INDIA — A wake up call: what the latest IPCC report means for India
With extreme weather events just over the horizon, India must curb emissions
The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that the world faces irreversible damage due to climate change — a fact which will be quite pronounced for India as it is already one of the top 10 most affected countries as per the Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index.
Projected climate change for India
According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, heatwaves and humid heat stress will be more intense and frequent for India during the 21st century. Observations about wind patterns indicate that the South Asian monsoon winds will get stronger with time leading to heavy rainfall, flooding and related extreme weather events in the long run. Rainfall is also expected to have “enhanced inter-annual variability.”
The relative sea level around Asia has increased faster than global average, with coastal area loss and shoreline retreat. The report predicts that the regional-mean sea level will continue to rise. Furthermore, snow-covered areas, snow volumes and glacial volumes will decrease in most of the Himalayas, which will be accompanied by a general wetting of North and North-Eastern India.
Implications of climate change for India
These climatic changes will become more severe with increasing CO2 emissions and rising temperatures, resulting in a number of serious implications for India. Erratic monsoons, flooding and storms will cause significant losses for Indian summer crops. Higher temperatures will lead to lower rice yields due to shorter growing periods. Sea level rise will inundate low-lying areas and will especially affect rice growing regions. In the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India, there could be a decreased yield of up to 50% in the most favourable and high-yielding wheat area as a result of heat stress and higher CO2 concentrations. Farmers and other such unskilled or semi-skilled labourers will be forced to work in harsher weather conditions, further reducing productivity. This heralds difficult times for an agro-based economy like India, where agriculture is the largest sector contributing to GDP and skilled labour accounts for only 21% of the population.
Aside from economic repercussions and potential food-shortages, climate change will compound the multiple stresses caused by rapid urbanisation, industrialisation, and economic development. The IPCC’s 2014 report on Asia states that it is expected to adversely affect the sustainable development capabilities of India by aggravating pressures on natural resources and the environment.
Extreme climate events will also increasingly impact the health, security, livelihoods, and poverty of Indians. More frequent and intense heat waves will escalate mortality and morbidity in vulnerable factions. Heavier rainfall and higher temperatures will raise the risk of diarrhoeal diseases, dengue fever, and malaria. An upsurge in floods and droughts will exacerbate rural poverty as a result of negative impacts on the rice crop and resulting increases in food prices and the cost of living.
The way ahead for India
With these dire consequences in mind, it is imperative that India joins other nations in performing its duty to curb CO2 emissions such that the world does not exceed a carbon budget that limits global warming to 1.5°C — the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal. The report lays out four pathways through which this goal can be realised, all of which require undertaking unprecedented efforts to halve fossil-fuel use in less than 15 years and going carbon-neutral in 30 years. However, the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2030 submitted by India — a 33–35% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP compared to 2005, at least 40% non-fossil-fuel electric power capacity by 2030, and additional cumulative carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 GtCO2e by 2030 through additional forest and tree cover — is 2°C compliant, but still too high to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
India has made some progress in recent years with schemes to reduce carbon-dependence. In 2020, Indian government announced expansion of solar investment into the agricultural sector through its PM-KUSUM Scheme, which aspires to develop 25GW of solar capacity by 2022. Additionally, the transition in the electricity sector is accelerating: coal demand is falling, and the pipeline of planned new coal power generation is shrinking. Recent successful auctions of “round-the-clock” renewable power have shown renewable energy plus storage coming in with tariffs lower than those of coal.
Nevertheless, India’s plan to liberalise new investment in coal mines sends the inappropriate message that coal production will endure in the future. Coal production is rising and on track to produce a record high 830Mt of coal by the end of the year. India has also not made any headway in fulfilling the third part of its NDC — reforestation efforts have been underfunded and almost non-existent.
There are some key steps that could help India meet its NDC target and even reduce emissions enough to comply with global 1.5°C IPCC strategies. Firstly, India both taxes and subsidises coal, which is an inconsistent policy. Eliminating price distorting subsidies will be crucial to expediting a conversion to renewables. In fact, subsidies should be redirected away from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources to help save on cost and gain co-benefits like improved air quality. Secondly, India currently has no blueprint for phasing out coal. It needs to develop a strategy for the coal phase-out and while doing so, also ensure a fair transition for workers and communities so that there are no social or economic costs. And thirdly, India’s transport sector, presently accounting for 14% of its energy-related CO2 emissions, is a quick-growing sector with vehicle ownership growing rapidly; it grants an opportunity for the government to take firmer action to increase the share of EVs and meet its target of 30% electric vehicles by 2030.
India has responded to the IPCC report by welcoming it. Environment minister Bhupendar Yadav has called for developed countries to undertake immediate, deep emission cuts and decarbonisation of their economies:
“Developed Countries have usurped far more than their fair share of the global carbon budget. Reaching net zero alone is not enough, as it is the cumulative emissions up to net zero that determine the temperature that is reached. India’s cumulative and per capita current emissions are significantly low and far less than its fair share of global carbon budget.”
Yadav’s words ring true, but it is what he has not said that matters even more: India has not committed to reaching net-zero emissions by a particular year. Calling out and putting pressure on other nations is important, but it is of greater importance for India to not get bogged down in a blame game. While it is a tall order for a developing lower-middle-income country like India to fulfil IPCC’s target, it is not impossible — India’s carbon emissions per capita are far below the G20 average, giving it a head start on other nations. So if the current BJP government focuses as much on climate policy as it does on playing Hindu-nationalist politics and undermining democracy, India will be on course for reaching its climate goals in no time.
