I Just Have a Lot of Feelings About Asean, Okay??
I’ve got one this week in the Asia Times about Indonesia’s Setya Novanto and social media and where the two meet (published prior to the latest mess) and another on Queensland’s Carmichael mine/Adani if you’re in to that sort of thing.
But this is East Asia Summit week so it’s all about Asean! I’ve got a piece in Lowy’s Interpreter this week touching on the real standout issues (Rohingya, Marawi City, migrant workers and where to next). I would really recommend reading that before jumping in on this one lest you get the idea that this stuff is the takeaways, not just the things I’ve personally obsessed over.
But firstly, I think we all need to take a moment to cackle in delight over this helpful hint from Rappler’s Natashya Gutierrez in response to international media’s habit of shorthanding ‘bilateral’.
(I don’t really care about APEC, so apologies if you came here for that)
See you next week!
Migrant Workers Win!
I touch on this in the Lowy piece (seriously, read it) so I won’t rehash it too much but I want to underline just why it’s so important. There’s a lot of assumed knowledge when it comes to discussing migrant workers in Southeast Asia which I think doesn’t work for an international audience. Indonesia and the Philippines are the two biggest countries sending migrant workers and have been exceptionally outspoken on migrant worker rights. I was really struck by the first few months of the Jokowi presidency in which his foreign policy agenda was almost solely migrant worker focused. Likewise, Duterte has heavily engaged with the safety of migrant workers (known in the Philippines as OFWs) ensuring time for visits with the local OFW communities while abroad and working on domestic legislation.
Singapore and Malaysia are the two largest in-bound countries for migrant workers in the region. Both countries have pushed fairly hard against establishing regional labour laws. But, after years of hard work from local activists and NGOs as well as increasing media coverage of migrant worker abuses, now is the best time to get a consensus. Obviously, it’s way too early to tell how much of an impact this will have, but I personally am going to celebrate it. This is one of the biggest issues in the region that hardly gets any notice and Asean should be very proud of what it achieved here.
🇨🇦 A Canadian Masterclass in Diplomacy 🇨🇦
Frankly, I was left shooketh by how well Canadian PM Justin Trudeau played this one. He’s not a familiar face for Southeast Asia watchers and this was his first time addressing Asean, so how he does on the world stage is usually something I observe via Buzzfeed posts. But when he rolled into town and headed straight to Jollibees I was low-key impressed, with a press-pack following his every movement in Manila from then on, including a ride on the new e-jeepneys in Makati. Manila media has pointed out he’s one of the world’s most popular politicians and the Philippines is no exception. And he’s leveraged that popularity for two brilliant strokes: shore up support among the large Philippine diaspora which now calls Canada home and to ensure a bit more coverage of his one-on-one with Duterte, during which he was one of few leaders to bring up human rights.
There are around 700,000 Filipino-Canadians — enough to see the first Canadian Jollibees open next year — which is a sizeable portion of the voting population. I personally think it’s exceptionally important for western leaders to engage with countries from where its immigrants hail in order to diffuse weird demands for full assimilation. And Trudeau has shown how easy — and fun! — it can be to effectively do that in just a few short days.
The trending hashtags and favourable comments on news stories gave Trudeau a bit more authority to touch on human rights during the Canada-Philippines bilateral meeting on the sideline of the summit. Many a leader has tried (or not tried at all, USA) to get its message out to not just Duterte, but the Filipino people, saying the world is watching and it isn’t liking. In a region where sovereignty and nationalism walk a fine line together, this is a delicate balance which few achieve. Honestly, I’m not sure how to measure that achievement but I think the Gallagher Brothers rule is a good guide: if he swears about you, you’ve made a mark. And good Lord, did he make a mark.
Trudeau told US press he hadn’t intended to focus so much on human rights when talking with Duterte but felt obligated to after Trump had skipped the subject (he’s so good at this!). “I also mentioned human rights, the rule of law and specifically extrajudicial killings as being an issue that Canada is concerned with. The president was receptive to my comments and it was throughout a very cordial and positive exchange,” Bloomberg reported Trudeau as saying.
Duterte fired off immediately. His arguments are virtually the same as any other time he’s been criticised, lashing out at Trudeau: you’re not from here, you don’t get it, I’m the president. In the final press conference after the summit, Duterte was asked about the exchange to which he said Trudeau needs to lay off his bullshit. Well, that’s Duterte. And I think Trudeau should be applauded for starting a conversation so many refused.
As an aside, Duterte and Trudeau also spoke on these piles and piles of garbage from Ottawa which has been rotting away in the Port of Manila for four years. Trudeau promised Duterte he’d sort it out asap.
🇳🇿 Jacinda Ardern — Fresh Air at Last! 🇳🇿
I was watching the live feed of all the leaders rock up on the opening night (I’m a NERD okay, this is just who I am now) and I was so excited to see New Zealand’s very fresh Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern arrive. It was so great to see her hope out the car absolutely beaming, visibly stoked to be there. A beautiful change of pace from someone such as Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen whose facial expression relayed the level of enthusiasm of someone deeply accustomed to Asean, or Trump who I’m not convinced even knew where he was.
Ardern was Duterte’s final bilateral meeting and I suspect he was well and truly over it, leading to this deeply weird exchange about atomic bombs, Auckland fish and Iran. In another life, the thought of Duterte and Ardern having to converse would be a comedy for the ages but I think they both did well in trying to find themselves some middle ground. Ardern did well in trying to steer the conversation toward rights and safety for all, while Duterte did a brilliant job in totally dodging it.
I’m not sure NZ’s appearance at the summit necessitates its own dedicated section in this week’s newsletter, I just really like Ardern. These meetings are so often just Aung San Suu Kyi and the few women ministers from across the region, it is exciting to see a new addition to a bloc which must have the shortest female toilet queues this side of OPEC.
🇦🇺 Where Were You, Turnbull? 🇦🇺
Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is failing domestically and boy did he not fare much better heading OS. I feel a real way about this, so let me just get this out of the way: Australia’s involvement in counter-terror operations with the Philippines is great as well as the role it is playing in the South China Sea and I hope it helps make a real difference in the region.
But what are we actually doing? This is the East Asia Summit! Why is Trudeau trending at Jollibee at Asean while Turnbull is treating a banh mi like an alien delicacy at APEC. Why none of his staffers shoved a balut down his throat while talking about the importance of Philippine leadership in the bloc this year is a mystery. How do we continue having these landmark speeches back home about the Asian Century and where Australia fits into it, only to fritter away these vital opportunities getting stood up by Americans and overshadowed by Kiwis.
Australia needs to develop a cohesive, bipartisan plan for how to exercise and develop our soft power within Southeast Asia immediately or be left behind. Southeast Asia does not need Australia, these calls for closer engagement have always been for Australia’s benefit so the idea that just showing up is enough will never get us there. Our hard power exercises — the counter-terror efforts, the closed doors diplomacy and so on — are better than ever, but it’s boring as hell. I’m an Australian who writes extensively on Asean and even I struggle to care.
🇰🇭 Teflon Hun Sen 🇰🇭
What a wasted opportunity for the world! Sure, we didn’t yet know the Supreme Court would dissolve the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) but we knew it was coming. And it’s not like that’s the first strike in a campaign to tighten Hun Sen’s grip on the country. Next year is going to be dominated by the Cambodian election (end of July, but we know the results now) and the frightening leap towards full totalitarianism — and the next opportunity for the world to turn towards the region will be after that date.
Activists and diplomats within Cambodia and the region have been sounding the alarm for months now, so this should have been a no-brainer. But, crickets. The failure to engage is exemplified by this snap of Hun Sen and Trump at the opening night. The US quickly sought to right the ship, with Senior Director for Asian Affairs Matt Pottinger and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Southeast Asia W. Patrick Murphy pulling aside Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn on the sidelines and reportedly making sure he knows the US is watching and is unhappy. Get your house in order, Trump! Hun Sen shot back.
It’s so frustrating to watch this go on and on and for some really involved Western diplomats and others based in the region be ignored back home.
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