The ACT pre-ICO — Crunching the numbers

Act supports the extent and capability of citizens to hold the state accountable and make it responsive to their needs. It is a next-generation organisation that aggregates funding from citizens targeting change, and organises decision-making on an immutable blockchain.

Update 8th January: Please note much of the information in this document is outdated. We have not revised it. Please view more current posts here in Medium, the updated white paper and other news.

Quick facts

  • $1000 contributed at the start of the pre-ICO secures the same ACT Token allocation as $10,000 contributed during the ICO
  • 15% of all platform revenue will be used to reward proposal curators, where reward-Tokens derive their value from ACT Tokens
  • Over 178 million people from 194 countries regularly use online-petition websites to support Social Justice causes

Read the ACT white paper

Donation campaign basics

  1. Pre-ICO: 17:00 CEST (08:00 PDT) 18th July 2017–1st August 2017
  2. Pre-release access: Close of pre-ICO — 18th November 2017
  3. ICO: 18th November 2017–18th January 2018

Campaign bonus structure

  • Pre-ICO Platinum — 10x
  • Pre-ICO Gold — 5x
  • Pre-ICO Silver — 2.5x
  • Pre-Release Access — 2x
  • ICO-1x

See this article for conditions that apply to pre-ICO bonuses

Step 1 — Token Price

Arbitrary values

  • Amount raised before 17:00 CEST 25th July (half way) — $600,000
  • Amount raised at the end of the pre-ICO — $1,100,000
  • Amount raised at the end of pre-release access — $2,000,000
  • Amount raised at the end of the ICO — 6,000,000

Amount for purposes of Token price evaluation — $11,050,000

How the initial ACT Token price would be calculated

  • Total number of ACT Token issued— 10,000,000,000 (10 billion)
  • Percentage offered in donation campaigns — 82.5%
  • ACT Token offered in donation campaigns — 8,250,000,000

Initial price — $0.00133939 (this is based on the above arbitrary values)

Step 2 — Platform Revenues

Arbitrary values

  • 10 million users by Year 10
  • On average users buy $0.1 Votes per month

Revenue distributed to curators in Year 10 “R” — $1,800,000

  • Growth curve: Y = R * (t / P) ^ 0.5
  • t=year, P=period

Step 3 — Donation specifics

Arbitrary values

  • Donation-$1000
  • Bonus applied- 10x
  • Number of ACT Tokens allocated- 746,606
  • Percentage of Tokens allocated - 0.009%
  • Curation effort — 0.02% of total curation

Donator revenue in Year 10–$31,072

Assumptions:

  • Revenue per user per month is constant over time
  • On the ACT platform, curation reward will be a factor of curation effort, success rating, timeliness of curation, marketing performance, and number of ACTION held, however, for the purpose of this analysis we have considered only curation effort and number of ACTION with a simple weighing 3:1. The other factors are considered equal among all other curators. It is assumed that all ACT held is converted to ACTION.
  • Curation effort on each proposal equal

Step 4— Calculating the Net Present Value of a contribution at pre-ICO

Arbitrary values

  • Nominal Interest Rate (I)— 5%

PV = R/((1+I/100)^Y)

Net Present Value — $81,943

Step 5- Stress test

Arbitrary values

  • Revenue available to disperse to proposals in year 10—$10,200,000
  • Average award of successful proposals — $1000
  • Overall proposal success rate 6%
  • Number of proposals received in year 10 — 1,020,000

Maximum curation effort (in Year 10) is 3,600 proposals per year, or an average of 10 proposals per day

Assumptions

With 20 million members Change.org received 15000 new petitions per month. We have assumed that because ACT funds proposals, twice as many will be received.

What does this analysis mean?

According to this analysis, which assumes that average site members voting on proposals contribute just over $1 to the site each year, our pre-ICO participant who contributed $1000 and was allocated 746,606 ACT Tokens, generated curation rewards with a net present value of $81,943 (over ten years) by vetting at most 10 proposals per day. Projected value of his/her ACT Token is not part of this assessment.

This suggests two things:

  1. ACT Tokens will be in high demand, their value potentially growing as the platform grows.
  2. Competition for curation rewards will drive proposal quality to high standards.

Growth potential

According to Forbes, in 2012 for-profit social enterprise Change.org had revenues over $15 million a year with 20 million members. If was founded in 2007 therefore took 5 years to reach this size but, in fact, it did not start charging until 2010. The site’s revenue comes from petition-makers sponsoring their content to promote it on the site and at that time it received approximately 180,000 petitions annually.

Further analysis

  1. The spreadsheet from which this analysis is derived is available. Please contact us.
  2. If you wish to go through these numbers with one of the ACT Team you can schedule a session here.
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