Reaching Net-Zero Carbon Emissions
The Pathway to 2050
The impacts of climate change are becoming more and more acute. We’ve seen record flooding in Florida, record heat in Texas, Northern Mexico, and South Asia, and continued increases in global temperatures. With sea levels set to rise several feet by the end of the century, and temperatures set to blow past the 2°C limit set by climate scientists to mark disaster, reducing carbon emissions is a critical goal.
To minimize the impacts of climate change, a global political consensus is emerging around a target of net-zero emissions. A procession of targets has been announced by various collections of states, with goals for 2030 and out into the future. They are slowly converging on a singular target: limiting the global average temperature increase from the pre-industrial age to 1.5°C by reducing emissions to net-zero by 2050.
It is an ambitious and audacious goal, but, with the help of emerging critical technologies, an increasingly viable one. A growing number of countries have signed on to the net-zero pledge, now accounting for 70% of global carbon emissions. However, many of these pledges lack specific policies, and in total would leave 22 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Current trends mean a 2.1°C temperature increase by 2100. Something needs to change.
Most carbon emissions come from the energy sector. According to the International Energy Agency, three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions are the result of energy generation alone. This is why so much attention goes into this sector, and why reducing it to net-zero emissions would be a huge contribution to achieving international climate goals.
Achieving Net-zero in the energy sector by 2050 requires huge investments in the development and deployment of clean energy technologies. Particularly, we need immediate and large-scale deployment of all currently available clean energy technologies. This includes solar and wind energy generation and associated battery arrays to ensure constant power. It includes nuclear energy and non-traditional renewables where possible, like geothermal and hydropower. And it includes carbon capture and other abatement technologies.
In the IEAs net-zero pathway, the economy of 2030 is 40% larger but uses 7% less energy. This means that economic growth must be decoupled from emissions growth, something that is already true in most advanced, developed economies. This must happen for the developing world as well. The growth generated by activity associated with the energy transition partly solves this. Wind and solar capacity will need to be scaled-up to 4 times 2020 capacity by 2030.
Government investment and incentives in this clean energy infrastructure can help bridge the gap between the private sector and public climate goals. Policy measures that would help include phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies, carbon pricing through cap-and-trade and carbon credits, and infrastructure investment in upgraded transmission and distribution grids, as well as EV charging stations. Incentives to encourage electrification, such as tax credits for EV purchases, will be crucial to reduce emissions as the energy sector gets greener. Upgrading the grid is vital to make this sustainable.
Upgrading the grid and deploying existing technologies gives us a good baseline to mitigating climate change. But, to meet net-zero by 2050 will require developing new technologies that can accelerate the green energy transition. Much of this will come from developing advanced batteries to store power from intermittent renewables, clean hydrogen production, and carbon capture. By 2050, its estimated that these new technologies will need to account for nearly half of annual CO2 emissions savings.
The final pieces are economic and political. First, there must be broad alignment between climate goals and economics. The right incentives can make capitalism the environments best friend. The dollar amount of investments required is simply too high to rely on public spending alone. The investments mentioned previously are more than enough to replace the loss of the fossil fuel sector. Based on a joint analysis between the IEA and the International Monetary Fund, total annual energy investment will surge to $5 trillion by 2030, adding an extra 0.4% of annual global GDP growth.
This is not without economic cost, and governments will likely have to soften the blow. The contraction of oil production will cause instability in regions where it is the primary source of growth. And renewable technologies require critical minerals from countries with oppressive and exploitative regimes. Emissions reduction in the short-term could harm the quality of life for people in developing countries, and access to electricity will have to keep pace with reductions in carbon emissions to sustain political capital.
The economic burden of ceasing to develop new fossil fuel sources will have to be covered. Publicly traded oil companies largely rest their valuations on proven reserves. If these reserves can no longer be developed, their value plummets. People’s retirement accounts and livelihoods will be directly impacted by this loss in value and must be provided ways to shift their portfolios to clean energy while minimizing losses imposed by government policies. Ultimately, we can and must align net-zero emissions goals with economic growth. It’s vital to maintain the political and social capital of the clean energy movement so that, in the long run, our goals and policies are implemented and succeed.
Another problem is political. International NGOs like IEA are vital to establishing standards and policies that will achieve climate goals on a global scale. Developing countries look with suspicion at efforts spearheaded by developed countries to curb emissions. Developing countries in many cases bear a disproportionate burden from climate change and have not had the benefits of economic growth that developed countries achieved while spewing unprecedented amount of carbon into the atmosphere. Getting around this political problem requires groups that can act as neutral players.
Reaching net-zero emissions will require an intense focus from governments, business, citizens, and NGOs to set goals and provide accountability for achieving them. Not only does it require technical expertise but is also must combine this with political and economic considerations to get us across the finish line. There is a clear path forward but will require an unprecedented level of co-operation across multiple sectors over several decades. It will be difficult, but we have no choice.
