This Time It’s Different

Why & how Ireland’s second COVID-19 wave differs from the frst.

Photo by Brett Meliti on Unsplash

In Ireland, we are well into the second coronavirus wave, along with the rest of Europe, but it is surprising to see just how different this wave appears to be, when compared with the first wave. Despite the fact that both waves have been similar in duration, and have produced a comparable number of confirmed cases, they differ in terms of the age profile and severity of cases, because of the actions we have taken.

• Wave 1 was dominated by older and more severe cases. Wave 2 cases skew much younger, and as a result cases have been far less severe, but not only because of this, because severity has decreased across all age groups.
• Even though our new behaviours — social distancing, mask wearing, good hand hygiene — are apparently not sufficient to stall transmission, they do appear to limit disease severity, regardless of age.
• If true then wave 2 cases may not lead to the hospitalisations and fatality numbers we saw in wave 1, but only if we continue to observe these behaviours, and only if we can continue to shield the most vulnerable.
• It does not mean we can be complacent about rising cases in wave 2, just because they appear to be less severe, but it might mean that restrictions can be more…