Hayes: Bitcoin will ‘two-step’ to $20k. But what’s a two-step?!
TL;DR Bitcoin’s next move depends on whether you mean a regular two-step or a Texas two-step, though hopefully not an Alabama two-step.
Arthur Hayes, the controversial CEO of controversial bitcoin futures platform BitMex, has claimed that bitcoin is due another move upwards. In a tweet earlier this week, he explained his recent absence from social media — and it wasn’t (against all odds) because he was running from US regulators set on his heels by Nouriel Roubini.
‘Did y’all miss me? I’m back from deepest darkest Peru, ready to cash checks. For those of you in Singapore next week for Invest Asia keep Wednesday night free. We will be two-steppin’ straight to $20k.’
The immediate replies to this tweet were suspicious of his accuracy in predicting the future price of bitcoin, as well as his motivation. It may have had something to do with atrocious past predictions, and his known habit of having BitMex push the market around to liquidate margin traders. Everyone loves a platform that trades against its own users.
While Hayes’ words have been widely reported in the crypto media, no one has asked what he actually meant by ‘two-steppin’’. And that makes a big difference.
A regular two-step is a simple dance move consisting of, well, two consecutive steps in quick succession. If that’s what he meant, then we might expect a fast move up from the current $10k level to just below $14k, and then another rapid move to $20k.
But what if he meant a Country and Western Two-Step, which would look a bit more like the crypto equivalent of a fox-trot? In that case, we might expect something more like a quick move from $10k to $13k, then a slower move to $14k; then a quick move from 14k-18k, followed by a slower move to 19k; then a gentle sideways/upward shuffle to $20k.
One last option, however, is the Rhythm Two-Step. We don’t think Hayes meant this, because it is usually only practised in Arizona. On the off-chance that was in his mind — and anything is possible in the rarified atmosphere of Peru’s mountain-top temples — then it would be something like: $10k–$10.5k… back to $10k–$10.5k… $10k–$10.5k… … … $20k!!!!
Then probably rekt, since we’re talking about Arthur Hayes.
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