Lebanon — a nation trapped in an endless crisis
Sectarian tensions and an acute economic crisis threaten to push the nation into ruin
On 14th October we saw distressing scenes in Beirut as scores of armed militiamen took to the streets. A large portion of the city was forced into lockdown by the worst civil violence that Lebanon has witnessed in 13 years. It felt alarming but all too familiar. If not for the cars on the streets, one could be forgiven for mistaking the pictures taken earlier this month for the archives of the Lebanese Civil War (1975–90).
Two Shi’a political organisations — the Iranian-backed Hizbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement — organised a rally calling for the removal of judge Tarek al-Bitar who was investigating the August 2020 Beirut port blast that devastated the city and killed 200 people. The demonstrators, many of whom were heavily armed, believed that the judicial investigation was politicised and biased against them. This rally was fired upon by unknown snipers, the resulting gunfight killing 7 people and leaving 30 others injured. The two Shi’a groups accused the Lebanese Forces (LF), a Maronite Christian militia from the civil war that is now an opposition party, but the LF denies any involvement.
SECTARIAN POLITICS
One must look past this blame game to discover that the crisis over the judicial probe is rooted in one of Lebanon’s main problems: sectarian politics. The sectarian tension between the Sunni Muslims, the Shi’a Muslims and the Christians has fuelled civil conflict since Lebanon gained independence. It is responsible for repeatedly disrupting the daily lives and development of Lebanese citizens, forcing them to live in fear for their lives and livelihoods.
October 14th’s clash, the deadliest since 2008, occurred in the same week that Lebanon was set to observe the two-year anniversary of the mass protest movement that tried to bring that political establishment down. In October 2019, hundreds of thousands of people staged public demonstrations demanding an end to the corruption and chronic mismanagement they had lived under since the end of the civil war.
The demonstrators demanded change, and for a while, it seemed as if they were succeeding when they brought the country to a halt: roads were blocked, businesses were closed, schools were shuttered, and tear gas canisters fired by the military forces were volleyed back. But soon enough it became apparent that instead of a positive transformation, Lebanon was barrelling towards economic ruin.
LEBANON’S ECONOMIC WOES
In an attempt to create economic stability following the end of the civil war, the Lebanese lira had been pegged at an exchange rate of 1500 to one US dollar since 1997. However, Lebanon’s foreign reserves were being depleted by the effort of keeping the currency pegged artificially high and in October 2019, the lira began to slip. Two years on, it has lost more than 90% of its value and was traded at a record low of 23,000 to the dollar on the black market in July. To compound this crisis, Lebanon defaulted on a $1.2bn Eurobond debt repayment in March 2020 and its national debt stood at $97.92bn, 170% of its GDP that year.
The UN estimates that 82 per cent of the country currently lives under the poverty line. Lebanon is beset by hyperinflation with price rises of up to 660% putting basic foodstuffs beyond the reach of many. Moreover, the country is suffering from severe fuel shortages, power cuts, brain drain and water rationing. The pandemic only exacerbated the struggle. The healthcare system teetered on the brink of collapse due to medical shortages combined with as little as 1 or 2 hours of electricity per day. Businesses shut down and the economy shrunk by more than 20% in 2020. The World Bank deems that the crisis is among the top three most severe in the world since the 1850s.
Throughout Lebanon’s plunge into crisis, a solution has been on the table. The IMF is offering a bailout package, along with help from the UK, the US and France, on the condition that the new government implements desperately needed anti-corruption reforms. Up until now, none have been enacted. It seems like the only political consensus between the various religious factions in the rapidly collapsing nation is to defend a corrupt and mismanaged economic system that benefits the rich minority. The only ray of hope for Lebanon is that its talks with the IMF are likely to resume in November. Success, however, is not guaranteed.
