Life in the Balance (Source: StandUpPaddleSurf.net | photo from video: [YouTube])

The World’s Most Dangerous Systemic Risks for the Week Ending January 13, 2017

A Weekly Intelligence Briefing Integrating the Risks Presented on the Prevailing Gray Swans List




The sheer enormity of the presently still expanding MOB bubble dwarfs previous bubbles. The MOB’s collapse is inevitable but the timing and trigger event are unknown. (Source page: @jsblokland)
Bill Gross on negative interest rate bonds (NIRP).
This is the story to watch, global bond yields. Not a problem as long as this selling remains orderly…
China has been steadily selling foreign exchange reserves since mid-2014. (Source: Financial Times)
A steady and controlled devaluation of the Chinese Yuan. (Source: CFETS, Bloomberg | Source page: @WorthWray)
US Treasury yield (30 year) breaking back above 3.00% (Source page: @SoberLook)


US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford testifying before a Congressional Committee on the consequences of the US/NATO forces attempting to implement a no-fly zone over Syrian airspace. September 22, 2016
The S-400 air defense system and electronic warfare installation and expansion of the air force base in Latakia along with the S-300VM in Tartus are strategic assets of Russia and are about 50 miles apart. Given Russian foreign policy in regards to what it considers its national security, US/NATO attacks on these assets are well within the guidelines for escalation to tactical nuclear weapon use or equivalent response. The US would be forced to destroy these assets to prosecute a no-fly zone or to effectively destabilize the extant Syrian government. (Source: Google maps)

Discussions between the US and Russia on Syria at the G20 Meeting in China in 2016. (Photo credit: Alexei Druzhinin/TASS | Source page: The Sun (UK))

Russia has held large-scale civil defense drills since 2012. (Photo credit: mchs.gov.ru | Source page: Russian Times)

Turkey is placing great political pressure on nations in the EU and elsewhere to accept far more refugees which has generated a steadily growing political backlash within the EU and US. (Source: The Economist)
The euro weakness is a leading indicator of upcoming political events. Source page: @vexmark
At the grassroots level, the EU superstate structure is losing support. (Image: Fasanara Capital | Source page: ZeroHedge)

Trend of tail risk assessment by global fund managers. Although this list is not factored into the Prevailing Gray Swan List or the integration of global systemic risks found on this document, you can see a large overlap with the list. (Source page: @WorthWray)

Conclusions

“Three Dangers” | (Source: National Geographic)

How are these intelligence briefings created?

The DEEP CONNECTIONS logo is rich in symbolism: The dark blue faces (or minds) are experts that have polar-opposite opinions caused by faulty assumptions and incomplete knowledge of the state of the world. The massive hurricane — a classic gray swan event — is a known threat of high consequence but with unknown place and time for the rearing of its wrath. When the two opposing minds engage in dialectical reasoning and combine cognitive forces, the result is a deep connection, a synthesis yielding a conceptually new framework for understanding what is really going on in today’s mercurial world. Now you can see a single, large mind normal to the plane of the two constituent minds — a mind that is looking directly at you with its two eyes, and the world — now comprehensible — right under its nose.

DeepConnections

A boutique intelligence agency that integrates economic, financial, political, social, military strategic and technological advances into a weekly, cogent global-scale briefing for executive decision makers.

James Autio

Written by

Systems engineering. Network theory. Qualitative analysis. Theoretical biology. Author. Previously at Lockheed Missiles & Space Co. https://about.me/jamesautio

DeepConnections

A boutique intelligence agency that integrates economic, financial, political, social, military strategic and technological advances into a weekly, cogent global-scale briefing for executive decision makers.