Why the 2019 elections will be a referendum on misinformation
In February 2007, a little known American politician made a bold announcement — he would challenge the democratic party favourite — Hillary Clinton — and make a run to become the first African American President of the United States. A rank outsider who most Americans hadn’t heard of at the time ran a successful campaign and made history when he occupied the most powerful office in the world in 2009. That campaign was largely funded by small donors, was driven by a grass-route campaign manned by volunteers enthused to see a candidate who ‘got’ their generation like nobody else. He tapped into pop culture, made effective use of Twitter and Facebook and ensured that his message resonated amongst the masses. That election campaign is widely considered to be the first one swung by social media.
Since that momentous campaign, social media has shaped political upheavals around the world. The vote for Britain to leave the European Union was largely won on social media. As was the historic election of Emanuel Macron in France. In India, while Shashi Tharoor was one of the first politicians on Twitter globally, social media did not have much of an impact in 2009. In 2014, during the historic BJP wave that swept through the country, the (now) ruling party made effective use of not just Facebook and Twitter, but YouTube and Whatsapp as well. However, the impact of those platforms directly on the electorate was limited due to the fewer number of Indians who used social media. The impact it did have, though, was on the journalist community who followed the narrative set by the part on their social media platforms.
However, the landscape that brought the party to power in 2014 has changed drastically as we gear up for the 2019 elections. In 2014, IAMAI estimated that the total number of internet users in India at around 243 million. By December 2018, this number more than doubled to cross 500 million. Earlier, the penetration of the internet was quite abysmal. This is no longer the case. The big change between then and now? One word. Jio.
The launch of the Jio network in India made data usage more affordable for the masses, fast forwarding them into the information age. With access to fast and abundant internet, the 2019 elections will be won and lost on the internet. And just as India’s political parties started to master the art of communicating on social media, a crisis of global proportions has forced the platforms and India’s election commission to take corrective action.
The aftermath of ‘that’ election
When Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election in the United States, it was a moment that left most media pundits with egg on their faces. Nobody believed that it would be possible for someone widely seen to be racist, homophobic, sexist, and corrupt to win an election in that country. Yet he did. In the aftermath of his victory, came revelations of ways and means in which Facebook was gamed to target voters, spread fake news, and appeal to the base instincts of Mr Trump’s core voters. While some of the methods used can be considered excellent tradecraft, others — such as the use of Cambridge Analytica — straddle questions of ethics and propriety. Further, the use of these platforms by unofficial entities to promote one side or another raised questions of surrogate usage of these platforms.
In light of this, both Facebook and Google have mandated that advertisers wishing to use their platforms for political purposes be physically verified. This is intended to make both political parties and candidates more accountable with their funds. Further, Facebook has added a feature on all Business Pages through which users can see what posts are being promoted on their platforms. The company released this feature after observing that politicians world over were using their ad platform to target messaging pandering to specific demographics. Oftentimes, these messages were even observed to be contradictory with one another.
In late February, the Election Commission of India recommended that all ads proposed to run on internet platforms be pre-approved by them to meet with their stringent campaigning guidelines. The democratic nature of these platforms — in the sense that creating, and running ads are largely decentralised processes requiring just a device with an internet connection and a credit card — makes the implementation of these recommendations unlikely.
While both of India’s main political parties claim that the other misuses the platform to spread fake news, the fact is that these tactics are widely used across all sides. It is human nature that we have a tendency to amplify, share, and react to more sensational sounding news. When that news becomes untethered from the truth, they skew to becoming sensational. Human nature does the rest. Fake news spreads rapidly through platforms like Whatsapp, with little ability to trace them back to the source. When corrected, the corrections do not spread as wide or as fast.
This is a challenge which has the potential to question the credibility of the entire electoral process. If voters cannot rely on the information they are presented with, how are they to make the right decisions?
Politics, by nature, is a high stakes game. In India, victory means 5 years in government, access to corporate funding, control over important national resources, and the opportunity to push through an ideology. With such high rewards, it is naive to expect political operatives to remain ethical. The cost of remaining ethical is just far too much. Election tradecraft in 2019 will reward the ones who are able to push through their fake news, their ideology and make their side of the internet louder.
One can argue that the 2014 elections were not really impacted by the internet. The internet was just as swept up like any other part of the country. The 2019 elections are projected to be much much closely fought. A swing of as few as 500 or 1000 votes will be enough to change victors in a particular constituency. It is here that Facebook, Whatsapp, and Google will have the largest impact.
The only safeguard we, as citizens, have is to remain vigilant. The Facebooks and Googles of the world will try to create as many obstacles to ensure that their platforms are not misused, but our vigilance is the only thing that can save us from falling prey to misinformation campaigns. This is something even the platforms acknowledge.
