AFRICA — Bearing the brunt: what last week’s IPCC report means for Africa
As alarm bells ring, Africa’s struggle for climate justice remains an afterthought
The sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, released last week, was a stark warning to the world on the impact human activity is having on the climate. Data from the report’s ‘summary for policymakers’ outlines that human activity has thus far led to a global temperature increase of between 0.8 and 1.3 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Beyond this, the report warns that global temperature increases will continue until at least 2050 under all emissions scenarios, with only the most drastic cuts leading to stabilisation in the long-term. Indeed, within hours of the report’s publication, a statement from the UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the report a ‘code red for humanity’. One thing is clear — the scale of our predicament cannot be overstated.
In the past month alone, we have seen the severe impacts climate change is having on our planet. Record-breaking temperatures have fuelled wildfires in the Pacific North-West and torrential thunderstorms have caused destructive flash-floods in Europe. Tragically, both events led to significant losses of life. Yet while these frightening scenes intensify public discourse on the climate crisis, the wider injustices of climate change are too often ignored. While it is acknowledged that the world’s poorest, whilst having contributed the least to historical emissions, will be most impacted by climate change, these concerns are rarely addressed in international negotiations. In many parts of Africa, where long-standing issues such as food insecurity and drought are predicted to worsen, this issue of climate injustice is even more pertinent.
Pursuing climate justice: accounting for historical contributions
In light of this, acknowledging the role that advanced economies must play in recognising their historical responsibilities is central to any reasoned discussion on climate change. To date, Europe and the United States are responsible for the vast majority of cumulative CO2 emissions, as shown below:
According to the data, Europe and the United States were shown to have collectively contributed to over 58% of historical CO2 emissions from 1750–2019, compared to Africa’s 2.85% contribution. Nevertheless, the adverse effects of emissions are not confined to their geographical origin, thus creating a situation whereby those who have contributed the least must also suffer the consequences. In light of this, Philip Alston, the UN special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights, wrote in 2019 that climate change is ‘an unconscionable assault on the poor’. Last week’s IPCC report served only to underline this point.
What the latest report means for Africa
The current and projected impacts of climate change on Africa, as laid out in the IPCC report, make for grim reading. The summary for policymakers states that much of Africa is likely to experience more severe agricultural and ecological droughts as a result of climate change. Critically, it is noted that current changes in drought occurrence show an increase across much of Africa (see below).
Given the centrality of agriculture to many African economies, this is extremely concerning. Beyond this, the impact of climate change on food security in the region is also shown to be severe. A 2019 IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land noted that climate change is already affecting food security in arid regions, especially those in Africa, and will continue to worsen in the coming years. The knock-on effects this will have on rates of malnutrition (a key indicator of socio-economic development) are likely to be profound. Conversely, extreme precipitation events are also predicted to increase in frequency and intensity, with the West African monsoon season projected to intensify and to shift to later in the year, disrupting traditional agricultural calendars. Combined, these climatic shifts have the potential to severely disrupt vulnerable economic and social systems, affecting the livelihoods of millions of people.
Mercy Corps, an international NGO that works in regions experiencing crisis, recently published an article outlining how climate change affects people living in poverty. Drawing on the experiences of pastoralists across the world, the article examines the various ways in which climate change is already causing hardship. The words of Simon, a farmer in Kenya, struck me in particular, voicing the myriad problems that are exacerbated by environmental pressures:
“When there is no rain, like now, we get big challenges. There are no yields, and when you go to the shops you find that food prices have gone up, yet you are still jobless.”
It is clear that Africa is set to be severely impacted by climate change, primarily due to its reliance on agriculture and pre-existing insecurities, but also as a result of its relative incapacity to mitigate and adapt to climatic shifts. As such, it is absolutely necessary that African voices are heard loud and clear in international negotiations in order to highlight the burning injustice of climate change and to spur action from those who are most responsible.
Africa’s marginalisation
Even so, Africa’s historical marginalisation in international affairs persists. Just last year, the Associated Press was criticised for cropping Vanessa Nakate, a Ugandan environmental activist, out of a photo that included four white activists, including Greta Thunberg (see below).
In response to this, Nakate wrote: “They hadn’t just cropped me out, they’d cropped out a whole continent.” Sadly, this is a common theme in international environmental discourse.
The latest IPCC report does little to address these concerns. In response to its findings Mohammed Adow, the director of Kenyan think tank Power Shift Africa, told AFP that:
“People in Africa are certainly aware of the overwhelming heat, rising seas and extreme weather on the continent, but if they are not being recorded by scientists it will be much harder for African voices to be heard in the climate debate to tackle it.”
In saying this, Adow is highlighting the comparative lack of data on Africa’s changing climate, a paucity that only serves to further marginalise Africa’s voice in international discussions.
Now more than ever it is vital that the international community comes together to tackle the climate emergency. If we take one thing away from the latest IPCC report, it is that the need for radical action is immediate. Nevertheless, efforts to stabilise the climate must also address the burning injustices that climate change exhibits. Crucially, while Africa has contributed so little to our current predicament, it is the African people who are likely to suffer the worst consequences. It is critical that the path forward works to rectify this injustice.
