The 4 most asked questions about AI and answers to them

The use of term Artificial Intelligence is rapidly growing these days — it’s widely discussed in the media, it raises numerous questions about its current usage and even more concerns about the future. As we reflect on the development of AI over the last 40 years, we see that the progress was immediate and all-embracing. That’s why we often tend to fear of apocalyptic AI-influenced future scenario. But should we be worried?

Will AI take our jobs? More importantly, will it take over the world? What is AI able to do and what is it not? And what can we expect in the future? If you’re curious about the answers to these questions, welcome aboard — this article is for you!

So, let’s start from the basics — what is Artificial Intelligence? Simply put, AI is the intelligence manifested by machines, rather than humans. Machines that imitate cognitive human functions like learning and problem-solving.

Although in one form or another, AI was with us for centuries, one of the most noteworthy discoveries was made by British computer pioneer and AI theorist Alan Turing. Even though in 1950 the term ‘Artificial Intelligence’ hasn’t existed yet, he already attempted to answer the question —

“Can a machine think?”

Looking for answers, he invented an examination (which is commonly known as the Turing Test) to determine whether a machine is capable of reasoning. The test asked the interrogator to identify whether they are talking to the machine or a human. Consequently, it was an origin of inspiration to all concerned with AI.

Decades after, Artificial Intelligence touched upon nearly all areas of life and became an inseparable part of the way things function in our society. Now AI is used everywhere — Google Maps, Uber, Commercial flights, e-mail spam filters and many more.

1. Will artificial intelligence take away jobs?

This is probably one of the most asked questions and one of the biggest fears imposed by AI. As Artificial Intelligence has entered numerous organizational processes, it was followed by an increased fear that very soon machines will replace the human workforce. Is it really going to happen? The answer is yes and no.

Why yes?

AI started being widely used in areas like retail, software development, agriculture, and many others — unsurprisingly, in numerous cases, it was shown to perform much better than a human.

As AI is very good at accomplishing repetitive and low skilled tasks, it is foreseen that soon those tasks will also include driving, telemarketing, food preparation, cleaning, etc. While most of these assignments will become automated, consequently, an immense number of jobs will go out of the market.

For example, think about self-checkouts at supermarkets: they are performing the tasks that used to be done by people, in this way reducing the cost and the number of employees necessary for the job.

According to AI guru Kai-Fu Lee, to envision which jobs will be replaced in the future, we must ask:

“How routine is a job?”

The more routine it is, the more likely it is going to be replaced by AI.

Why no?

While many are concerned with AI replacing human force, others see it as ‘another overhyped proposition’. According to the McKinsey Global Institute study, by 2030, 400–800million jobs will be displaced by AI automation but 555–890million jobs will be created.

No one has the exact number of how many jobs will be displaced and created. However, it is believed that jobs that require creativity and social skills — hairdressers, musicians, personal stylists, etc., as well as therapists, social workers, and caretakers — won’t be replaced.

Moreover, as our mundane tasks will be automated by AI, as a result, there will be more space for the development of new creative jobs that ultimately will lead to more workplaces. It is envisioned that in the future we’ll have occupations like Mind Transfer Specialist, Body part Creator or Personal Privacy Advisor.

These days we have firm arguments to believe that within the next 20 years the job market will change dramatically. That’s why it’s significant to re-educate and re-train people in new fields so that they can adapt to the different conditions and find their place within the changing system.

2. Can artificial intelligence take over the world?

In the 80s, Samuel Butler wrote a novel in which he raised the notion of human-like intelligent machines that might become self-aware and surpass the human species. Another science fiction of even earlier 19th century — Frankenstein, highlighted the danger of mechanic intelligent being and showed a dystopian view of what society could be like in the future.

Science fiction from the past decades and even centuries is more than ever alive today. Currently one of the most feared things is that AI will become self-aware and exceed humanity.

In 2014, Elon Musk revealed his concern about AI, saying that it is the ‘biggest existential threat’ and compared it to ‘summoning the demon’. In 2015 he launched OpenAI to ensure that

“Artificial Intelligence is used for the benefit of all, and to avoid enabling uses of AI or AGI that harm humanity or unduly concentrate power.”

Currently, he aims to create implants that connect the human brain with computer interfaces via artificial intelligence. So, how dangerous is AI and is there a possibility that it will take over the world?

Let’s look at the theory. AI is usually divided into two parts: Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Essentially, ANI is responsible for narrow tasks — smart speakers, self-driving cars, web search, etc. and AGI is described as ‘anything a human can do’.

While all the scientific progress in AI is always progress made in ANI, AGI still remains only the topic for science fiction and future studies. Despite that, the progress in Artificial Narrow Intelligence often makes people think that there’s also progress in Artificial General Intelligence, which is frequently perceived as an immense danger to human species. However, according to Andrew Ng, there may be hundreds or thousands of years until we get there.

Although there are areas where AI has superior attributes, humans have an advantage when addressing uncertain and debatable matters. As humans possess intuition and creativity, they perform better at decision making and big-picture thinking.

That’s why it is very unlikely that any time soon Artificial Intelligence will be able to learn, mirror, and replicate the individual human experience and character attributes — all the tools needed for superior decision making.

3. What AI can and cannot do?

While some people tend to overestimate the power of AI, others, on the contrary, are not aware of the abundance of areas where Artificial Intelligence is currently used.

So, what AI can do? A few examples:

• Prediction. Which songs/movies/products you’re likely to like & click on.
• Translation. Translating words, sentences, and texts.
• Medicine. Diagnosing ailments (for instance, skin cancer); virtual nursing assistance — monitoring patients at the hospital.
• Customer service. Answering machines, self-checkouts, etc.

What it cannot do:

• Make moral choices. According to journalist and author Malcolm Gladwell, people’s moral choices tend to be emotional instead of analytic. Artificial Intelligence, on the other hand, uses only rules.
• Invent things. Even though there are quite a few companies using AI to invent structures and new materials, but due to lack of creativity and out of the box thinking, machines are unable to create things on their own
• Write a good joke. One may say it’s subjective, but for now, AI has an understanding of linguistic complexities and not a sense of humor.

To sum up, even though AI can perform a specific task very well, it’s not capable of thinking and reasoning. They only learn and follow the rules without understanding them.

4. What artificial intelligence can do in the future?

The use of robots is growing rapidly — while in 2015 about 5.4 million robots were sold, in 2016 the number doubled. In 2018, AI expert and venture capitalist Kai-Fu Lee declared that

“AI is going to change the world more than anything in the history of mankind. More than electricity.”

Moreover, a recent survey by Accenture (2017) showed that 85% of executives from America’s biggest businesses over the next 3 years plan to invest greatly in AI technologies.

So, what should we expect in the future?

• Self-driving cars. Even though it could take a decade or more, we can await it to be applied in public transport systems, delivery, etc. Also, it’s supposed to be much safer than driving with a human driver.
• AI fighting climate change. It’s foreseen that Artificial Intelligence will play a significant role in sustainability and battling environmental issues. Company SilviaTerra is already using AI to solve forest inventory problems and help trees grow bigger and stronger by predicting the sizes, species, and health of forest trees.
• AI turning people into superhumans. AI body implants, humans as cyborgs, added sensory abilities far beyond existing ones — the list is endless.

There is an infinite amount of predictions of what AI will look like in the future. But will they all come true? In 1965 cognitive scientist Herbert Simon predicted that by 1985 machines will be able to do any work that humans can do. Another cognitive scientist Marvin Minsky had an even bolder prediction about the future of AI in 1970:

“In from 3 to 8 years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being . . . able to read Shakespeare, grease a car, play office politics, tell a joke, 578 M.H. Jarrahi and have a fight. At that point, the machine will begin to educate itself with fantastic speed. In a few months, it will be at genius level and a few months after that its powers will be incalculable.”

As someone living in 2019, I’m sure you already know that AI is nowhere near this. That’s why when fearing and panicking about machines taking over the world, we should bear in mind that people 50 years ago have these thoughts too and as we can see — it didn’t happen.

AI has already outsmarted humans in quantitative targets with measurable criteria. However, machines are unlikely to outperform us in tasks that involve subjective and qualitative elements.

We should understand that instead of destroying humanity, Artificial Intelligence, on the contrary, can support and enlarge people’s lives. Writer Kevin Kelly stated that

“This is not a race against the machines . . . This is a race with the machines.”

Visions of the partnership within humans and Artificial Intelligence imply that while machines will perform mundane tasks, humans will be able to focus more on creative work. With the foreseen human-machine interactions, it is more beneficial to see AI as a vehicle for expanding human capabilities rather than replacing them.

References

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Gladwell, M. (2005). Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking.

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New Vantage Partners. (2017). Big data executive survey 2017.

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