A reversal in U.S. policy towards Cuba would cost 6.6 billion and over twelve thousand jobs
If United States President Donald Trump reverses the majority of new regulations towards Cuba approved by his predecessor, Barack Obama, it would cost the U.S. economy up to $6.6 billion in losses through 2021 and would affect more than 12,000 jobs according to a report published today.
Prepared by Engage Cuba, a U.S. based organization, which is in favor of normalization between both countries, this report comes at moment in which there are growing rumors that Trump will announce this month his intention to reverse some of the measures initiated by Obama.
According to officials, former officials and sources close to the process, Trump is planning to give a speech in Miami, Florida this month to announce the results of the revision of the latest policy approach towards Cuba initiated by his predecessor in 2014.
This report presented by Engage Cuba is based on the hypothesis that the Trump Administration could end “all travel regulations” started by Obama towards Cuba, including an extension of licenses for certain categories of travel, the expansion of remittances, the end of the ‘dry foot, wet foot’ policy and the general licenses for certain exports and collaboration in research”.
If the scenario described by Engage Cuba were to be come actual policy, “it would cost $6.6 billion to the U.S. economy and would affect 12,295 jobs during Trump’s first mandate which ends in January 2021, according to the report.
The most affected sector of the economy would be the travel industry. Modifying the recent expansion of the legal categories of travel for U.S. citizens to visit Cuba would cost the airlines and cruises $3.5 billion and affect 10,514 jobs in those industries, according to the report.
If Trump were to revoke the authorization for manufacturing companies to export to the island, the energy, chemical, and technology industries that are finalizing contracts in Cuba would lose “$1 billion” and 1,359 jobs would be affected.
In case the flow of remittances sent by Cubans working in the U.S. were to be cut, American money transfer companies would lose $1.2 billion and affect 782 jobs.
Finally, if Trump were to restore the policy that deported Cubans caught at sea (wet foot) but allowed for those that touched U.S. soil to stay (dry foot), would cost U.S. taxpayers close to 953 million over the next four years.
According to the group, rural communities in the U.S. that depend the most on the agricultural, manufacturing and maritime industries would be the most disproportionately affected if new regulations were added to travel and commerce with the Caribbean island.
The states most affected by a change in policy towards Cuba, would be the ones with deep-water ports and closest to the island, such as Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi.
At the same time, the analysis indicates that even though in recent years, several regulatory barriers were eliminated for U.S. companies and citizens interested in making business with Cuba, the economic, commercial and financial blockade imposed by Washington on the island for more than fifty years, has not ceased to exist.
Studies have demonstrated that this policy towards Cuba costs U.S. businesses and farmers an estimate of $5.9 billion a year in loss of income from exports according to the text.
Several former diplomats and experts on Cuba contributed to the report with hopes that an economic argument will convince Trump, a former real estate mogul with hotels all over the world.
“If President Trump rolled back our Cuba policy, he would add job-killing government regulations on U.S. businesses. This directly conflicts with President Trump’s campaign promises,” said James Williams, President of Engage Cuba in a press release.
Diverse business groups and travel agencies including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s U.S.-Cuba Business Council, the American Society of Travel Agents, and Cuba Educational Travel support the report published today.
Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT) made a statement in which he opposes changes in Cuba policy and says to President Trump: “Rather than cave to the pressure of a dwindling minority who are stuck in the past, he should go to Cuba and speak directly with the Cuban people on behalf of the overwhelming majority of Americans who favor closer relations.”
(With information from EFE, Prensa Latina and The Hill)
