Report Card on Betting Starks: The Broken Man
I know we didn’t make any markets for this week’s episode, The Broken Man (don’t worry, more markets coming this week, fresh slate!), but I would still like to take a look at the big plot reveals and twists that have been unveiled of late with respect to how likely we thought they were before they happened. The below eventualities (that have now happened) will be in no particular order whatsoever. If you forgot, the format for discussion will be: Proposition? My odds (out of 100). Public perceived odds. Explain.
Tommen siding with the High Sparrow? 20. 10. They were certainly showing hints on the show that King Tommen Lannister Baratheon was cozying up to the High Sparrow, but I never thought he would cut off the scheming of his parents mother and uncle before blood was shed in the city. Did his maneuver prevent blood from flowing in the streets? Sure. Does it exacerbate the problem of having a schemy and cunning High Sparrow with means to enforce his own will? Yes it does. Does Tommen seem to be aware that Maergery is simply acting to achieve her own ends? Please. This is the same soft nugget that obsesses with Ser Pounce. He is a dunce to be remembered in history as King Tommen the Naive.
Jaime being removed as Commander of the Kingsguard (without Cersei/Tommen losing power entirely)? 10. 30. I did not think this was likely with the Lannisters still in power, but in hindsight it’s a much more reasonable way to get Jaime into the Riverlands. By the way, what’s the make up of the Kingsguard on the show right now? Trant died, Jaime out, and I can’t really name any of the others that were left besides the Mountain. Hm.
Maergery feigning piousness to play the game of thrones? 75. 40. It says quite a bit about your commitment to your goals when you’re willing to let your brother bang the King that just that day named you his Queen. She is a legitimate player of the game, and she will likely continue opposing Cersei (if only to inadvertently keep her from seeing Daenerys coming).
Coldhands saves Bran and Meera? 90. 40. The casual show-only viewer had no idea who Coldhands was.
Benjen saves Bran and Meera? 20. 80. The casual show-only viewer had no idea who Coldhands was.
Coldhands being Benjen; Benjen being Coldhands (or at least the show’s version)? 5. ?. 😢 I am glad Benjen is back, but he isn’t alive. It’s not a fate I’d wish on a Stark. I wish I didn’t have to open the scab of Benjen being dead already.
Arya (so far) leaving the Faceless Men? 10. 50. I guess the writing was on the wall as she was forced to confront a (humorous) retelling of the events that affected her family so greatly. I am still not sure if this is how the books will go (why spend all that time developing the Faceless Men if only using it as a placeholder to occupy Arya while time moves on in elsewhere?), but I certainly didn’t see it coming on the show. Now that she’s so close to getting back home (?), though, the show won’t just let her die… right?
The waif getting the drop on Arya? 25. 25. We all were looking for a fair fight I think. But no, the waif resorted to some cloak and dagger nonsense. Jaqen told you not to let her suffer! At least we can look forward to the chase scene that was shown in this season’s trailer?
Hound returning? 95. 50. I’m glad this is resolved. Let’s get to the Cleganebowl!
Sam stealing Heartsbane (and Indian-giving Gilly and Little Sam to House Tarly)? 2. 15. I was shocked by this. Yes, I know it’s important for Valyrian Steel to be put to work against the White Walkers, but Sam just is not a guy I would see doing this to his own House. He’s still a coward! Will he bring it to the Citadel and reverse engingeer more of it? Would be kind of a cool even if it would cheapen the fans’ dedication to these sacred and rare blades. I’m on the fence about what I want out of Sam. Please just go to the Citadel.
Bran drinking boiled rabbit’s blood? 0. 0. :( Just no more.
Bran’s visions revealing exploding wild fire and/or Aerys Targaeryan? 1. 1. No one saw this coming, and it was really cool. Some thoughts on this. First, if they bothered casting Aerys, I have a feeling we a scene involving him in full. Second, the exploding wild fire was a surprise. Is this a) an avoided timeline of the past or b) a possible future timeline. And third, Catelyn? Lady Stoneheart please! More on that later in the week.
I think a lot of what’s happened has limited what can and cannot happen going forward with season six, but not all is clear. Check in ahead of the next episode for some more markets.
