainable development. The copper industry tries to include workers, communities, and governments in tackling the difficulties of providing society with necessary resources. Members of the International Copper Association and other participants in the copper value chain are aware of their obligations to the environment and the communities where they conduct business.

Even though there is a growing need for copper, there is more of the metal accessible now than ever before. Because of this, plus the fact that copper can be recycled indefinitely, it is exceedingly improbable that civilization would exhaust the available supply, and copper will continue to support international projects like the Sustainable Development Goals and sustainable energy.

Copper’s Historical Roles

One of the first metals to be mined was copper, whose usage by humans was first recorded at approximately 8,000 BC. Copper was the only well-known metal for approximately 5,000 years and was mainly utilized to create amulets and other jewelry. The Bronze Age began around 3,000 BC with the discovery that copper could be alloyed with tin to form bronze. During this time, copper was extensively utilized in household items, tools, weapons, armor, and ornamental things. Brass, which was used in Roman currency, was created when copper and zinc were alloyed. Brass was used for a variety of things during the Middle Ages, including furniture, musical instruments, and early mechanical gadgets. A new use for copper that had significant military implications first appeared in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. According to the Royal Navy, the wooden hulls of British ships could be kept from rusting away. Americans are familiar with Paul Revere from his “midnight ride” at the start of the American Revolution, during which he informed the militia outside Boston that British forces were approaching. The fact that he eventually became America’s first copper pioneer and produced the sheathing for American ships, including the fledgling US Navy, is less widely known.

Copper started to find its contemporary purpose — its vocation in electricity — in the 1830s. A few yards of copper wire and cotton thread insulation made up Samuel Morse’s initial telegraph prototypes. Professor Charles Wheatstone showed his idea for the telegraph at about the same time in London by passing electricity via a copper wire about four miles long in what was said to be a “wonderful set of tests on the velocity of electricity.”

The telegraph made it unnecessary to physically transport a message from a sender to a recipient for the first time in human history. Thus, prior to the invention of the telegraph, the speed at which a message could be carried depended on how quickly it could be physically transported from its source to its destination. The network of copper wires linking the telegraph stations served as the foundation for the nearly immediate transmission of messages. The invention of the telephone and the electric light bulb, which needed a web of wires to connect a generator to the bulb, pushed the usage of copper as a conductor. Because it was mostly employed in such alloys up until around 150 years ago, pure copper only made up a small fraction of its overall use. All these alterations resulted in a considerable shift in copper’s function. Due to its excellent qualities as an electrical conductor, the majority of copper utilized today is in its pure form.

Copper Reserves and Resources

The idea of reserves and resources serves as the foundation for mineral availability in the future. Deposits that have been found, analyzed, and determined to be lucrative are called reserves. Resources are much bigger and comprise reserves, deposits that have already been found but may be lucrative, and deposits that have yet to be found but are anticipated based on preliminary geological surveys. The Earth’s crust naturally contains copper.

The yearly demand for copper is 28 million tonnes, while the world’s copper reserves are expected to be 870 million tonnes (United States Geological Survey [USGS], 2020). Over 5,000 million tonnes of copper are currently available in reserves (USGS, 2014 & 2017).

According to USGS data, there have constantly been enough resources and copper reserves to last for more than 200 years, on average, since 1950.

Usually, the idea of reserves and resources is used to predict the future availability of minerals. Deposits that have been found, analyzed, and determined to be economically profitable to mine are referred to as reserves. Reserves, known deposits that may be lucrative, and undiscovered deposits that are anticipated based on preliminary geological surveys comprise the vast majority of resources (see definitions below).

Approximately 870 million tonnes of copper are now held in reserves, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (Mt). The estimated quantities of identified and unknown copper deposits are 2,100 Mt and 3,500 Mt, respectively. The latter ignores the enormous quantities of copper found in large sulfides on land and under the sea and deep-sea nodules.

Since 1960, there have consistently been reserves with an average life of 38 years and much more known resources (USGS data). In addition, copper will continue to be available for a long time because of recycling, innovation, and mining exploration.

The amount of identified copper currently accessible to the globe is more than it has ever been, notwithstanding recent increases in demand for copper extracted from the ore.

Two hundred seven million tonnes of copper were mined between 2010 and 2020. However, over that same time, reserves increased by 240 million tonnes, reaching 870,000 tonnes of copper. This reflects increased exploration, technical development, and changing mining economics.

Many of the problems that modern copper production faces can be solved with the help of technology. New mine output will continue to supply essential copper supplies thanks to known and undiscovered advances.

Since today’s primary copper is tomorrow’s recycled material, copper recycling also significantly impacts the availability of copper. Copper is not “consumed” like other commodities like electricity or food. Copper is one of the few raw materials that can be recycled multiple times without losing its performance, so it is important for all key stakeholders — including policymakers, scrap collectors, copper producers, and recyclers — to work together to make sure that old metal is recycled and put to good use.

Even while this will guarantee a systematic transition to a more sustainable economy, the loop cannot be fully closed for two reasons. First, population growth, product innovation, and economic expansion will all contribute to rising demand. Second, copper is often used for many years in a given application.

Therefore, in order to fulfill future metals demand, a combination of primary raw materials from mines and recycled materials will be needed. At the same time, creative policies and technology should continue to support advancements in recycling performance and resource efficiency.

According to the most recent information on geological availability and ongoing industrial innovation, there are solid grounds for assuming that copper will continue to play a significant and beneficial role in society for a very long time.

Innovations in Copper Recycling and Mining

The great thermal and electrical conductivity of copper has made it an essential metal throughout history. Today, the electrical industry consumes nearly half of the copper produced worldwide. Because copper can be recycled endlessly without losing any chemical or physical characteristics, copper is a commonly utilized material. Secondary, or recycled, copper is identical to primary copper and requires far less energy to produce.

Since today’s primary copper is tomorrow’s recycled material, recycling is crucial for copper supply. Copper recovery and recycling contribute to meeting rising demand and securing a sustainable future for present and future generations.

Over the past ten years, recycled copper has supplied more than 30% of the world’s copper needs. Resource efficiency in mining “primary” copper and recycling “secondary” copper should continue to be improved by creative policies and technology in the future.

According to CopperAlliance.org, recycling copper increases its usable life to the point that 75% of the copper produced since 1900 is still in use. Because recycled copper maintains its electrical conductivity, it contributes to greater energy efficiency in many power systems. It uses up to 85% less energy throughout the recycling process than it does during initial manufacture, saving 40 million tons of CO2 annually. To maintain efficiency, many renewable energy systems utilize 12 times as much copper as conventional systems.

Producers must thoroughly inspect the incoming raw materials when employing recycled metals to ensure the components won’t harm the product or its brand. Portable XRF analyzers may be used throughout facilities to verify all incoming metals against documentation, for quality checks upon receipt of raw material scrap, and for the final analysis of the finished product before the material leaves the plant to guarantee they are delivering quality items.

In addition to recycling, the University of Sydney’s Warren Centre for Advanced Engineering Zero Emission Copper Mine of the Future project is one option to make copper mining ecologically benign. The Zero Emission Copper Mine of the Future outlines how Australian copper mining may become emission-free over the following 30 years by utilizing cutting-edge technologies, as published in the Global Mining Review.

The International Copper Association Australia (ICAA) commissioned this “world first” plan, highlighting five crucial priority areas for technical innovation to decrease and eventually eliminate mining emissions: exploration, material mobility, ventilation, processing, and water usage.

Collaboration across five strategic levers, including industry networks, capital enablers, future knowledge, and an open attitude, will be necessary to achieve cutting-edge innovation.

Ashley Brinson, director of the Warren Centre for Advanced Engineering, mentioned that the generation, consumption, and absorption of energy would all be radically altered in a zero-emission copper mine of the future, making it fundamentally distinct from the current copper mining system. In order to lessen their influence on the environment, companies frequently employ copper in green innovation.

Sustainable Mining Practices

Whether it is via emissions reduction, the use of renewable energy sources, technical advancement, safe working procedures, the conservation of water and biodiversity, or social outreach initiatives, ICA members are striving to produce copper responsibly.

The extraction of copper contributes to this through emissions from machinery, extraction, and transportation of raw materials for processing and production, which together account for around 11% of all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions; in addition to carbon emissions, the extraction of raw copper ore results in considerable land and water consumption, marine pollution from mining operations, and the release of toxins into the environment from industrial activities. Increased scarcity is also a result of ongoing resource exploitation.

International accords like the Paris Agreement and COP26, as well as initiatives like the Responsible Minerals Initiative and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, have put pressure on the copper mining sector to increase its sustainability.

Additionally, consumer and downstream brand expectations are evolving as a consequence of the public’s growing awareness of the harm that the industry is creating and their need for greater openness and exposure throughout the whole supply chain.

Sustainability must be improved for the copper sector to minimize emissions and environmental harm through international accords, intergovernmental initiatives, and consumer and manufacturer expectations.

The copper mining sector, as well as the mining sector as a whole, may contribute significantly to minimizing the negative effects of human activities on the environment and preventing supply issues brought on by depleting natural resources.

Issues with Increasing Copper Mining Industry Sustainability

Copper is 100% recyclable, much like aluminum, which benefits the copper business regarding sustainability and the circular economy idea. However, achieving total sustainability in the worldwide copper mining sector is difficult.

First, there is the issue of cost. Adopting sustainable practices may require an initial financial investment that will take time for businesses and governments to see a return.

Second, in order to improve the operation of mines throughout their lifetime, new green equipment, infrastructure, and technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), sensors, smart machinery, and so forth are required. This not only necessitates financial investment but also mine operator training.

Furthermore, worldwide frameworks and rules in line with global sustainability goals and activities are needed for the copper mining business to be sustainable. Action at the national level can be difficult since states have the sovereign right to utilize their natural resources through their environmental policies and in compliance with the norms of international law. The sustainability problem must nevertheless consider the requirements of many nations.

Second, new green equipment, infrastructure, and technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), sensors, smart machinery, etc., are necessary to enhance the functioning of mines throughout their lives. In addition to the financial expenditure, mine operator training is required for this.

Additionally, for the copper mining industry to be sustainable, global frameworks and regulations must follow global sustainability objectives and activities. Since governments have the sovereign right to use their natural resources in line with their environmental laws and in accordance with the rules of international law, taking action at the national level might be challenging. However, the sustainability issue must consider the needs of numerous countries.

Copper Stocks and Flows

The Fraunhofer Institute has monitored global copper movements and stockpiles for more than ten years. Their copper flow model, developed for ICA several years ago, gives a copper recycling overview in addition to full information on inventories and flows.

A much-increased knowledge of how copper is used and recycled by society is the product of Fraunhofer’s study. Dynamic Analysis of Global Copper Flows in their entirety. Additional information may be found in Global Stocks, Postconsumer Material Flows, Recycling Indicators, and Uncertainty Evaluation.

In 2018, nearly 29 million tonnes of semi-fabricated items, including tubes, sheets, and wires, were produced using roughly 21 million tonnes of raw copper that were mined. In 2018, 30 percent of this was obtained via recycling waste from manufacturing and end-of-life items.

China is a significant player in the global copper value chain since it is the largest producer of refined, semi-finished, and manufactured copper for end-use products. In 2018, China produced 12.05 million tonnes of copper-based end-use goods, and about 4 million tonnes of that copper were recycled.

In Europe, there are around 82.5 million tonnes of copper in use. The manufacture of semi-finished goods and end-use products dominates the copper value chain in Europe.

The majority of mined copper is produced in Latin America. Before being refined and made into finished goods in other places, most of the copper from Latin America is exported.

The total amount of copper in use in North America is 85.6 million tonnes, second only to China.

Japan’s copper stock mostly comprises copper scrap and copper imports. In 2018, Japan produced over 1 million tonnes of finished copper products and 1.6 million tonnes of refined copper.

The Future of Copper

The energy shift will provide generational difficulties for the copper industry, especially as well as the mining industry as a whole. This transition is a path toward transforming the global economy to Net-Zero Emissions by 2050. New technology for generating and utilizing renewable energy sources will facilitate the energy transition. In turn, this will need the creation of an environment conducive to investment and policy that will encourage innovation and raise the production of the vital minerals these new technologies depend on.

It is anticipated that the demand for copper from the energy transition would reach its peak in the mid-2030s, then begin to decline in the 2040s and 2050. However, due to global population growth and economic expansion, the demand for copper will more than double its current level. Without a major increase in copper output in the short to medium term, which will be exceedingly difficult, the 2050 climate goals cannot be met. The following factors will raise the demand for energy during the energy transition include 1) deployment of electric vehicles globally; 2) Infrastructure improvements and expansion for power are needed to facilitate electrification; and 3) Increasing the capability of renewable energy sources, including wind, solar, and energy storage.

There will be a particular need for this energy change in the US, China, and Europe. In less than 10 years, in 2035, the demand for refined copper is predicted to nearly double from just over 25 MMt in 2021 to nearly 49 MMt, placing the supply system in its most challenging stage. A significant portion of this increase will come from the energy transition end markets, which between 2021 and 2035, will nearly triple in size to exceed 21 MMt.

The High Ambition Scenario predicts an increase in refined copper output from 24.5 MMt in 2021 to over 47 MMt in 2035. As a consequence, there are persistent gaps between supply and demand for copper starting in 2025 and continuing through the majority of the 2030s, with a gap of more than 1.5 MMt in 2035 alone. However, this scenario depends on extremely considerable increases in recycling rates as well as capacity utilization. High Ambition is a setting that exudes a lot of optimism. This case study shows that, even at the very edge of what copper mining and refining operations can experience, there will not be enough supply to fulfill the demand outlined for Net-Zero Emissions by 2050.

The Rocky Road Scenario is based on the facts of the current global economy, including all the problems and barriers mentioned in the pages above. With the ongoing operational and investment constraints that are pervasive today, capacity utilization and recycling remain at the typical rates of today. The yearly supply shortages in 2035, according to the Rocky Road Scenario, would be close to 10 MMt, a sizeable amount that the market will have to make up for with hitherto unheard-of shocks on both the supply and demand sides. In this case, the deficit would start to get worse in 2024.

Notably, neither option implies that the expansions and new mines that make up the extra capacity expand more quickly. However, in the absence of a significant policy change, regulatory, permitting, legal difficulties, and long wait times for new mines to open their doors will continue to slow the rate of supply growth.

The energy transition schedule aiming for Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 will face substantial challenges in the wake of this copper supply-demand imbalance. The difficulty will be made even more difficult by the operational settings at the national and global levels of geopolitics. These consist of

· The strategic rivalry between the United States and China during an anticipated period in which China will continue to be the major global supplier of refined copper and the United States will rely on imports for much more than half of its copper needs.

· The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and its knock-on implications on energy security, commodity markets, and supply networks have brought to light their vulnerability. The new geopolitics is expected to be dominated by “supply chain resilience” strategies designed to ensure dependable supplies of the resources required for general economies and the energy transition.

· There is a rising conflict between the demand for minerals like copper, which is being drastically increased by the energy transition, social license, and ESG goals, and the expenses associated with compliance, legality, and mining such minerals.

· The chance that copper prices would rise significantly and structurally as the supply-demand imbalance widens may disrupt world markets and industry. While fundamentally higher prices encourage foreign investment in new capacity, governments in source nations will probably try to take home a growing portion of the profits.

· Globalization’s fragmentation and the revival of resource nationalism.

Briefly, the total global production of copper is estimated at 700 million metric tons. This might fit within a cube with a side length of around 430 meters.

The projected 2.1 billion metric tons of additional copper in identified resources boosts the total quantity of copper found to 2.8 billion metric tons. This could be contained within a cube with a side length of 680 meters. The amount of copper on Earth is around 6.3 billion metric tons, with an additional estimate that unexplored deposits include about 3.5 billion metric tons of copper. This might fit within a cube with a side measurement of around 890 meters.

About 65 percent of the copper recognized but untapped on Earth is found in only five nations: Chile, Australia, Peru, Mexico, and the United States.

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