The ‘Crypto Bubble’ Isn’t A Bubble, It’s A…

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I’ve written 18 crypto related posts since I saw the crypto light on June 29th. I could have titled most of those posts “what I learned about crypto this week”. After three months, on October 8th, I published my first thought piece “7 Thoughts On Blockchain, Cryptocurrency & Decentralization After Three Months Down The Rabbit Hole”. It’s, by a margin, the most read/clapped for post I’ve written. The 5th thought was “ It’s A Bubble….So What”. I went on to explain:

I say “so what” because I believe in Amara’s Law: We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. This is part of the reason we get bubbles. We get overexcited about a new technology and we drive up prices beyond any reasonable valuation. Bubbles can go on for years. The internet bubble lasted 5+ years.

With that thought piece at its 3 week anniversary, my thinking has evolved. It feels like we’re having a Cambrian Explosion in crypto. Just as the Cambrian period enabled the creation of a multitude of new life forms, the emergence of blockchain, cryptocurrency, and decentralization, is opening up a wide range of previously unavailable markets, as well as new ways to compete against entrenched incumbents. Sure, most of the new crypto…