Lockdowns and the Bounce

A Data Analysis of Mobility Levels & Transmission Rates during European COVID-19 Lockdowns

https://www.flickr.com/photos/somethingness/38868161585/

Summary

This analysis looks at Covid-19 lockdowns in and around Europe, their effect on virus transmission rates, and what is likely to happen as restrictions are lifted. It is a longer and more detailed post than normal, so here is a quick summary of what we will cover and the key findings:

1. An updated lockdown model is presented, which explores the relationship between the mobility changes that occur during a lockdown and the consequential impact on the transmission rate of the coronavirus
2. An analysis of 30 European lockdowns: the critical hold phase of the lockdown last for an average of 30 days and mobility levels fall by over 68% relative to their pre-lockdown level.
3. An analysis of lockdown effectiveness: on average, the hold phase of a lockdown reduces the transmission rate of the virus from 3.1 (pre-lockdown) to 0.77 (the average infected person goes on to infect 0.77 susceptible people); 77% of countries that have exited their hold phase have done so with transmission rates below the critical level of 1.
4. At the time of writing 73% of countries have exited the hold phase and mobility levels are beginning to rise as…