2016 Predictions: Will Virtual Reality Be the New Normal?
The long-awaited arrival of VR could change the way we consume content forever
Here’s a scene I predict will happen a year from now — on Christmas morning, teenagers across the world will roll out of bed, pick up their crutches, and hobble down to the tree. They’ll open a box to find a pair of virtual reality goggles and embrace their parents, forgiving them for buying them the hoverboard that caught fire and burned off their toes last year. The run on VR goggles will make Tickle Me Elmo look like a flop. It’ll make Frozen look lukewarm. It will become the new normal and change the way we consume content forever.
Virtual reality has been the next big thing for a really, really long time now. I was in middle school in 1993 when Lisa Simpson used VR goggles in “Marge vs. the Monorail.” They’ve been a perennial “any-minute-now” breakthrough, but all the technical and social pieces never quite lined up. Until the late 2000s, the thought of spending all your time with your face in a screen seemed kind of off — now we take it for granted that it’s the new way of life. Gaming has evolved in such a way it almost realistic and can be properly enjoyed with a VR headset. We have the tools to tell interactive stories and spend time immersed in situations — the New York Times did some groundbreaking work with Google Cardboard earlier this year.
I’ve used both the Oculus Rift and Cardboard — I preferred the Oculus, but that’s probably because I used the free version of Cardboard that came with the Times. I actually don’t have a prediction about which device will win in the end, or maybe we’ll have an iOS/Android type of situation with a few devices — it really doesn’t matter. Either way, the price will probably fall enough and there will be sufficient content for people to want to start buying VR goggles very soon.
So what does this mean for the music business? If played right, this could be a huge revenue opportunity, and a few companies, like Vantage.tv and Jaunt, seem poised to lead the way. A handful of artists have already released VR content, but they tend to be older and more established, like Paul McCartney and the Who. As the barrier to entry lowers, there are a number of ways artists and the music business as a whole could jump on the VR bandwagon.
First, you could spend a day in the life of an artist. This will no doubt benefit big artists the most, because who wouldn’t want to spend a day as Taylor Swift or Rihanna? Any in-app commerce opportunities could be massive, and the brand plays alone could be worth millions. But small artists with interesting stories could do something with this as well. There are plenty of world music artists who could create a day in the life experience and show others what it’s like to be an artist in Mali or Lagos or Jeddah, and domestic artists could offer a hipster’s tour of Brooklyn or Berlin.
Music education is obviously another huge area of opportunity, and talented artists could make a pretty penny giving lessons to students around the world. Many are already doing it via YouTube or Periscope, but teaching music in VR allows for more interaction and real time learning. This is an especially huge benefit for kids in rural markets or those who want to learn uncommon instruments.
And then we come to the live space, where VR could expand the market in a massive way. I’ve stumped for more live-streaming for a long time and will continue to do so, but maybe the market will just skip right over it and go to watching concerts on a headset. This technology already exists, and people I know that have tried it out give it high marks for being realistic. Will it ever be exactly the same as a live show? Of course not — I saw Sleater-Kinney a few nights ago and watching them and singing along with my friends is an experience that can’t be replicated. But there are plenty of bands I like enough to pay $15 to watch on a headset that I wouldn’t pay $30 or more to see in real life. And there are huge numbers of people who don’t have access to many live shows now that would love to throw in some extra money to see something rather than nothing.
Once you start thinking about it, the number of paths artists can go down in the virtual world seems endless. They can allow fans to play games with them, something they should be doing on Twitch already. They can release interactive videos and even create games so that fans can be completely immersed in a concept. They can release stems and have fans create virtual collaborations, then release the best ones. And on, and on.
Virtual reality goggles will likely follow the same path as the iPhone — something that a handful of people get at first, and over a short period of time, becomes the norm for the way we consume content. Many startups wouldn’t exist without smartphones (“get a car service, right from your laptop” doesn’t pack quite the same punch) and VR will probably create a ton of new products and opportunities. Artists and labels should start planning their strategies now, so that come Christmas 2016, they’ll be prepared to be part of the hottest product launch in years.
If you enjoyed reading this, please click “Recommend” below to help to share the story with others.
