You Say That Biden Could Have Avoided Both A Recession & Inflation. Exactly How?
Government is a human institution that deals with the possible, not the perfect. And with human beings, perfect is not possible.
David Grace (Amazon Page — David Grace Website)
People Who Complain About Something But Have No Solution
I’ve gotten some comments about “the Biden economy” that have made me consider how and why people complain and the validity of those complaints.
Let me cut to the heart of the matter right here:
In the real world you learn to ignore the objections of people who complain about someone else’s performance but who are unable to suggest how they would have done a better job.
A Comment Complaining That If Biden Had Done “Something” More There Would Have Been Less Inflation
In a comment to one of my columns a reader complained about “the very expensive Biden economy” in this way:
“I saw very little leadership from Biden that effectively addressed current challenges during his administration that would have found the US with less inflation”; “I am moving to the EU as I see the US as dysfunctional and badly run, and I see no quality leadership that can make a difference.”
First, almost all of the post-covid inflation was caused by market factors that were beyond the control of any governmental action.
The President Does Not Have The Powers Of A King
The problem with these “the President could have done something more to reduce inflation” sorts of criticisms is that the complainers seem to live in a simple-minded, comic-book world where the President has the powers of a king, where s/he can roll back prices, order companies to instantly make more of this, build more of that, charge less for all of it, and enact legislation with the stroke of a pen.
Our system is one where power is distributed between three branches of government with the intention that each will be a check and a balance on the others.
That system can be dysfunctional if it has been distorted to promote the election of people who hold extreme philosophical beliefs, members of fundamentalist political religions who are determined to hold the government, and the country, hostage as leverage to get the Congress to enact laws that conform to the gospel of their particular political religion.
That is exactly what I think gerrymandering, party primaries and unlimited campaign spending have done, but you counter that sort of a malfunctioning system by changing the process so that it no longer promotes the election of ever more philosophically extreme candidates.
You don’t fix things by deciding that the entire government is worthless and skipping the country for some other imagined utopia where you think that some other government will work perfectly in accordance with your wishes. What country would that be? Italy? France? Great Britain?
Tell Us How, In Biden’s Place, You Would Have Done Better
To those people who complain that there was a lack of action from Biden that would have reduced inflation I pose this thought experiment:
It’s February 1, 2021. Joe Biden was inaugurated only 11 days ago.
Let’s suppose that your spouse is a brilliant scientist who is also the CEO of a cutting-edge high-tech company that has developed a mind-transfer device.
While attending a fund-raiser cocktail party at your mansion in Silicon Valley your spouse uses this mind-transfer device to install your consciousness into Joe Biden’s brain.
OK, you have now effectively become Joe Biden.
America On February 1, 2020
Here is the world you are faced with.
Massive Covid Infections & Deaths
Over the year 2021 covid will kill over 38,000 Americans each month and hospitalize hundreds of thousands more each month. There are over 1.7 million covid infections just in the month of February 2021 alone. In the month of January 2022 there will be over 5,400,000 U.S. covid infections.
Entire Industries Shutting Down
Entire industries — restaurants, airlines, professional sports, entertainment, etc. — are shutting down or going out of business entirely. Tens of millions of people are losing their jobs.
A Looming Risk Of Foreclosures
Without jobs people won’t be able to pay rent and without rent to fund mortgage payments landlords will face foreclosure. Without jobs, home owners won’t be able to pay their mortgages and residential foreclosures will skyrocket.
You can’t let the country again go through another huge wave of home foreclosures.
A Looming Risk Of A Depression
You know that this loss of jobs will have a massive feedback effect on our consumer economy. The more people who have no income, the less money is spent. The less people spend, the more businesses can’t sell their products. The more products that companies can’t sell, the more workers will be laid off. The more workers who lose their jobs, the less money will be spent. An accelerating feedback effect.
You need some way to short-circuit that feedback effect, fast, before the country careens into a massive depression.
A Looming Risk Of Massive Consumer Debt & Bankruptcies
Once the unemployed consumers begin living almost exclusively on credit cards at 20% to 24% interest, compounded monthly, more of them will be in financial holes from which they will never escape. Then there will be hundreds of billions of dollars in personal bankruptcies. Some banks may collapse under the weight of that unpaid debt.
Congressional Gridlock
There are 50 Republican Senators. If the two independents and Joe Manchin vote with the Democrats then the votes are equally split and the Democrats can just barely get legislation passed with the Vice President breaking the tie.
If any independent senator or Joe Manchin refuses to support a bill, it will fail.
Because of the filibuster rule, almost no bills can pass the Senate without sixty votes in favor which means that at least ten Republicans and 100% of the Democrats and Independents will need to support any law that you think the country needs in order to deal with this crisis.
The Democrats currently control the House, but by January 2023 the GOP will take control of the House and at that point no bill can even come to a vote without the support of the Republican Speaker of the House.
Hostility Of Some Republicans To Any Legislation That Might Be Effective
Many of the Republican legislators support Donald Trump’s claim that you did not actually win the election and that you are not the real president. Many Republicans oppose everything you want to do so that when the country crashes and burns they can later blame that pain on you so that the next time around the voters will elect the Republican candidate. (The Republicans notably killed the compromise border security bill because if Biden increased border security that would weaken one of Trump’s major campaign issues.)
Supply Chain Breakdown
Covid has massively disrupted the supply chain with consequent shortages of major consumer goods causing businesses to be unable to build and ship products, thus triggering even more job losses and higher prices for the products that are available. The ports are jammed with product that can’t be delivered.
How are you going to avoid the country falling into a massive depression? How are you going to avoid depression-era unemployment? How are you going to get control of Covid so that the economy can be restarted?
The Roster Of Challenges Facing You
Given the Republicans’ ability to thwart any legislation you propose, how are you going to counter
- the massive supply chain problem?
- the grid-locked ports?
- the increase in wheat prices because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
- the auto industry chip shortage?
- the opportunistic price increases by many corporations?
- supply shortages driving up prices?
All of these issues are beyond a President’s control and several are beyond Congress’ control.
What Would You Like To Do vs. What Is It Possible To Do?
Tell us exactly what
- (1) you want to do to solve these problems, and more importantly, given the political realities in Congress, the hostility of the Republican legislators, the demands of the left wing of your own party,
- (2) will you be able to do?
You tell me what different legislation you actually could have gotten passed that would have made things materially better, what different actions you could have successfully taken if you were President that would have left the country in a materially better position in January 2024 than it actually was in on January 1, 2024?
If Only The President Had The Powers Of An Emperor
Wouldn’t it be great if we could do away with Congress entirely and just have a benevolent, kind, decent, creative, reasonable, genius-level dictator who could just say, “Do this, do that” to the entire world.
And having magical powers would be neat too. Snap your fingers and the supply chain would be healed, covid would disappear, the Russians would leave Ukraine, chip production would double and businesses would be forbidden to raise prices.
Then our magical emperor actually would be responsible for all our unfixed problems.
But things don’t work that way.
The Federal Government Is Like An Ocean Liner Run By A Committee
People who have more than a simple-minded, comic-book view of the world understand that being President is like being the captain of a huge ocean liner that is slow and difficult to turn. Officially, you’re in charge, but the seamen are all union members and half of them want an excuse to get you fired so that someone who is more pro-union can replace you.
All your orders have to be approved by a committee composed of the union, passenger representatives, and your senior officers.
So, there’s a big storm coming, but you can’t just drastically slow the ship and radically change course. You have to gain a consensus and make compromises, and the weather, waves, and currents are totally out of your control. On top of that, one of the engines has broken down. And, even if you get control of all that, it takes a long, long time to actually turn the massive ship onto a different course.
There’s Always Someone Who Thinks Things Should Have Been Done Better
But you do your best, and after you manage to bring the unresponsive ship safely into port a bunch of people jump up and complain that it took too long, that the waves were too choppy, that it’s your fault that one of the engines broke, and that if you had somehow, some way, done things differently, the cruise would have been smoother and faster.
How exactly, specifically, would any of these people who had never so much as driven a speedboat have been able to achieve a materially better result than you did?
Yes, that’s my point exactly. Unless you can demonstrate how, if you been the captain, you would have been able to do a substantially better job, your complaint is worthless.
The Fan Who Would Have Won The Game If He Were The QB
We all know some guy who never even played first-string college ball who will tell you that Joe Quarterback is a bum because he should have thrown long in the third quarter instead of handing off to the tight end who got drilled and fumbled.
Does anyone take that guy seriously?
Real Humans In The Real World Can Never Achieve Perfection
These vague, hindsight “In some way Biden should have been able to keep the economy going, avoid a depression and keep inflation lower” criticisms are worthless.
Government is a human institution that lives in the realm of the possible, not the perfect. And when dealing with human beings, perfect is not possible.
— David Grace (Amazon Page — David Grace Website)
