The Trump Scorecard (2/3)
Hey Jordan —
Thanks for your post. These have been tough to do. I find myself becoming emotional (angry) discussing ‘things Trump’ these days. While this is a problem on its own, it’s also a problem because we’re friends! Off this blog, our email exchange helped to settle me into a bit more, though. You suggested a focus more on how perceptions and perspective vs trying to find common ground (requiring concessions, which don’t seem forthcoming from either side). At this point, I think that’s a better bet.
I’m focused here on the words you initially set out: “How will Trump voters evaluation his first term in the end.” To that end …
Healthcare: F. Agreed. Repeal Obamacare was simple. That Trump also claimed:
“I am going to take care of everybody. I don’t care if it costs me votes or not,” Trump said. He added: “The government’s gonna pay for it.”
and
“I am going to save Medicare and Medicaid, (Dr. Ben) Carson wants to abolish, and failing candidate Gov. John Kasich doesn’t have a clue — weak!”
Given how all this played out, even his supporters who pay attention to healthcare would be pissed. The true believers in a pure repeal likely were the strong Cruz/Paul supporters.
Immigration: B. I actually disagree with you. On immigration, I think Trump has been stellar in his base/supporters eyes. The “Islamic immigration bans” and challenges in court showed he wanted to fight for it. The H1B stuff and ICE deportations also. To me, this is a clear A+ to the base. What brings it down is the “Mexican Wall.” On one hand, I think (obviously) his supporters didn’t think that one through. It won’t be something they’re super-pissed about, but still it keeps him from his A+ or even an A.
ISIS: C. I don’t think there have been any big optic wins. The decline of ISIS was well underway before Trump took over (the 80% figure you site is from the peak in 2015, 2 years ago). Anyway, as I said, optics matter and there haven’t been anything noteworthy here. Bombing Syria/Afghanistan is the closest, but it fluttered out of the headlines quickly. Net, not that different than you. But I think it’s a push/non-factor right now.
Jobs: C. I think this is trending down, too. On the one hand there have been a handful of positive headlines. On the other hand, and far more relevant, the vast majority of the Trump voters who were economically hurting have likely seen zero positive impact. In the election, Hillary’s rhetoric was of a continuation of Obama’s term basically (w/exception of TPP). It was that things were good and getting better. Trump’s version of reality was that it was economic carnage out there. For the tens of millions that have been left behind by this economy, Trump’s vision felt way more real. He’s done nothing to address these things. What would he do optically, anyway? Actually blow up NAFTA? Start a China real trade war? Implement a huge border-adjustment tax or some kind of massive tax reform that blew companies away and stole a ton of plants from Canada and maybe even Mexico for some industries? Anyway, I think Trump’s proclamations sound a lot like those of past elites who talk of incremental progress and positive signs of optimism, while in “real America” the towns are still gutted. It’s a C, and if it continues, I think it gets to a D in a few years. This was his winning issue (other than ‘Hillary hate’), and I project his downfall among supporters.
Tax Reform: I. Fine. I’m fine with your grade, only because I don’t think Trump supporters give a shit about this. A few, a small percentage, do. That’s the normal mainstream wing of the Republican party (because this is their bread and butter issue).
Net, I think he’ll lose more people. The “Trump coalition” is this interesting amalgam of interests/anti-elites/anti-Hillary/traditionalists. I think headlines like the transgender ban, bombing North Korea (Hillary was supposed to be the crazy hawk), etc. will cause more people to grumble about why he isn’t focused on the “real stuff.”
Still-your-friend-as-long-as-we-don’t-talk-too-much-Trump,
surya
