The Heat Boys survived, but it was an odd week. If it’s OK with everyone else, I’d like to move past how our collective delay to settle on a pick caused us to miss the 12:30 EST deadline, leaving us with autopicks for two of our three entries (the third went with Tennessee on Thursday night and was already through). Here is another rundown of our picks thus far:
It stung just a bit that the juggernaut that is SHOWHEAT1 had to spend a pick on actual juggernaut NFL team New England, but I am comfortable with our position as 3 of the remaining 579 entries. I think we can win this.
No need to dwell on the past though. Let’s take a look at Week 9’s slate:
GB -7.5 vs. IND
There are two things that irk me about this overly obvious Green Bay pick. Maybe three. First, lack of any actual running backs. That’s never a good thing. Then second, you have a bevy of anonymous receivers outside of Jordy Nelson, and Rodgers essentially threw one of them under the bus after the narrow loss at Atlanta. And three, the coaching staff has not shown me that they are willing to make any adjustments to run a scheme that constantly gives Rodgers guys who are open whether or not they beat man coverage.
Now, Indianapolis is bad. They are missing Vontae Davis to a concussion, but on the other hand the depth of their receiving corps is getting healthy again. But what gives me some room to believe in them is the Chicago defensive line giving the Packers more than they could handle up front two weeks ago. The blueprint is out there. Pressure Rodgers with four down linemen. He won’t use his legs to beat you anymore because he is old. For coverage, play underneath man across the board, forcing well-timed and -placed passes over man coverage and underneath safety help. The best way to punish a team playing that type of coverage (where five guys essentially have their backs to the ball as they chase receivers up the field) is to RUN THE BALL! The Packers CAN’T RUN THE BALL! This could be one of the strangest games of the week, and I’d really prefer to wait for the Packers to show they can handle their business before I trust them too soon. Good news for those choosing to wait: the Packers host HOU in Week 13.
SEA -7 vs. BUF
Seattle’s offense has not been impressive with a hobbled Russell Wilson and an abysmal offensive line. Yes, they are the Seahawks and pundits can’t help but pencil them in for the Super Bowl, but wouldn’t you feel better if you saw them play even one good offensive game first?
On the other side, Buffao has a lot to struggle with. Hurt receivers, an offense that depends on a run game (and was without its star running back), and a trip to the far West Coast. Not to mention Rex’s personal ties to the Trump campaign and the stress he’ll be feeling two days before the election ends!
I can’t tell you that Buffalo is going to go out there and beat a superior Seattle team. But I would urge some caution as we await a healthy Seattle team that has shown some winning ways in a few weeks. If/when they start to figure themselves out, they have a slew of games at home where you can flat out trust them as your survivor pick.
MIN -6 vs. DET
Minnesota is no longer being thought of as an elite NFL team. They have lost their last two games on the road to inferior teams (well, maybe Philadelphia is good, but bear with me). But both of those teams had a lot to prove. The Eagles had to right their ship after losing an ugly one to division-rival Washington, and Cutler wanted to show the Jets why they should give him an elite quarterback contract next year. Also, both those teams have elite pass rushing! Bradford was put off his spot, and it upset the (devoid of main weapons) offense.
But don’t forget how amazing that Vikings defense has been! That will be a constant over the rest of the season. And the offense, well, Diggs and McKinnon are healthy now, and the addition by subtraction/resignation of Norv Turner can only help us! Bradford is capable. They can scheme their way to 24 points (helped by defense giving them great field position), and that’s enough for them to win any given week!
The Lions are also bad. They have been riding a wave of luck that is just begging to crash them to bits, and the Vikings will be all too happy to oblige. With the Vikings’ athleticism all over their defensive unit, I can see Stafford and Cooter being frustrated at every turn.
The Vikings have a lot to prove this week, and a prideful elite defense performing in the wake of an ugly loss or two is one of the easiest things you can bet on in the NFL. Would using the Vikings now be too soon? NO! They are at Jacksonville in Week 14 and hosting Indianapolis in Week 15. While the Indy matchup is appealing, there are a ton of large lines in Week 15! I feel very good about the Vikes this week.
SD -4.5 vs. TEN
I also feel pretty damn good about the Chargers! They battled with the Broncos last week and had a shot at taking it. Phillip Rivers can manufacture points all day, and the Joey Bosa-led defensive front is giving teams more than they bargained for.
This Chargers team was already NEARLY winning just about every game so far this season, but they have a legitimate shot at getting hot and making the playoffs! It starts by taking care of business this week, and I trust them on a fundamental level to do so.
As for Tennessee, I am simply not seeing enough improvement year-over-year from Mariota to fear that offense. Yes, DeMarco is getting his yards, but if the Chargers can start off well and generate some kind of lead, the Titans just won’t be able to catch up.
I thank the Titans for their service earlier in the year and even last week. But picking up wins within their crappy division is a far cry from flying out to San Diego and beating Phillip on his turf. San Diego will win by double digits and all the pundits will talk about their legitimate playoff chances.
But if they have legitimate playoff chances, is there going to be an even better spot to pick them later in the year? Sadly, no. I fully expect them to beat teams like Miami, Houston, Tampa, and Cleveland, but they will never be massive favorites. And there will be teams you trust MORE than them even at the same sort of spread. If we decide to take the Chargers this week, don’t feel like you’ll regret it later. Set it and forget it.
MIA -3.5 vs. NYJ
The Jets are a complete mess and deserved to lose last week. Enunwa is a lone bright spot on an injury-riddled offense, and the defense has been undone by weaker-than-expected corner play.
Now that isn’t to say I trust the Dolphins to have my back in a foxhole, either. Ajayi has had a revelation, but he is probably due to come back to Earth. The failure of Tannehill to find and utilize his by-all-accounts talented receivers is just sad at this point. And Mike Lombardi’s “if I traded for Tannehill, I’d still need a quarterback” dagger on the Bill Simmons Podcast will never be forgotten.
Just look at how Vegas treats them. They’d be slight underdogs if this game were being played at New York! Vegas is heavily discounting the Steelers win (as the Steelers gave it away more than anything) and the Bills win (as the Bills were a shell of their healthy selves). Whenever you think the line should be 6 and it’s only 3.5, just stay away and don’t look back.
Trust neither team to do anything to win in this game. Stay all the way away.
ATL -3.5 at TB
I am not at all convinced Atlanta is good. Also, Tevin Coleman is still out, and that is a big loss for the Falcons’ offense given how well they use the shifty back.
Jameis has disappointed at just about every turn this year, but I could see him coming out for the home crowd on a Thursday and lighting it up if only because no one believes in him anymore.
When Atlanta is healthy and needs to win a Week 15 game against San Francisco to keep their playoff hopes alive, maybe then I will trust them. But for now, I simply don’t. Don’t tweet me about this take.
NO -3.5 at SF
New Orleans is a very good team at home, and a very bad team on the road. Also, I have no feel for how well Kaep might play any given week. If he came out and ran for 100 and threw for 250 in an easy win (the Saints’ defense DOES suck, people), I wouldn’t be shocked at all.
This game will be too ugly to watch, so I’m not sure I can feel strongly about wagering on the result. But if you did decide that New Orleans was worth a pick at some point, and you realized it would be better if they were at home, you might look to Weeks 12 and 13 when they host LA then Detroit. Just saying.
CAR -3 at LA
Carolina nutted all over a depleted Cardinals team last week. But does that allow you to forget some of the stinkers they’ve thrown on the board over the first half of the season? Does it allow you to forget the outfit Cam Newton wore as he complained about the refs this week?
That hat cannot be trusted. This team cannot be trusted. Stay all the way away.
KC -7.5 vs. JAX
The last two picks are this low on the list because they are overwhelmingly popular at this stage in the week. KC is being selected by nearly 40% of entries right now. That is a butt load. Also, KC saw Alex Smith get nearly decapitated (he won’t play this week), lose Spencer Ware to a concussion (can’t think of a single player that has gotten through concussion protocol in seven days or less this season), place Jamaal Charles on IR (… so he’s out), and (why not add one more thing?) Justin Houston hasn’t been himself as an edge rusher since returning from injury.
I was there last week when Jacksonville ate an entire bowl of dicks on national television. And I loved it because SHOWHEAT3 was backing the Titans against them. But Bortles has shown that he can hang points on you in a hurry. Yes, that’s been a lot of fourth quarter garbage stuff, but he CAN do it still, OK? I also think Yeldon is fine. And there are a bunch of dudes on that defense that can bang you. They look fearsome when they wear black uniforms! And last but not least, Gus Bradley must have something up his sleeve if he has been able to keep his job for this long. If he was ever going to demonstrate an ability to coach at this level, now is the time.
An injured as all hell Chiefs team that everyone is holding a place for in the playoffs based on… I’m not sure. The only top team they’ve played is Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh destroyed them. They got the better of a too-big-for-their-britches Raiders squad a few weeks ago, and beat a Chargers team in Week 1 in OT, but the rest? All shitty opponents. This isn’t to say the Jaguars are any good. They aren’t. But the Chiefs are getting a whole lot of respect and I’m not sure it’s warranted.
Let’s wait to bet on the Chiefs in a week where they are healthy and not overwhelmingly popular, shall we?
DAL -7.5 at CLE
The Cowboys are also rather popular, at this moment being selected by some 30% of all entries. There are two drawbacks I see. The first is Dak showing some wobbles last week. The other is Josh McCown continuing to flirt with the first win of the season.
McCown should have beat the Jets last week, and now he gets Corey Coleman back. They had something going on together in the first few weeks of the season. The downside for them is going to be in stopping Ezekiel Elliott. I’m just not sure they have anyone that can remotely stop the run.
But if there were ever going to be a shocking Dallas loss, it probably starts with their best corner being out for some time (…) and Dak delivering multiple turnovers (…) to a team that can run it (…) and also has a deep threat or two to keep you honest.
Call me old-fashioned, but I am rooting for the Browns getting the“get the monkey off my back” first win of the season against Dak so that Romo gets his job back. Winning is important, sure, and those wins Dak helped deliver mean a lot to the Cowboys’ season. But Romo to Dez is the missing element that will make this Dallas team top tier. Even if you just treat Dez as a play action threat, you need a quarterback in their with the knowledge and the arm strength to get Dez the ball in deep one-on-one coverage when the rest of the defense slouches on the run threat!
Also, if you wait on Dallas you will get a number of chances to use them again (at home) (with Romo back under center).
Summary
At this early point in the week, I will advise my colleagues (Dad and the Piper) that we:
a) Pass on the Falcons. Road team that I don’t trust on a Thursday night? No thank you.
b) Talk about taking the Chargers and Vikings as we approach the weekend.
I will let you know what we decide before kickoff Sunday. May God have mercy on all of us ahead of election Tuesday next week.
Thanks for reading!
-damms29
