Making Markets on the Stark Kids: Oathbreaker

As far as I know, there are no betting markets covering Game of Thrones possible developments (I’ve done no research to confirm this). But FiveThirtyEight has me thinking probabilistically, and I’d like to bring that sort of thinking to the Song of Ice and Fire story. Why? Well, it seems that whenever those FiveThirtyEight guys are discussing some uncertain outcome, they prefer to talk about it in terms of probability. Whether it be how many wins the Warriors will finish the regular season with, how likely a candidate is to win a given state’s primary, how likely a team is to win a game they are in the middle of playing, FiveThirtyEight just loves assigning probabilities to things. Given that they are rather smart and rather good data journalists, I would guess that’s a smart way to think about uncertain outcomes rather than making flat-out, all-or-nothing predictions. So that’s what I plan to do with predictions about Game of Thrones.

The only issue is that assigning probabilities doesn’t have the same wow-factor as making bold predictions. If I think something can happen, and then I say it’s somewhat likely to happen, and then it happens, observers will see that and say, “well, you weren’t sure it would happen.” And I wouldn’t get that much credit. Conversely, if I think something could happen, and say it’s not very likely but possible, then it happens, I might get very little credit from an outside observer.

To combat this, we will first establish a baseline of what the public perception is regarding some event happening, then my assignment of probabilities versus those baseline odds will let the reader see whether I think the odds of something occurring is higher or lower than the “market.” Because there is no market, I will have to just give these baseline odds the old “lick your finger and put it in the air”treatment to determine which way the winds (of winter… get it?) are blowing. Regarding what I will actually put odds on, I’ll try to focus on shorter term plot developments because I plan on making this a weekly installment. However, some longer term predictions will be necessary (because they’ll be interesting). For clarity, the format for putting odds on predictions will be as follows: Eventuality — Public’s Probability % — My Probability % — Explanation.

Sansa meets Jon on-screen next episode? — public odds 60% — my odds 35% — Yay! How long it has been since any of the Starks (OK Jon is a Targeryan, so how about “the children raised by Ned”) have seen one another! Sansa is close enough to the Wall to get there in a single episode of travel, so the only way we won’t see the two of them reunite is… Wait. There are Northern lords hunting her, and they all suspect she’s going to the Wall (how un-Littlefinger of her to do what is expected). What if these Northern lords find her? What if she has a two or three episode plot arc of a) being detained by seemingly evil Northern lords only to b) find that they support her but only in secret due to their family members being held captive by Ramsay? Could this be how the Great Northern Conspiracy is unfurled? What if Wyman Manderly himself, with great physical difficulty, bends the knee to the Queen in the North, Sansa Stark? We certainly need more than just the ten remaining members of the Night’s Watch and the Wildlings to go to battle against that long line of Bolton shields in the Bastard Bowl previewed in the Season 6 trailer. (Note — I would be plenty happy if Sansa DID make it to the Wall, but I am starting to doubt very greatly that she will. Also, there is a Littlefinger-in-the-snow scene from one of the Season 6 trailers. Maybe he is the one that sets her off course…)

Gift to Ramsay is Rickon? — 60% — 40% — I reread the Pink Letter the other day, and it is of course a catalyst for the Bastard Bowl in the books. For the show, without Mance, maybe Ramsay killing Rickon is the instigation that gets Jon to mobilize? So then Ramsay will send Jon Rickon’s head? Ri ght after Sansa tells Jon that Theon didn’t kill the real Bran and Rickon? Pretty ruthless, but in line with Ramsay I guess, and probably more exciting for TV audiences then a letter sealed with pink wax (wait, did the showrunners make the Bolton colors Blue and Red instead of pink? I am just noticing this. I don’t like this). But I cannot shake the feeling that Rickon is going to be protected in the books by members of the Great Northern conspiracy, and that would be a pretty severe way to alter Rickon’s arc. Maybe the gift IS Rickon, but he isn’t present and the Great Northern Conspiracy lords are able to free him before Ramsay gets to him? I’ll just hope it’s not him in the first place.

Tower of Joy flashback via Bran? — 90% — 99% — Cannot wait to watch this. If they simply set the scene and don’t show us the battle in this next episode, shame on them. But I’m pretty confident that won’t happen. Howland Reed for the win.

Assuming Tower of Joy, will Bran see Ned speaking with Lyanna? — 70% — 35% — I do not think this is the best way to tell the story of Jon’s birth. I would much prefer that we see this awesome action scene and that it introduces the viewer to Howland Reed, bearer of the secret of what Ned found out when he entered the Tower after the first. But if the showrunners are intent on the exposition of Jon’s heritage via Bran and so soon, I guess I could see that happening? For my money, I think we are more likely to get a great melee style fight, with everyone dying but Ned and Howland, and that’s all we see. Maybe at the end Bran asks Brynden about the man that saved Ned. End scene. Great! But if they are going to move the action inside, maybe Lyanna is in the middle of giving birth? Bran and Brynden Rivers follow Ned inside, but they miss the beginning of the conversation, just catching the “Promise me, Ned.” He responds, “I promise… What’s his name?” “Jon.” End episode. But really, please give us Howland, bearer of the secret and bearing down on Jon (or Sansa) to reveal it.

If Bran does not see Lyanna this episode, will Howland (eventually) be the Jon-parentage revealer? 20% — 90% — I think the show is setting us up to expect that Bran is only one who will know and the only one who can tell. And even if we don’t see Lyanna, I think most viewers still think that our novice student of Westerosi history will uncover the secret and will meet up with Jon to tell him. I just don’t see that physical meeting with Jon or even with Sansa happening any time soon. So I still think the purpose is to show us who Howland is, and I’ll be doubly convinced of that if we do not see Lyanna’s death scene this episode. Somehwere, Howland knows that he is only living person who knows the truth about Jon, and since Ned’s death he has been trying to find him (or Sansa) to tell him (or her) the truth.

Is the Hound alive? — 30% — 85% — Show-only viewers think there’s a chance the Hound is alive, but they wouldn’t call it more likely than not. I definitely think he’s alive (and will be instrumental in Cersei’s fall), but there is certainly the chance that the show is steering away from the Clegane Bowl in favor of some Jaime focused story line.

Euron Wins Kingsmoot next episode? — 75% — 92% — I think Euron’s boats have to get all the way to Mereen in order to have Dany and Tyrion heading for Westeros by the end of this season. So crown him so he can get started. And I think Yara (Asha) joins those boats on their voyage eastward, taking over the Victarion plot (Season 6 trailer has her kissing a topless woman in what looks like a decidedly warmer climate than the Iron Islands). If they’re going, they had better start soon.

Theon arrives home in time for Kingsmoot? — 50% — 15% — As I think the Kingsmoot is going to happen quickly, for Theon to make it home in time to see it then he would have to get to the coast, get in a boat, and get to the Iron Islands in a great big hurry. Part of me does not see how he gets through the treacherous North and returns back home at all, but another part of me thinks that the show brought him low and has to let him begin his ascent. I think it’s 40% he makes it back to Iron Islands this season, and more likely that he is involved in the Bastard Bowl and redeems himself that way. There is a lot of Northern plot the show had to pare down (Mance, the six wildling women under cover, the wildling princess, Mance’s son, Lyanna Mormont, etc.), so perhaps Theon picks up some of that slack?

Jon Remains Lord Commander of Night’s Watch — 25% — 65% — “I pledge my life and honor to the Night’s Watch, for this night and all the nights to come.” I keep reading theories that his death frees him from the oath of the Night’s Watch. That’s not what the words say! ALL. THE. NIGHTS. TO. COME. He already rejected being Stannis’ Warden of the North, and I don’t think the potential character shift caused by his death and rebirth will make him less selfless or less committed to his duties and his oath. He can still join/lead an army opposing Ramsay as that accomplishes the goal of caliming things down in the North so that a united North with the aid of the wildlings and the remaining brothers of the Night’s Watch can focus on the coming White Walkers.

Daenerys Heel Turn — 5% — 50% — I think Daenerys is in the endgame, but she has more of the mad parts of King Aerys inside her than she likes to admit. She is a good leader, frees slaves, etc. But she is also very focused on her lineage granting her the right to lead (look at her title! “Daenerys Targaryen, the First of Her Name, Queen of Meereen, Queen of the Andals and the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms, Protector of the Realm, Khaleesi of the Great Grass Sea, called Daenerys Stormborn, the Unburnt, Mother of Dragons”), and I think one of the themes of the books is that names mean nothing. My pet theory is that at some point her greed causes her to choose a seat on the Iron Throne over helping Jon and others combat the coming darkness. A classic WWE heel turn. If Jon has to die before being the story’s hero, why is she allowed to be the heroine without any true character growth? She got lost in the desert, then captured by this latest Khal. But did she grow? Has she learned anything? Was there ever a hint of grey in her moral psyche? More than anything else, this story is about the different shades of grey in a person. Jaime is a member of the evil Lannisters, pushes Bran out a window, and hurts Ned :(, but we also see there is good in him. As we have followed the story, we now find ourselves rooting for him! Tyrion killed his father, and he’s one of the fan favorites! Nothing is black and white, and I think the blinding white line that has shined on Daenerys throughout the story will be significantly dimmed before her fate is sealed.

Looking forward seeing How(land) this all plays out. If you have any Game of Thrones eventuality you’d like me to throw some odds on, ask in the comments!