How the three-point shot is changing the NBA
The three-point shot has revolutionized the NBA. Since its introduction in the 1979–1980 season, the three-point shot has grown to become an integral part of the game. In fact, in the 1979–80 season, the league averaged 2.8 three-point attempts per game. For this past season, the league averaged 34.6 three-point attempts per game. Here is a plot of three-point attempts through the years using data from Basketball Reference:
Interesting note: Before the 1994 season, the league tried to address decreased scoring by shortening the distance of the three-point line from 23 ft 9 in (22 ft in the corners) to a uniform 22 ft around the basket. As you can see from the plot, this led to a spike in three-point attempts per game. However, the NBA reverted back to the original three-point line after the 1996 season.
The three-point line has completely changed NBA strategy. In today’s NBA, instead of shooting mid-range jump shots, teams are throwing that out the window to shoot more threes than ever. In fact, before the 2018 season, the league lowered the shot clock for offensive rebounds from 24 to 14 seconds which has led to more possessions, more three-point attempts, and higher scoring.
To display the drastic difference in shot selection, here is a shot chart made by Kirk Goldsberry which compares Michael Jordan (widely considered to be the most prolific mid-range shooter in the NBA) from 1996–1998 and James Harden from 2018–2020:
James Harden was one of the main catalysts of the three-point revolution. During his time with the Houston Rockets, Harden increasingly shot more threes and consistently got to the rim and the free throw line. In fact, then-Rockets general manager Daryl Morey is credited with this basketball philosophy which is coined as “Moreyball” which favors shooting three-pointers and layups over mid-range shots.
Along with Harden, two of the most prolific three-point shooters in this era are Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson of the Golden State Warriors who are formally known as the Splash Brothers. While Harden shot many three-pointers, he has a career three-point percentage of 36 %. In contrast, Curry and Thompson have career three-point percentages of 43 and 42 %, respectively. Along with the high volume of three-point shots, the Splash Brothers were the best at converting these shots. Their high proficiency in three-point shooting was one of the many reasons why they were on the most dominant team of the era and won multiple championships.
How the three-point revolution has affected the game
The direct effect of the three-point revolution is that teams are taking less mid-range shots. Why are they doing this?
It simply boils down to 3 > 2 and an effort to maximize the number of points per possession. As an example, if Team A exclusively shot 40 three-pointers at a rate of 30 % (12/40) and if Team B exclusively shot 40 two-pointers at a rate of 45 % (18/40), then each team would have the same number of points at 36. However, Team A has made six less shots which leads to six more rebounding opportunities. While most rebounds go to the defensive side, three-point shots can lead to longer rebounds which gives the offensive side better opportunities to pick up the rebound.
As the mid-range game has diminished, it has devalued the traditional big man who stands under the rim and defends the paint. Instead, the goal of the modern big man is to spread the floor and create space in order to stretch out the defense. This is what made Dirk Nowitzki so special. He was a trailblazer that changed the way his position was played as he could shoot and defend anywhere on the floor in a 7 foot body.
The future of the NBA
Given the continued rise of three-point attempts, I think we will be transitioning into a position-less era of basketball that will see the dominance of “unicorn” players — not necessarily players who can only shoot the three well. Players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Nikola Jokic are already thriving given their size advantage as they can defend any position and have the capability to score from anywhere on the floor. These type of players coupled with a guard who can shoot the three far away from the basket like Steph Curry or Damian Lillard will create lethal offenses that can operate with a lot of space and strain defenses.
References
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-point_field_goal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZZry6Aed3k&t=5s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePVznd_vhp8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WH_89fZMm_c
https://www.espn.in/nba/story/_/id/29035071/why-michael-jordan-scoring-prowess-touched
