OSCAR PREDICTIONS — 2018

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DefinePrint

11 min readMar 5, 2018

Welcome to my Oscar Predictions Piece for 2018!

We both know why you’re here, so I’ll chill with the preamble and get down to the nitty gritty pretty quickly. To cover my ass a little bit here so you don’t all @ me when I inevitably err on a few of these predictions, I haven’t seen all the movies up for awards this year, but I have watched a lot of them, many recently. Turns out that MoviePass is a decent investment this time of year, and a good investment in general assuming you have a car and/or are in proximity to a theater that shows new movies (or just movies you like). The notable movies I missed are “I, Tonya,” “Blade Runner 2049,” “Molly’s Game,” and “The Florida Project”. I’ll be getting to the first three soon, and will probably pass on the “Florida Project.”

I won’t be doing all categories, I tried to narrow into just the ones I feel most people care about with movies many are likely to have watched. This is wholly arbitrary and based on my personal tastes and viewing habits. Who’s got two thumbs and dislikes closed captions, thus making foreign films much trickier to watch? THIS GUY. Same goes for documentaries, which are cool and all, but not necessarily my favorite form of film. I’ll go into a little more editorial detail on best picture, director, and the acting categories because those drive water cooler conversation just a little better than sound mixing.

With all that said: IT’S SHOWTIME!

BEST PICTURE

Prediction: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My Pick: Not that. Literally anything else, please.

OK OK OK, calm down. If I had to pick one this year, probably “Phantom Thread” or “Get Out.” My rationale on this prediction is that there are three actors nominated from this movie (Sam Rockwell, Frances McDormand, and Woody Harrelson), it’s up for best original screenplay, score, and film editing. Every best picture from the past several years has trod a different path to garner the award, be it through original writing, excellent acting, or (looking directly at “Birdman”) innovative camerawork. “Three Billboards” has an engaging story, is a well-shot movie, and the acting is very good. The three actors nominated were excellent, even if I personally didn’t like the story the film told. I wasn’t particularly impressed by the score, especially when compared to all of the other contenders in that category, but I think the way Best Picture is voted on will propel “Three Billboards” to the winners’ circle.

Oh, about that voting! There’s an excellent piece as to how that works over at fivethirtyeight, but I can try to explain it a little quicker here. Voters are asked to rank the movies nominated. First place votes are totaled. The film with the fewest first place votes is eliminated and reallocated to their 2nd place choice. This process is repeated until a film has more than 50 percent of the votes. Confused? Good, hopefully that helps you understand how “The King’s Speech” beat “The Social Network” in 2011. Basically, the more polarizing a movie is, the less of a chance it has to win this prize. This is why I don’t think the film with the most nominations (“The Shape of Water”) will win. People thought it was weird and while some are going to have it as their #1, I think more are going to have it lower on their ballot. Same for “Get Out.” I think “Get Out” will end up being this year’s actual best picture in hindsight, but I expect Jordan Peele will have another shot at this in the future (at which point we will wonder how in the hell a movie with no stakes, no resolution, and which glorified a racist cop with revenge porn beat his first film).

My ranking from best to worst this year, for the record, goes as follows:

Phantom Thread
Get Out
The Post
Dunkirk
Ladybird
Call My By Your Name
Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST DIRECTOR

Prediction: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
My Pick: Nolan, Peele, or Anderson

The voting on this one is a little more straightforward. I think Guillermo’s considered an auteur filmmaker at this point, which is cool, but let me ask you this: which director’s films have had more cultural impact and/or relevance than Christopher Nolan? It’s a short list, and to bolster the case for Nolan is that the reason Best Picture got expanded from 5 nominees to “Whoever can fit on the ballot” is because of the “Dark Knight” snub.

“Shape of Water” was a very pretty movie, so I think it’s going to clean up in a lot of the technical awards, though its main competition will be “Dunkirk,” especially for the sound categories. “Shape’s” set design is incredible, and the green/blue tinge over the entire movie was eerie. I really loved the bunker where the bulk of this movie took place. It felt like a mix between Rapture from BioShock: steam-punky, cold, dank, with hints of cold-war era retro-futurism. I think del Toro’s vision was manifested precisely and to great effect. The story was lacking in my opinion, as it was essentially “Beauty and the Beast” with Russians and… how do I put this lightly… they also show when the animal and lady bang. A Disney movie this is not.

Ultimately, this award goes to cool-looking movies, and “Shape of Water,” for all its faults, is very cool looking. For me, this should probably go to Christopher Nolan for directing hundreds of extras, playing with time and pacing, getting the best out of the starters in his movie, as well as the backups and actors nobody’s heard of, some chilling visuals and seriously the best war sound effects I’ve ever listened to in a movie. All that falls on the director as the head of production, and Nolan’s vision deserves to be rewarded more than Guillermo del Toro’s aquatic romance.

BEST ACTOR

Prediction: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
My Pick: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Gary Oldman’s nasally, almost Droopy-sounding voice he put on to play Winston Churchill was mesmerizing, and the fact that he allegedly spent 200 hours in the makeup chair putting on prosthetics to, uh, “bulk up” for the role is not quite on the level of Leo eating a bison liver, but I would imagine it is no picnic either. He stole my attention in the movie, and showed some of Churchill’s inner turmoil and anguish in the opening rounds of World War Two. There are a couple of flies in the ointment for Oldman’s candidacy, however, primarily the fact that he is an alleged domestic abuser which is not a great look generally, but specifically not this year. He also defended Mel Gibson’s anti-Semitic remarks back in 2011, but I think most people forget that since he was Sirius Black and Commissioner Gordon. It turns out that his truer character in real life may be closer to Two-Face. All of that character assassination lain bare, he really was brilliant in this movie. Prepare for an outrage cycle.

My pick is the man, the myth, the legend, Sir Daniel Day-Lewis. His portrayal of luxury dressmaker Reynolds Woodcock was everything you could ever want in a performance. His attention to detail is unbelievable and it will be a tragedy if this actually ends up being DDL’s final film. I have no idea what his real voice actually sounds like because he IS every single one of his characters. It’s stunning to watch him in anything, and in a film as intimate as “Phantom Thread,” it is downright transcendent.

BEST ACTRESS

Prediction: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
My Pick: Meryl Streep, The Post

Frances McDormand’s vengeful crusade to get some justice for her slain daughter (WTF Chief Willoughby?) is going to resonate with some women this year. The way that she interacts with everybody in the film seems exactly like how a no-nonsense mom who lost their daughter would act, save for the fact that Frances’ lines are significantly better than anyone could probably muster in the real world. There were several scenes where the viewer is cheering for her, such as when she’s firebombing a police station, or driving off into the sunset with a racist-cop-turned-ally to murder some asshole who they have no evidence of criminality for. Did I mention I don’t like this movie yet?

A movie I did like was “The Post,” this year’s movie that feels the most like Oscar bait. Two of the highest-regarded actors, one of the best directors ever, John “Motherf**king” Williams, and a political story very obviously lobbed at Trump’s “fake news” rants vis-à-vis the Nixon administration? It was great! And a huge reason it was great was because Meryl Streep executed the part of Washington Post owner Katharine Graham such that she invoked modern feminism, was believably a 1970’s person who was friends in high places, and didn’t let Tom Hanks take over the movie. That’s no small feat. The part is easy to cheer for as a left-leaner, given that the Pentagon Papers being publicized by WaPo ended up propelling them into a position prominent enough to staff journalists that ended up cracking Watergate open. Plus, like… she’s Meryl Streep. I know she has enough of these damn trophies, but a great performance deserves one more.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Prediction: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
My Pick: Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards

Splitting hairs a little here, but I don’t think it’s cool that it’s implied that officer Dixon beat black teens and ends up being transformed into a good guy (read: “very fine person”) by film’s end. That’s basically my argument. On the merits of his performance, it was solid, but I liked Woody’s performance better. He’s more likeable. I will note I haven’t watched “The Florida Project” or “All the Money in the World,” so I’m not taking Christopher Plummer or Willem Dafoe’s performances into account on this one. Moving on…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Prediction: Allison Janney , I, Tonya
My Pick: Laurie Metcalf, Ladybird or Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

We need to get Allison Janney a bigger role, asap. She’s one of the best actors of our generation and she’s stuck on TV and in supporting roles. I will ride for Allison Janney in any context, except for now because her role in “I, Tonya” isn’t utilizing her abilities as well as possible. In my opinion, Octavia Spencer does a great job of lightening up “Shape of Water’s” heavy-webbed-hand romantic plot with one-liners and seems like the only human in that whole damn movie, a trophy-worthy achievement. My tastes lie more with Laurie Metcalf in her role as Lady Bird’s mom, Mommy Bird (note: not her actual name). Laurie Metcalf plays one of the most realistic mothers I’ve seen on screen. A mother is one of the most important people in everybody’s life, and having a performance as heartfelt as Metcalf’s was about as good of a tribute to mothers everywhere as we’ve seen in a movie. Certainly better than Frances McDormand in “Three Billboards,” though that doesn’t take much.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Prediction: Get Out
My Pick: Get Out

This script is incredible, and the small touches are what worm this movie into your brain and make you want to rewatch it. I could go for “Lady Bird” here, and it’s cool to see Kumail get a nod for “The Big Sick,” but this year, this award is Jordan Peele’s to lose.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Prediction: Call Me By Your Name
My Pick: Call Me By Your Name

I haven’t seen “Molly’s Game” yet, and suspect that I’ll adore the script because I would freebase Aaron Sorkin scripts if I could. That said, “CMBYN” was very touching (so to speak) and made me want to go to Italy, not that the latter is difficult. The speech from the father at the end of the movie to his son who had just had love snatched from him made me misty and was as loving and wise advice as I’ve heard in a movie recently. So that’s my pick until I see “Molly’s Game.”

BEST FILM EDITING

Prediction: Dunkirk
My Pick: Dunkirk

I was going to try to be impartial here, but if you mess around with time in a movie and the general audience still gets it, you deserve an award. Specifically to this movie’s credit are the different story lines converging towards the end of the film, with everything looking hopeless right up until it wasn’t. Kind of odd that we got two movies centered around Operation Dynamo in one year, isn’t it?

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Prediction: Blade Runner 2049
My Pick: Dunkirk

I have not seen “Blade Runner 2049” yet either, but “Dunkirk’s” shot selection combined with the editing and sound is why this could steal Best Picture. It’s a technically sound movie, and if voters start writing “Dunkirk” on the ballots enough times in a row, they could keep writing it all the way to the top of the ballot.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Prediction: The Shape of Water
My Pick: The Shape of Water

The set was so good it allowed the absurd story to not become utterly unfathomable. The use of water throughout and green-tinged sci fi fantasy filter was especially evident in the pie shop scenes with the neon green key lime pie. This could also go to “Dunkirk” if “Shape of Water” starts losing. “Dunkirk’s” sets were also awesome but mostly for authenticity reasons, not so much for originality.

BEST SCORE

Prediction: The Shape of Water
My Pick: Phantom Thread

“Shape of Water’s” score swelled with the tide and growing love that the mute girl had for the fish (ick), but “Phantom Thread’s” more subtle instrumental performances while Alma was cooking a poison mushroom omelet (which I’d totally devour, it looked incredible) for Reynolds Woodcock perfectly complemented the cracking of eggs, soft tapping of a chef’s knife, and scraping of silverware on china. The music during the entire film is understated, yet elegant, precisely the same as the dresses Daniel Day-Lewis creates.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Prediction: Phantom Thread
My Pick: Phantom Thread

How are you not gonna give the award for best dresses to the movie about making the best dresses?

BEST MAKE-UP & HAIR

Prediction: Darkest Hour
My Pick: Darkest Hour

Oddly, there are only three films nominated for this one, and I don’t think the disfigured little boy in “Wonder” is about to beat out Gary “200 hours in a chair” Oldman, who wore the fat suit like a champ. Personally, I’d have tried to eat so much food that I looked like Sir Winston Churchill, but I suppose that’s why I’m not an actor (or dietitian).

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Prediction: Blade Runner 2049

My Pick: Kong: Skull Island

This is another example of me having not seen a movie making my pick limited to only those I’ve seen. It’s between “Kong,” “Guardians of the Galaxy 2,” and “Beauty and the Beast” for movies I’ve seen, none of which are getting as much praise for the visuals and technical work as “Blade Runner 2049.” Of those three, “Kong” seemed like the best-made movie and the visuals, while not believable, referenced Vietnam movies, and for that it gets the nod from me.

BEST SOUND MIXING

Prediction: Dunkirk

My Pick: Baby Driver

To prove I’m not a total homer for Nolan movies, here’s one that I think shouldn’t go to (also excellent) “Dunkirk.” “Baby Driver’s” entire thing in this movie is about music to drive to, looking cool while listening to an iPod, and dancing while preparing sandwiches for your deaf father figure. While “Dunkirk’s” sounds on it’s own was amazing, the way the sounds all came together in “Baby Driver” is why I think it deserves this award.

BEST SOUND EDITING