Global Warming Orthodoxy (2/3)
Hey Jordan,
The questions you raise are good ones. As you ask, I don’t get bogged down in them and instead put some thoughts on them as comments in your article.
I’ll admit that climate change true-believers could be wrong. I’m not sure about the “about everything” part, though. A lot of what gets people concerned today (or me, anyway) is the cracking of ice shelfs (is it shelves?) and the rising sea level. I look at rising sea level on its own, and where it encroaches on low-lying areas (lower Manhattan where I own an apt…) seems to be a problem. It doesn’t require much abstract analysis for me to see that as something happening. Now, is that the end of the world? No. We can move inland. But the question is where it stops and how “bad” it could get if the trend continues.
You raise good questions that introduce doubt into the equation. I’d reformat the lens to something akin to how I approach my stock market investing, which is basically my full-time job these days. I stay away from investments where if I’m wrong, there’s a reasonable chance of a catastrophic outcome.
If I analyzed Hertz and thought there was a 10% chance of it going to zero, I’d be an idiot to put all my money into it. (BTW, I think the likelihood is way above 10% on HTZ). I might take a small position, but those aren’t good odds given what I have to lose. So, say I agree with you — there isn’t a consensus on climate change so 100% is out the door. Say it’s 50%, 25% or even 10%. A 10% chance that earth becomes near uninhabitable inside of 5 generations sounds pretty awful to me. Considering that many of the big contributors of carbon are things which cause other health issues (smog, chemical runoffs, etc) — there are also short-term issues.
So I guess, I look at it like that. Even if there’s one bullet in the gun, playing Russian roulette with humans' only host seems risky. While I’m painting with a broad brush, I think you understand the gist of my argument. Why chance it? Societies spend their resources on their priorities.
surya
