Making Markets on the Stark Kids: The Winds of Winter

I can’t help but get my back up a bit when I see the title of this episode. If you didn’t know, The Winds of Winter is the title of the sixth book in the series of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin, due out in November 2015. That’s not a typo; it was actually expected to be released then. Yes, months before this season of Game of Thrones was supposed to start. So the ham-handed borrowing of that title for the finale of season six of the show hits a nerve for me and probably for other readers of the books. The obvious question being: “how differently would this all have felt if the book had come out first?”

And the answer to that question is rather simply “a lot.” But as mad as the choice makes me, that’s not the purpose of this article. So let’s focus back on what the title could mean for the show, especially as it comes attached to the finale (and how any season finale so far has been filled to the brim with surprises, cliffhangers, and deaths).

I think the most literal reading of the title forces one to consider the pending invasion of the White Walkers. Their presence is often accompanied by night, snow, and high winds. In short: winter. But are they going to be breaking south of the Wall already? Or are we going to learn something of their history, motive, or abilities that we didn’t know before? Does this mean Bran will be central to the plot this week? If he is (or the White Walkers are), what sort of surprise are we in store for?

What else could the title be referencing? True, not many titles this season have portended multiple meanings the way I have been expecting, but it’s always a possibility. With respect to this episode, will it throw Jon and Sansa’s victory by the wayside and highlight the war that awaits them? Can “winter” surprisingly spring upon other characters like Daenerys, Jaime, Cersei, the Hound, Maregery, Tyrion? If it did, I doubt it would be something literal like snow, so how can those individuals be laid low or barren by the narrative? It is not very obvious to me. So maybe the title is meant to make us focus on the North, the Starks, and the White Walkers. Or maybe, even more simply it’s just an homage to the title Martin chose for the book with which this season coincides.

As always, we’ll have to see how the themes or major reveals unravel before knowing for sure what the title means, but that won’t stop us from laying our odds. [Format, once again is: Question? My odds. Market odds. Explanation]

Sam goes to Old Town? 90. 70. I still think he will (where else can he go), but the bigger question is what will Sam’s cliffhanger be? Or if he needs one at all. The (partially contrived) stealing of Heartsbane sets up a conflict with his father, and maybe he’ll need to be saved? But maybe that will wait until next year…

Randyll Tarly appears in finale? 18. 30. I can see him playing an important role in Sam’s arc, but is that really necessary to see before next year? Hardly the type of cliffhanger we have come to expect from the finale.

Gilly does the whole undercover thing to get into the Citadel? 30. 10. I’m less sure this happens, and I’m also really not that excited about it happening. What role can Gilly play in the endgame of the show? If all I want from the Citadel is for it to teach Sam, send him back North, and be quick about it, do we really need Gilly alive at all? If she isn’t going to pull a Rodney-Dangerfield’s-Ladybugs thing, maybe she’s killed off (with Little Sam?!?!) in order to give the fans a shocking death and allow Sam to more nimbly move around the map? Given that Sam gave his daddy a reason to be angry and that Randyll is famously cruel and unforgiving, maybe Gilly’s time in this world will be short…

Bran goes… to the Wall (Castle Black)? 80. 50. I think Bran needs to play a big role in the finale. We need, in no particular order, 1) to be shown where he is headed, 2) to finish some of the flashbacks that were begun earlier this season, 3) to see if he is aware of Jon/Sansa’s victory (and his status as Lord of Winterfell), 4) to make sure he is safe from the White Walkers regardless of where he’s going. There’s a lot to be done. The only thing I feel pretty strongly about is that he is headed toward the Wall and ultimately to Castle Black. There are simply no other characters of note north of the Wall for him to seek out and no other locations north of the Wall for him to seek refuge. I also feel a bit strongly that he is outside of the game of thrones that Sansa/Littlefinger are playing, so establishing him as the Lord of Winterfell would be a step away from the endgame against the coming darkness that we do not need. So then…

Bran becomes Lord of Winterfell at any point? 10. 45. When Aegor Rivers became the Three-Eyed Raven/Crow, he removed himself from the ladder of chaos and focused on the bigger picture. Even if Bran reunites with Sansa and Jon, I would expect him to denounce his title and allow Sansa to keep it. There are simply bigger fish to fry, as it were.

Lady Stoneheart? 75. 5. Do it. Just fucking do it already. Every week I think about this, I give it more and more of a chance, and I’m probably crazy to be doing so. But why else have we resurrected the Brotherhood? Why have Jaime, Brienne, Thoros, Beric and the Hound all converged on the Riverlands? Couldn’t we have done without the story of how the Freys took Riverrun (it was boring)? Did we even need to see old-ass Walder again (he’s disgusting)? Maybe there is some other plot afoot, like the Brotherhood taking the Twins and slaying the Freys because they’ve been bad to the smallfolk? Could be, but it doesn’t ring true to me. For some reason the Brotherhood is talking about the North, and I am hoping it’s because Lady Stoneheart is pulling the strings. I hope she comes back, maybe completely done up in CGI. But why resurrect her in the books if she’s of zero importance to the story as told by the show? LADY. STONEHEART. RISES.

Arya lands in Westeros this week? 75. 85. I have to admit this is likely and is the logical next step for her arc. But a small part of me wonders why they’d rush it. The only cool way they could do it is if they have Arya at the right hand of Lady Stoneheart during the reveal, implying that Arya has been in Westeros for a while now, found her resurrected mother, and is fully committed to her quest for revenge (against the Freys). It’s more likely that she lands in Westeros in the Riverlands and comes across the Brotherhood and the Hound. But there are cool, cool ways to do this that involve Lady Stoneheart herself.

We see Jorah again? 80. 70. Maybe not this season, but he will be back. If they wanted him gone, they’d have accelerated the greyscale and let him die a hero’s death helping to free Daenerys. But no. They made him go “search for a cure.” I could see this leading the show to (F’)Aegon, but why rush it in the finale?

Varys leaving Meereen JUST before a seige started is dodgy and will lead to him in some crazy and selfish plot? 80. 25. I’ll bring this forward from last week: “This was very suspect, and it’s even more suspect now that we know he didn’t meet up with Yara and Theon. Where was he going!? I know he said Westeros, but what the hell will he actually do there? Wouldn’t Dany landing with dragons be enough to win swords to her side (or at least force her enemies to surrender)? What can Varys do that a mounted Daenerys cannot?”

Tyrion rides a dragon soon? 70. 55. I will also bring this forward from last week: “Give him a dragon! Rhaegal looks like he’d be super happy with Tyrion on his back. Make it happen!”

Cersei blows up the Sept of Baelor? 93. 60. Even the casual fan must have seen a) the wild fire stored somewhere in the city and b) this wild fire exploding in a way it simply has not yet exploded in the past. That means that Bran saw a) a possible past that didn’t occur (not in line with his past-viewing that we’ve seen) or b) a possible future event. I think the latter is more likely, and I think that Qyburn was talking about the wild fire when he said “the rumors are true.” So Cersei knows about the wild fire, wants the High Sparrow dead, and needs a way out if she loses her trial. YUPPPP. All signs point to BOOM!

Jaime kills Cersei if she blows up the Sept? 5. 20. Note, this assumes she blows up the Sept. But even so, I just don’t see him doing this. Valonqar satisfaction be damned.

Aside - The prophecy of Maggy the Frog regarding Cersei’s children and her death is as follows:

“Gold shall be their crowns and gold their shrouds, she said. And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you.”

Tommen executes her if she blows up the Sept? 10. 20. Obviously this does not jive with the prophecy, and I am virtually certain that prophecy will prove true (even if it is only true through a lens of suspended disbelief). Cersei must live to see her children die, including Tommen, and only then will she be choked to death by someone who is a little brother of some sort (wow, kind of sad).

Speaking of Maergery, if Cersei doesn’t blow it all to pieces, does Maerge orchestrate some maneuver that somehow helps Cersei/hurts the throne? 90. 40. Brought forward — “We will have to wait and see, but as I said last week, great pains were taken to demonstrate how Maergery is playing the faith and feigning piousness.”

Jaime makes it back to King’s Landing for Cersei’s trial, however it unfolds? 1. 1. Wow. I for sure thought he’d be there, but now I’m like emoji-100 that he won’t be. But why is he at the Twins? What purpose does this serve? (note: as Dorne on the show revealed to us, not every single storyline is crucial to the overall story)

Daenerys sets sail? 90. 70. The only thing tempering my expectations (and only barely) is that Meereen will be in a periolous situation if she leaves. Unless, of course, she leaves a large contingent to take care of the city? Missandei, Grey Worm, and the Unsullied perhaps? Sure, she could use their help in Westeros, but isn’t their destiny more fully… fulfilled if they stay and maintain a slave-free Meereen? Either way, get the fuck to Westeros already, Dany. We need you.

Jon and Sansa play nice but meet with some surprise that cliffhangs them? 75. 40. I don’t think the casual viewer can imagine a big cliffhanger for the Stark kids after all they’ve been through the past few weeks. But what about learning Jon’s heritage? It would relieve the pressure building between them (Jon would have no claim), turn Jon’s eyes toward the larger story (Iron Throne/White Walkers), and put to bed one of the biggest unresolved plots in the book or show. And look, there’s lots of ways to do this! Rickon will be buried in the crypt? That crypt could be VERY important (say, if there is a silver-stringed harp in Lyanna’s tomb???)! Also, Littlefinger is around, and I could see him knowing more about this than he has ever let on. It would also advance his aims by a) creating chaos for the overall game of thrones and b) leaving Sansa (to his knowledge) as the sole claimant to Winterfell. Also, HOWLAND CAN SHOW UP!!! Now that the Boltons’ revolt has been put to rest, the North is a much safer place. He also would know where Jon is in the world if he wanted to, say, go find him and tell him his parentage!

Sansa fends off a Littlefinger love overture? 45. 85. Yes, this is likely, but it wouldn’t preclude the possibility of a Jon Targaryen reveal. “I thought you knew [why I did this and what I wanted], Sansa?” Sure, Littlefinger loved Catelyn, but as creepy as he was in the books, I can’t see him claiming in earnest that he did it all for love. In the books, he is actively trying to marry Sansa off to Harry the Heir (or perhaps to Robin if the story turns that way?), and never seems to let his care for Sansa to turn toward active pursuit of her hand in marriage. He is more complex than this, and he wants more than Winterfell. Tying himself to that seat prevents him from sowing seeds of chaos elsewhere, and the last thing he wants is to be tied to a seat that isn’t the Iron Throne. Hey: playas gonna play.

Jaime dies? 5. 25. No! Why would the Freys do this? Of course, the Freys could die too, but allow us to savor the setup a bit more than this, won’t you? Jaime is a tier A cast member, and none of them have died yet (barring Ned, but that was always going to happen). He lives on, and he remains one of most intriguing characters on the show. Let him help save the world (if not his sister)!

Loras is executed? 60. 30. He wants to fess up to his guilt despite Maerge telling him not to. And when he does, I don’t think the High Sparrow will be as lenient as he was with other characters. He treats Maregery’s loyalty as its own entity and probably doesn’t deign to owe her any favors. Also, if Loras is dispatched upon seeking leniency, Cersei’s hand will be forced onto the trigger. Blow it all to hell, bitch!

Whatever happens, season six has by far been the most satisfying yet. Maybe that’s because a streamlined story is easier to tell, and we’ve now arrived at a lot of places more quickly than we have in the books? Maybe it’s because we’ve had more characters come back to us (Jon to life, Hound the same, Arya (allegedly) to Westeros, Dany back from the Great Grass Sea, etc.) than we have lost? Either way, even as I look over my shoulder for the other shoe to drop (and for like ten characters to die in the finale), I am happy with how lucky we have been to see our favorite characters earn some happiness, success, or revenge. Let it continue, but if it doesn’t, let the surprises be worth it. And above all else, enjoy this as there is only…

One.

More.

Episode!