Statistical Thinking

Never start with a hypothesis

Lies, damned lies, and STAT101

If you prefer an 🎧audio🎧 version, here’s one read for you by the author.

Setting up hypothesis testing is a ballroom dance; its steps are action-action-worlds-worlds. There’s a nice foxtrot rhythm to it. Unfortunately, most people bungle it by starting on the wrong foot. Here’s how to dance it right.

Step 1: Write down the default action

Statistics is the science of changing your mind under uncertainty, so the first order of business is to figure out what you’re going to do unless the data talk you out of it.

What do you commit to doing if you stay ignorant?

That’s why everything begins with a physical action/decision that you commit to executing if you don’t gather any (more) evidence. This is called your default action.

Getting started is about actions, not beliefs.

What I’m asking you is, “What will you actually do if you walk away and remain ignorant of the information?”

“Gather data” is not an appropriate answer. I’m prodding you to tell me which of the options you’d go for if I forced…