The Last 48 Hours Brought Even More Lewdness Into The US Election
So many different things to un-package from the last 24 hours in US politics since this video of lewd remarks made by Donald Trump emerged:
1. The leaked audio tape was initially so unsurprising that when I got a notification about a new Trump statement I initially didn’t even bother opening it.
2. Despite it being so unsurprising the audio and video were shocking in how disgusting they were. And that was my reaction as a man, I can only imagine how women, many of which have been on the receiving end of such predatory moves by men in positions of power, must feel after hearing what Trump said. The whole thing, from the sound of the rattling tic-tacs to the comments that allude to him bragging about sexually assaulting women to his sheepish grin when he goes in for the hug, just evoke a visceral reaction.
3. This could not have come for a worse time for Trump for three reasons:
- FiveThirtyEight was already giving Hillary a >75% chance of winning the election before the news broke, with her in the lead or neck-in-neck in Ohio, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada… all states he needs to win.
- He already had to crawl out of a hole for the second debate tomorrow by keeping the message on points he can win (trade, Wall Street etc.). Now this has all but guaranteed that a good chunk of the debate will be related to his misogyny, which, at best, he will be able to recover lost ground.
- The news effectively neutered the wikileak “October surprise” of Hillary’s speeches which the Trump campaign hoped would dominate the pre-debate news cycle. If this was planned by the Hillary Campaign then this was a work of genius, if it wasn’t then Trump has terrible luck.
4. Don’t expect a massive flocking to Hillary but do expect a lot of would be Republican voters to stay home. Core Trump supporters won’t abandon him but moderate Republicans who were holding their nose and voting for him or independents who hate Hillary will probably just stay home. Hillary’s base, however, will only get more energized to vote.
4. The pressure on vulnerable swing state Republicans to get off the Trump train has never been higher. You are already seeing defections from Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa. This is going to be self-reinforcing. Defections will decrease his chances of winning these states, which will decrease the chances of winning the election, which will make the political cost of defecting much lower.
5. Never Trump and Establishment Republicans believe that they have an alternative path to the White House now via a Pence ticket (the “Pence Path”). I believe that’s wishful thinking but that’s beside the point. Pence preformed well in the debate, he’s already on the ticket, they never really liked Trump and Trump’s chances of getting to the White House are slimmer than ever. The window of opportunity to try the “Pence Path” is slim (we are 31 days from the election), if Trump screws up tomorrow then they will likely try some form of “palace coup.” Pence’s statement can be interpreted as him hedging his bets no matter which way this goes.
6. There are really only two ways for Trump to respond. Apologize, retreat, redemption or fight to the death. His comments so far are some combination of the two but he’s already leaning towards fighting. He’s going to go after Bill Clinton, the establishment and the media. That stuff plays great to his core base, but will depress the turnout he needs and won’t win him any new voters. It also means that he will fight a war on multiple fronts (vs. Hillary, establishment, media, possibly Pence?).
7. Hillary’s silence is so much more effective than anything else she can do right now. The Republicans are essentially in an all-out civil war and she can afford to bide her time and wait to open up a new front on him. Her campaign’s statement that she will give her response at the debate will only ensure that this story lives on well into next week and get maximum viewership. You know that she is practicing a million ways to deliver a knockout punch line tomorrow.
8. Brace yourselves because this isn’t over.
