It’s A Rural V. Urban Battle With The Deck Stacked In Favor of Rural Voters
Today, America has a new, bitter schism — Rural, Low-Population-Density-State Voters Vs. Urban, High-Population-Density-State Voters
By David Grace (Amazon Page — David Grace Website)
Two hundred years ago America was divided into the Free States and the Slave States. A dichotomy that grew more and more acrimonious until it was finally resolved by the Civil War.
Today, America has a new, bitter schism — Low-Population-Density-State (Rural) Residents vs. High-Population-Density-State (Urban) Residents.
Population DENSITY Voting Patterns
This country is split along population density lines with the 20 states with the highest population density voting roughly two-thirds for Democrats and one-third for Republicans, and the 20 states with the lowest population-density voting roughly two-thirds for the Republicans and one-third for the Democrats.
Physical Size Voting Patterns
This schism is also reflected in the country’s physical size with states holding roughly two-thirds of the square miles in the country electing Republican senators and voting for the Republican candidate for President and states with roughly one-third of the country’s square miles electing Democrat senators and voting for the Democrat candidate for President.
Population Voting Patterns
Roughly 57% of the population resides in states Biden won and roughly 43% of the population resides in states Trump won.
The 50 Democrat Senators are from states that are home to roughly 56% of the U.S. population and the 50 Republican Senators are from states that are home to roughly 44% of the U.S. population.
Rural Veto Power Over Federal Legislation
Rural states with a total of only 24% of the U.S. population elected 42 Republican senators which gives that less than one-quarter of the country’s citizens the power to block almost all federal legislation.
If two-thirds of those people in those states support the Republican party, then 16% (24% X 67%) of mostly rural voters have elected Republican senators that are able to block almost all federal legislation.
Size & Population Data Based On The 2020 Presidential Election
I labeled each state where Biden got the most votes as a Biden State and each state where Trump got the most votes as a Trump State.
There were 25 Trump States and 25 Biden States.
The Size Of The Trump States Vs. The Size Of The Biden States
The Biden States comprised roughly 37% of the square mileage of all the states, and the Trump States comprised roughly 63% of the square mileage of all of the states.
The Trump States were VERY roughly two thirds of the country’s square mileage and the Biden states were VERY roughly one-third of the country’s square mileage.
Population Of The Trump States Vs. Population Of The Biden States
The Biden States were home to roughly 57% of the population of the United States and the Trump States were home to roughly 43% of the population of the United States.
Put differently, the total population of all the states Biden won was approximately 133% larger than the total population of the states Trump won.
Population Density Of The Trump States Vs. That Of The Biden States
The average population density of all 50 states was approximately 200 people/square mile.
- The average population density of the Biden States was approximately 305 people/sq mile.
- The average population density of the Trump States was approximately 95 people/sq mile.
The Biden States averaged roughly three times the population density of the average population density of the Trump States
- With the exception of Florida, North Carolina & Ohio, all states with a population density over 200 people/square mile voted for Biden.
- With the exception of Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, Vermont & New Mexico, all states with a population density of less than 100 people/square mile voted for Trump.
- With the exception of New Mexico, every state whose population density was less than 40 people/square mile went for Trump.
- With the exception of Florida, every state whose population density was greater than 300 people/square mile went for Biden.
20 Most Densely-Populated States Vs. 20 Least Densely-Populated States
- 13 of the 20 least densely-populated states went for Trump, 7 went for Biden — roughly 2 to 1 Trump over Biden in the 20 least densely-populated states .
- 6 of the 20 most densely-populated states went for Trump,14 went for Biden — roughly 2 to 1 Biden over Trump in the 20 most densely-populated states.
If we add together the population of the 20 most densely populated states plus the population of the 20 least densely populated states, the 20 most densely populated states have 71% of that total population and the 20 least densely populated states have about 29% of that total population.
The 29% of that total population in the 20 least densely populated states elects the same number of U.S. Senators as the 20 most densely populated states that are home to 71% of the total population of all 40 of those states.
Put differently, the 20 most densely-populated states with 245% more people than the 20 least densely-populated states get the same number of senators as the 20 least densely-populated states.
Senate Composition Of The Most & Least Densely-Populated States
- The forty senators in the 20 most densely-populated states are 28 Democrats and 12 Republicans or 70% Democrats and 30% Republicans.
As in the Presidential election, that’s VERY roughly a two to one ratio of Democrats over Republicans in the 20 most densely-populated states.
- The forty senators in the 20 least densely-populated states are 26 Republicans and 14 Democrats or 65% Republicans and 35% Democrats.
As in the Presidential election, that roughly a two to one ratio of Republicans over Democrats in the 20 least densely-populated states.
Size & Population Represented By U.S. Senators
I allocated one-half of each state’s population, square miles, and population density to each of its two U.S. Senators then I added up the total square miles, total population and total population density for all of the Democrat Senators (including Sanders and King with the Democrats) and all the Republican Senators and then calculated the average population, average population density and average square miles for each Democrat Senator and for each of the Republican Senators.
Senate Republican Square Miles Vs. Senate Democrat Square Miles
In 2021, the 25 Democratic Senators represented states with about 38% of the square miles in the United States and the 25 Republican Senators represented states with about 62% of the square miles in the United States.
Again, very roughly two-thirds of the square miles in the country were represented in the Senate by Republicans and one-third of the square miles in the country were represented in the Senate by Democrats.
This closely follows the 37% of the country’s square miles in Biden States and 63% of the country’s square miles in the Trump States.
Senate Republican Population Density Vs. Senate Democrat Population Density
- In 2021, the Democrat senators represented states with an average of 306.5 people/square mile.
- The Republican senators represented states with an average of 93.6 people/square mile.
This closely follows the average of 305 people/square mile (Urban States) in the Biden States and an average of 95 people/square mile (Rural States) in the Trump States, roughly a ratio of a three to one population density in the states electing Democrat Senators versus the population density in states electing Republican Senators.
VERY roughly, the states with Democrat Senators had an average of a three times higher population density than the states with Republican Senators.
Senate Republican States’ Population Vs. Senate Democrat States’ Population
In 2021 the total population in states represented by the 25 Democrat senators was about 124% greater than the total population in states represented by the 25 Republican senators.
- About 55.5% of the total U.S. population was represented by the 25 Democrat Senators and 44.5% of the total U.S. population was represented by the 25 Republican Senators.
This closely follows the approximately the 57% of the U.S. population that resided in the Biden States and the 43% of the population that lived in the Trump States.
Biden won 57% of the electoral votes and Trump won approximately 43% of the electoral votes.
Are you seeing the pattern here:
- Republicans control about two-thirds of the country by square miles
- Republicans control about 44% of the country by population
- Democrats control about one-third of the country by square miles
- Democrats control about 56% of the country by population
- Democrats and Republicans each control 50% of the U.S. Senate
The Filibuster Effect
The Power Of The Least DENSELY Populated States
41 Senators can block any legislation. If we count the Republican senators starting from the least densely populated states we get to 42 Republican senators in South Carolina, which has a population density of 162 people/square mile (national average is 200) and is the 32nd state of all 50 states when listed in increasing population density.
The total population of all the 32 states electing those 42 Republican senators is about 31% of the total U.S. population.
Assuming that those Republican senators were elected by a two-thirds vote (almost certainly way too high) that means that no more than 21% of the U.S. population elects enough Republican Senators to block almost all Federal legislation.
The Power Of The Least Populated States
If you list the states in ascending order of population and then highlight only those states with Republican senators you get to 42 Republican senators with Tennessee, the 36th state on that list.
If you add up the total population of all of the states that elected those 42 Republican senators they total about 24% of the total population of the United States.
If you say that each of those 42 Republican senators were elected with 67% of the vote (they were elected with a lot lower margin than that) you find that 16% of the population (24% X 67%) of the United States elected enough Republican senators to block almost every piece of Federal legislation.
BTW, these 36 states have an average population of about 2.2 million each compared to an average U.S. state population of 6.6 million each.
Think about that for a second — 16% (or likely substantially less) of the country’s voters from mostly rural states have elected enough Republican senators to block almost all federal legislation.
The United States Was Never Intended To Be A True Democracy
Because Senators are chosen on a per-state basis instead of on a population basis, the composition of the U.S. Senate bears no inherent relationship to the number of people that each Senator represents.
The two Senators from Wyoming represent less than 600,000 people. The two Senators from California represent almost 40 Million people.
Mostly rural voters comprising less than 16% of the country’s population have elected Republican senators with the power to block almost all Federal legislation.
It’s ironic that the people who claim that the candidate who received seven million fewer votes and less than 47% of the total vote should be considered as having been elected as the President of a country that most people wrongly think is supposed to be governed by majority rule.
Those same mostly rural people comprising less than 16% of the country’s population and who claim that they don’t have the political power they deserve, have elected Republican senators with the power to block almost all Federal legislation.
You would think that the members of the party that represents 55.5% of the population and yet has only 50% of the Senate’s votes would be the ones complaining that they have been denied the political power to which their numbers entitle them, but they are not.
More Examples OF Anti-Democratic Power In The U.S.
There are about 22 million people in Florida and almost 40 million people in California for a total of about 62 million people. Together Florida and California have four U.S. Senators.
Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Delaware, Vermont, Rhode Island and Montana have a total combined population of about 6,732,000 which is about 11% of the population of Florida and California, yet those eight states have 16 senators.
So, while California and Florida have 9 times more people than those eight states, the 62 million citizens of California and Florida have four times fewer senators than the 6.7 million residents of Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Delaware, Vermont, Rhode Island and Montana do.
Rural Bias In State Senates
A similar anti-democratic system operates in states that have a state senate whose membership is allocated by county-by-county instead of by population.
Both the federal senate and state senates grant disproportionately greater political power to rural voters and disproportionately lesser political power to urban voters.
On top of that, there is the disproportionate political power awarded to citizens in districts gerrymandered in favor of the party in power and taken away from citizens in districts gerrymandered against the party out of power.
Now you begin to realize
- How far away from a democracy the United States is, and
- How strongly the system is biased in favor of rural voters and against urban voters
And yet, it’s the rural, Republican voters who are complaining that the last election denied them the political power they think they deserve.
— David Grace (Amazon Page — David Grace Website)
