Marawi City, Jakarta’s New Governor and a Lot of References to Trump
Hello friends,
Before we jump into it, two things.
Firstly, please read this from me at the Eureka Street which is a better thought out (and edited!) rant that has appeared here frequently on Australia’s failings in adequately addressing the Rohingya crisis.
Secondly, how is it mid-October already! This means I have just over two months to reach my 2017 subscriber goal. If you have a friend or colleague who you think would enjoy reading this newsletter each week please tell them to subscribe. I’m so close — I need this win!
See you next Friday,
🇵🇭 The Philippines 🇵🇭
Marawi City has been liberated! Or so said President Rodrigo Duterte on Tuesday, others will take more convincing. The city played host to the country’s longest-running urban siege which has left it all but destroyed. The military says the battle will continue for some time yet but told press it seemed closer than ever. Here’s the headline of the week: Isnilon Hapilon and Omar Maute were killed. The death of Hapilon is a huge win for counter-terror efforts in the region, with the bloke often referred to as the ‘emir’ of Islamic State in Southeast Asia. Omar Maute was one of the brothers which made up the Maute Group, a group which has combined its love of family and establishing an Islamic state in the southern province of Mindanao. He also loved fruit salad, in what has to be the oddest coverage of a terror insurgency this year.
So what next? The government has set aside cash to fund the rehabilitation of the city, which had been home 200,000 residents prior to the kick off in May, but no official plan is yet in place for how this will look or when it will be complete. Sidney Jones took to the Lowy Institute’s Interpreter to explain the possible next moves of fighters still in the Philippines warning that this isn’t over just because of some big name scalps.
A Quiapo ancestral house fights for survival. Duterte’s drug war enjoys widespread support, but why? A meeting between Trump and Duterte in Manila will surely be one for the ages. Bongbong Marcos, who fell short of winning VP last year against Leni Robredo, is possibly going to challenge Duterte for the top job next time around. Jeepney drivers have gone on strike again, protesting against public transport developments which could force them from the roads. There’s a bit of red-baiting going on here, analysts argue.
🇮🇩 Indonesia 🇮🇩
It’s Governor Anies Baswedan now, thank you very much. He was immediately slammed for his inauguration speech after using the term ‘pribumi’, meaning native or Indigenous Indonesian, and saying they need to rise up against ‘colonial’ influences. Apart from the fact that Anies is himself of non-Indonesian extraction and had been warned, you would hope he’d leave the divisive, racial rhetoric behind. This isn’t a dog whistle so much as a foghorn, but Jakarta isn’t falling for it. Here we go again. Jakarta’s new governor doubles down on identity. Who Was Jakarta’s Best-Dressed Governor (my pick is Jokowi, he has the same style as a lot of my male friends in Canberra which I don’t really get either)?
The biggest story of the week perhaps: the declassification of files which reveal the US was aware of the violence in 1965 and had indeed supported much of it. This isn’t a shock to anyone, from what I can tell, but it is heartening to see a bit of truth and oxygen. Here’s an interesting piece analysing the US response to these revelations.
The Chinese Indonesians with long memories and escape plans in case racial violence flares again — despite signs of tensions easing. Indonesia considers ban on “destructive” LGBT-related TV content. As Indonesia’s Parties Scramble, Jokowi Won’t Commit to Re-Election Bid. Setya sure bounced back.
🇰🇭 Cambodia🇰🇭
‘Seventy three year-old Prince Norodom Ranariddh, Hun Sen’s opponent in UN-supervised elections in 1993, has horrified Cambodia’s main opposition party with a call for it to be dissolved after its leader was charged with treason,’ Reuters reported. This is an interesting op-ed on the ‘understandable’ motivations behind PM Hun Sen’s attempts to fix the election. Police leaked naked photos of murdered singer San Sreylai, which is just about the most revolting thing I’ve heard this week. Plastic bags will cost you soon, here’s hoping Phnom Penh learns from Jakarta’s mistakes on this policy. 101 East takes a trip to the circus. Look at my friend Celia! What a woman!
Twitter has been chattering a lot about Hun Sen meeting Trump when he swings by this part of the world shortly, if you are covering this or have read a good piece on it please send it my way — my dream is an awkward confrontation, but I’m out of my element here.
🇸🇬 Singapore 🇸🇬
It’s my favourite time of year — it’s pre-taking the Asean chair speculation time! Singapore will take the reigns from the Philippines later this year and I’m excited. I feel like we expected a lot more argey-bargey with Manila in charge this year, particularly in the South China Sea, but that never came. Singapore is a neutral party in the SCS dispute but is key to balancing US and China in the region so expect some heavy-handed op-eds in the coming weeks. This fairly reasonable one on establishing the Code of Conduct in the SCS starts us off. PM Lee Hsien Loong is heading to Washington to meet Trump. (So much Trump this week!) He also hints the next PM is probably already in cabinet. I don’t think it’s a shock to anyone that the successor would already be someone well known and in the PAP inner-circle, but it’s been a bit quiet on that front so there we go.
🇲🇲 Myanmar 🇲🇲
Thant Myint-U’s piece ‘It is time to jettison the Myanmar fairytale’ for the Financial Times has to be one of the outlets most shared stories this week and my must-read pick. The numbers of fleeing Rohingya has surged again, with an additional 20,000 arriving in Bangladesh this week. India is not impressed, saying the group is a threat to national security (shock me).
“I don’t think he is a bad person, but even though he’s not bad, his ethnicity is bad. The group is bad.” Myanmar, Once a Hope for Democracy, Is Now a Study in How It Fails. UN report on Rohingya hunger is shelved at Myanmar’s request.
🇹🇭 Thailand🇹🇭
It’s all about the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej this month, of whom Nikkei Asia Review has a handy biography. The King, who passed last October, will be cremated in a ceremony next week set to shut down the country. Dignitaries from across the world will come to pay their respects to the man who had been the world’s longest reigning monarch. The Bangkok Post has had a short series from Thitinan Pongsudhirak exploring the death and what it means for Thailand’s future which I highly recommend. Thailand’s Buddhist monks order reforms ahead of royal transition. Thaksin Shinawatra’s son has been charged with money laundering.
🇲🇾 Malaysia 🇲🇾
I have really fallen behind on my Malaysia election-watching this week. But from what I can tell — it’s not a foregone conclusion yet for Najib Razak and UMNO. Good! Keep it juicy. There’s no date yet, but get ready. There’s some MH370 noise. I’ll see you next month, KL. The Kim Jong-nam assassination case continues, here’s a wrap-up from Asia Times.
🇻🇳 🇱🇦 🇹🇱 🇧🇳 Vietnam, Laos, Timor Leste and Brunei 🇻🇳 🇱🇦 🇹🇱 🇧🇳
This is a great piece of work from Vietnam Express on HIV in the country and the stigma which surrounds it. The Petrovietnam scandal has seen a lot of arrests, but what does it mean for Vietnam’s business? Flooding has subsided but everyone is on alert again. Vietnam is hosting an APEC summit shortly, so expect plenty about that later.
‘It has been 20 years since the Lao People’s Democratic Republic officially become a member of Asean, and although many Lao people don’t feel connected to the group, they generally believe that their country’s membership in it can only bring benefits.’
Honestly, this Greater Sunrise agreement between Timor Leste and Australia is such a tease. Just tell us what is in the dang thing! Last week’s threat from the opposition to hamper the passing of bills if it disagreed with the policy direction of the minority government came true pretty quick with the Fretilin government’s policy program vetoed.
We’ve got TWO whole stories about Brunei this week! Firstly, let’s take a look at how social media has made the Bruneian monarchy — and others in the region — popular again (there’s more to it than the babe-prince). That won’t be enough, says William Mellor over at NAR, who has used the Golden Jubilee to reflect on where to next for Brunei.
