Using fiction to unlock the future of war
Military fiction can be a powerful tool to help our forces prepare for future conflicts.
On Tue 24 Apr, the Defence Entrepreneurs Forum (DEF) in the UK hosted military futurist and writer August Cole to a webcast discussion at the JHub in London. The topic was August’s short story “Underbelly”, a fictional work that considers the British Army’s response to Russian aggression following a reduction of US support in Europe. In addition to discussing the story, August discussed his writing military fiction generally and other topics.
On writing. It is hard for journalists to write stories that get out in front of trends, and into grey zones. August quit his journalism career to do exactly that, starting with a manuscript about contractors in the Middle East that was never published (thus illustrating a reality of being a writer — it’s hard when you start out to get published).
August has read a lot of science fiction, but also cites Tom Clancy as a significant influence on him: like Clancy, he tries to paint a picture for readers. Fiction has to be engaging, and in many ways it’s actually tougher to write than non-fiction. Stories are not predictions — like scenario planning, they are ways of exploring a range of futures. When done well, fiction accesses a different part of the brain and allows deeply held assumptions to be surfaced.
Also like Clancy, August strives for accuracy, but stresses that authors should seek to be as accurate as realistically possible in order not to give readers an excuse to put the book down.
The enemy has probably already thought through most of the issues dealt with in military fiction; if you doubt this, then you’re probably not giving your enemy enough credit. It is also important to read widely, particularly in trying to understand other societies and their military and political systems. As an example, Chinese science fiction like the Three Body Problem series* (particularly The Dark Forest ) is a superb and wildly popular trilogy well worth the time.
Rather, military thinkers and authors should be more concerned with positively influencing their own side. Ideas take a long time to filter through bureaucracies, particularly ones that are a bit beyond the horizon. Fiction enables thinkers to reach leaders that are otherwise insulated, and expose them to things like cyber (years before it took centre stage) and war in space (which is only just beginning to). Short stories in particular allow writers to efficiently prototype ideas and get quick feedback on them. August tries to push his stories out widely via social media, and also his work on Ghost Fleet benefits from a long-standing partnership with Peter Singer, who is often on the road doing presentations.
Fiction has already been used by the military. The USMC Warfighting Laboratory uses sci fi stories, and in order to increase its impact has also added graphic novels, for instance.
“Underbelly”. “Underbelly” was designed to challenge planners’ key assumptions about how conflict with Russia would unfold, to separate the way the world really operates from the way we’d like it to be. It hinges on the US reducing its commitment to NATO, possibly in response to economic dislocation like what might be caused by automation.
Key themes in “Underbelly” are that the world is not past kinetic great power conflict, and that in the modern military “fewer people can do much more”. In this case, to preserve deniability and in response to aggressive Russian influence and cyber operations**, the UK is forced to conduct hybrid operations on the continent, with command and control replicating that of a mob organisation. Greater autonomy and use of civilian technology are both required. Support from the US comes through contractors, and the story implicitly recognises the significant expansion of capability that contractors have brought to the US intelligence community, without the constraints of “bureaucratic drag”. The story highlights (through the adventures of Lt Mills) that cyber warfare is not bloodless: a comprehensive campaign would have to include kinetic elements.
“Underbelly” forces readers to consider the pros and cons of deceiving your own citizens, an area previously explored by Clancy in Red Storm Rising. It also challenges readers to reflect on how many international laws citizens should allow to be broken on their behalf.
Of course there is a significant technological element to the story too. British forces benefit from cloaked C-17 Globemasters, exo-suits and self-charging drones.
Other topics. In addition to “Underbelly” and writing generally, August commented on other related topics:
- Shepherding domestic support. Apathy and a disconnected populace would be a huge weakness, a theme explored in the book Starship Troopers. Citizens must be convinced that a war is worth fighting, but in the future the narrative will be shaped by billions of sensors. Being able to validate all the data they produce will be critical. China has a significant advantage in data (see e.g. the trust score), but at the same time the country’s GDP data is nearly worthless — illustrating the paradoxical frailty of big data.
- Training man-machine partnering. There are many things Western militaries can do to prepare for the changing environment. A gypsy caravan could travel the world, absorbing and testing new technology and TTPs in different regions. Soldiers can spend time roleplaying the enemy to spur innovation. This could be done with small budgets and smart people.
- The role of industry. The strategic role of industry needs to be discussed and thought through. The West is extremely vulnerable to cyber attack because the military is dependent on civilian infrastructure and companies, particularly during domestic emergencies. Enemies could threaten Wal-mart, Home Depot and logistics companies, for instance. On the other hand, many companies are increasingly uncomfortable supporting the military; the Googler rebellion over Project Maven is an example. Tech companies could not be nationalised as other industries were in past conflicts. By contrast, China works hand in glove with its major companies, and the West risks being left behind if it does not overhaul its approach.
- Guidance to the defence industry. The defence industry has a difficult brief: it can no longer wait for government guidance before investing in new technology. This creates significant risk, as technology is increasingly expensive. Fiction is one way to inject ideas into companies and inspire engineers; Microsoft has commissioned science fiction writers to stimulate thinking in the company. Movies (like Edge of Tomorrow) and video games (like Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare) can also be powerful.
Next up. In May 2018, August’s newest short story — “Automated Valor” — was published in Proceedings by the US Naval Institute. The story features British forces in 2039.
* Other fiction that August recommends is Unthinkable, a graphic novel by Mark Sable.
** “You have to assume the enemy is in your system”.
