“You can’t just stop growth.” What will happen to Bitcoin in the next week?
On Sunday, February 18, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $51.7 thousand, its price has increased by more than 7% since the end of the previous week. Specialists of the ASTL investment project analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for the movement of the Bitcoin exchange rate for the next seven days.
The crypto market has been bullish over the past week, fueled by expectations of the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April 2024. The week started on February 12 with a sharp increase in Bitcoin by 3.35% to $49,917 amid the approach of halving and a record influx of investments into Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In the first month of this year alone, they raised $3 billion, which was an absolute record for the ETF market over the past 30 years. On February 13, Bitcoin retreated 4% to a low of $48,300 as the dollar rallied following the release of higher-than-expected US inflation data for January. This increased the likelihood of the Fed continuing to tighten monetary policy. However, buyers quickly recovered their losses, preventing the price of Bitcoin from staying below $50 thousand for a long time. On February 14–15, there was a new impulse growth of Bitcoin to a maximum of $52,816 amid increased demand through ETFs. In particular, the BlackRock fund attracted a record $5.6 billion, equivalent to 109,609 BTC. The growth of Bitcoin was also fueled by the positive dynamics of the S&P 500 stock index. At the same time, experts did not exclude the possibility of a local correction after such a strong heating of the market. On Friday, February 16, at the end of the day, the BTC/USDT pair increased by 0.47%, to $52,124. During the day, the price traded in a narrow price range of $51,566 — $52,572.
In general, the week passed on an extremely positive note for Bitcoin. The upcoming Bitcoin supply halving in April 2024 and the unprecedented influx of funds into related exchange-traded funds were the key drivers of BTC’s growth in February. Although there were occasional corrective movements due to factors such as the US dollar rally and falling stock indices, buyers quickly recovered their losses. The price of Bitcoin has surpassed the psychological level of $50 thousand. Since February 5, the BTC/USDT pair has increased by 24.7%, to $52,818. Since the beginning of the week, Bitcoin has strengthened by 7%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin costs $51,750. Bitcoin’s stability is due to the influx of funds into spot exchange-traded funds based in the United States. The leader in capital inflow remains the IBIT fund from BlackRock. In second place is an ETF from Fidelity Investments (more than $4 billion), and Ark Invest closes the top three (more than $1 billion). IBIT has a balance of $6.063 billion or 115,989.804 BTC.
The market has been in a sideways trend for two days. It is worth noting that during a bullish trend, downward corrections are usually shallow. The price increases in steps. To reduce buyer activity, you need to fix long positions and drop by 10–15%. You can’t just stop growth. The market is now dominated by greed. Buyers are trying to catch their breath to continue the rally. There is also information that the growth in quotations was facilitated by the CME’s decision to increase margin requirements for trading Bitcoin futures. Leveraged traders took short positions, and the new requirement led to mass closures over the Lunar New Year weekend. According to BitRiver forecasts, by February 19–20, buyers can test the strength of the $53–53.5 thousand zone. From this zone, a short correction can be expected to the $48,800-$50,000 zone by March 3. This will be a serious battle for the $50 thousand level, since without new buyers Bitcoin will not be able to grow at the same pace. He has already attracted attention with his height. And when the price starts to accelerate upward, expect trouble.
The new week is poor for economic events. The week will most likely open with a correction in the crypto market, which already began on the weekend of February 17 and 18. Neither industry news nor significant macroeconomic events are expected on Monday. In the US, February 19 is a holiday, and the NYSE and NASDAQ stock exchanges will be closed. In the middle of the week, the US Federal Reserve will publish a transcript of the January meeting, which may shed light on the further behavior of the American regulator regarding the rate of reduction of the key rate, and on Thursday, February 22, indicators of the state of the American economy will be published — preliminary estimates of the indices of the state of production in the US and the service sector. But according to our analysts’ forecasts, no significant changes are expected. Statistics on the influx of capital into Bitcoin ETFs may put pressure on the crypto market: after several weeks of growth, there has been a downward trend in the rate of investment inflows into these funds. If the amount of capital raised drops significantly next week, it could curb Bitcoin’s growth.
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