Are Hurricanes More Powerful Because of Climate Change?
Climate change is accompanied by complicated changes to the weather and atmospheric patterns, which may alter the trends in hurricane activity.
Impacts of climate change on hurricanes
Human-induced climate change increases the amount of moisture deposited on land and oceans. Warm oceans produce more rainfall, which in turn fuels hurricanes. The oceans are also warm to sustain hurricanes, and high ocean temperatures have increased coastal storm surges, threatening coastal communities.
Human-caused global warming contributes to a higher risk of extreme weather. Increased sea temperatures fuel hurricanes, making them more intense. The warmer sea surface temperature also gives hurricanes more energy to make landfall. A recent study by researchers at Stony Brook University examined hurricanes in the Atlantic basin for the past 25 years and found that storms experienced rapid intensification more often than their historical counterparts.
Increased precipitation levels are one of the most critical impacts of climate change on hurricanes. Warmer sea surface temperatures increase hurricane wind speeds and cause more damage when they land. As a result, NOAA predicts that the probability of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes will increase five-fold. Researchers note that hurricanes will become wetter because of increased ocean temperatures. The warmer climate causes the steering currents to move slower, which may account for Harvey’s slow movement.
Another impact of climate change on hurricanes is increased sea level, increasing coastal vulnerability to storm surge flooding. Depending on the characteristics of future storms, sea-level rise may result in increased coastal flooding in coastal regions. However, projections for the future sea-level rise along the U.S. coastlines show wide variability for these two impacts.
Causes of climate change
Scientists believe that global warming is causing hurricanes to grow stronger and produce more rain, fueling the cyclone’s deadly power. The warming of oceans and land have contributed to rain falling on coastal areas, increasing rainfall by 10% compared to a world without global warming.
The increased hurricane intensity and rainfall rates that scientists project for the end of the 21st century are consistent with the theory of increased tropical cyclone intensity. Overall, the study indicates that greenhouse warming is causing hurricanes to grow stronger and more potent in the future.
Scientists have shown that the ocean absorbs 90% of excess heat from human-produced greenhouse gases. This warming makes storms more intense, but the exact impact of global warming is still disputed. Despite this uncertainty, NASA has published a study that supports the theory that global warming increases the chance of natural disasters, including hurricanes.
One way to counter the impacts of climate change is to take action now. While many scientists disagree over whether climate change is a direct cause of more powerful hurricanes, they agree that the oceans are becoming warmer. Hurricanes are already more potent, and a future big El Niño may bring the intensity of hurricanes to new heights. But this may be the new normal for hurricanes and other types of severe weather.
