Social Movement Analysis: MAP of Change
Evolution of a Movement inspired by Bill Moyer
The following is adapted from Bill Moyer’s book (Doing Democracy) and essay. They are edited together for easier reference and relatability.
Case Study: US Anti-Nuclear Movement
Bill Moyer (1933-2002) has been an organizer, writer, trainer, and strategist with social movements for over 25 years. He was staff with MLK Jr. and the SCLC’s Poor Peoples’ Campaign, director of the AFSC’s Chicago open housing program, national nonviolence trainer, and co-founder of the Movement For a New Society and its Philadelphia Life Center. He was involved in movements against intervention in Central America, nonviolent blockades of arms shipments to Bangladesh (1971) and Vietnam (1972), support for the AIM Indians occupying a trading post in Wounded Knee (1973), and a nuclear power plant blockade at Seabrook, New Hampshire (1977). Bill was the National Project Coordinator of the Social Movement Empowerment Project until his passing.
Movement Action Plan: MAP Model
Models organizing single actions (Gandhi, King), or even whole communities (Alinsky, Ross) are more known. The MAP model organizes entire social movements from “start to finish.” MAP is based on how much the public opposes powerholder policies. We need to engage differently if we have 10% support versus 60%.
The process of making change through social movements is the struggle between the movement and powerholders of the hearts, minds, and support of the public.
Remember, too, that oppositional movements are engaging in their own movement stage progression, trigger events, and campaigns.
This is the work: Win over 80% of the public, and we create a new society.
THE EIGHT STAGES of MAP
STAGE ONE: NORMAL TIMES
STAGE TWO: PROVE INSTITUTIONAL FAILURE
STAGE THREE: RIPENING CONDITIONS
STAGE FOUR: TAKE-OFF
STAGE FIVE: PERCEIVED FAILURE
STAGE SIX: MAJORITY PUBLIC SUPPORT
STAGE SEVEN: SUCCESS
STAGE EIGHT: CONTINUING THE STRUGGLE
The Grand Strategy
1) Social movements must be consciously grounded in shared public values.
2) Demonstrations against powerholders are meant to spotlight the problem to alert, win over, and involve the public in advocating social change.
3) The power of the mainstream creates new social, political, and economic conditions, pressuring powerholders to change their policies.
Archetypal Roles
The movement always needs everyone, but different stages emphasize different roles. MAP organizes activists into four archetypes, with effective and ineffective practices in each. While insults based on the activist role are common (The citizen/reformer is naive, or the rebel is dangerous), each role supports the other when effective. One activist may be ineffective, but entirely dismissing any role hurts the movement.
Moyer does not suggest icons, but I think of the roles this way:
Citizens: MLK. Say “Yes” to greater selves and values, liberation.
Rebels: Malcolm X. Say “No” to hypocrisies, oppression.
Reformers: Nelson Mandela. Institutionalize liberation.
Change Agents: Patrisse Khan-Cullors, Alica Garza, Opal Tometi. Strategize people power.
MAP is not the Territory.
Social movements do not fit neatly into MAP’s eight stages. Movements have different demands, and each demand is in a different MAP stage. When movements achieve one demand, they focus on others.
Ex: In 1960, the civil rights movement’s restaurant sin-in campaign successfully went through all the stages. This was repeated with buses and public accommodations, and then in the 1965 voting rights movement, whose take-off began in March with the Selma demonstrations and ended in August with the Voting Rights Act.
STRATEGY
Powerholders wage their own top-down campaign:
Bureaucratic Management
1) Suppress truth of problem.
2) Promote misinformation & falsehoods. (No arms were sold to Iran.)
3) Excuse/Justify, such as with threats of terrorism or communism.
Crisis Management
1) Discredit, destabilize, and repress the movement.
2) Appear in resolution through noncommittal rhetoric and negotiations.
3) Appease with minor reforms and compromises.
4) Coopt the movement. (Taking credit for change.)
The Movement’s campaign must win over a majority, and mobilize them:
1) Show the truth of the problem, and keep it in the spotlight.
2) Counter powerholders’ misinformation and excuses.
3) Involve increasingly larger portions of the public to personalize issue.
4) Don’t compromise too much too soon.
5) Follow through on victories.
6) Serve, nurture, and empower grassroots activists, and promote participatory democracy within the movement.
THE EIGHT STAGES of MAP
STAGE ONE: NORMAL TIMES
Movement uses official channels. Demonstrations are small and rare.
Powerholders’ chief goal is to keep issue off social and political agenda.
Public is unaware of problem,. Only 10–15% oppose powerholders.
Roles: Reformer researches and documents. Change Agent recruits.
Goals
1) Research & Document the problem. Become experts.
2) Maintain & Recruit an active community, no matter how small.
Pitfalls
1) Focusing on powerholders over public.
2) Feeling powerless.
STAGE TWO: PROVE THE FAILURE OF INSTITUTIONS
Movement uses official system to prove it violates widely-held values.
Powerholders keep issue off socopolitical agenda and maintain routine.
Public still unaware of issue. 15–20% oppose status quo.
Roles: Reformer researches and documents. Change Agent recruits.
Goals
1) Thoroughly go through motions and demonstrate institutional failure.
2) Begin legal cases to establish legal and moral basis for movement.
3) Build opposition organizations, leadership, expertise/analysis.
Pitfalls
1) Focusing on powerholders over public.
2) Feeling powerless.
STAGE THREE: RIPENING CONDITIONS
Grassroots groups grow in number and size. Small non-violent actions begin. Parts of progressive community and pre-existing networks join new cause.
Powerholders still favor existing policies and control official channels.
Public unaware and support powerholders. 20–30% oppose powerholders.
Roles: Citizen garners attention. Rebel agitates.
Goals
1) Educate/win over progressive community.
2) Prepare grassroots for new movement.
3) More local non-violent actions.
Pitfalls
1) Not recognizing the ripening conditions for a new social movement.
2) Bulky orgs’ bureaucracy, legalism, and power squash the creativity, independence, and spontaneity of the new grassroots groups.
STAGE FOUR: TAKE-OFF
Trigger event* spurs nonviolent actions and national conversations.
Mainstream orgs sometimes oppose ‘rebel’ activities.
Powerholders, failing to hide issue, escalate, infiltrate, and delegitimize.
Public becomes highly aware of problem. 40–60% oppose official policies.
Roles: Citizen garners attention. Rebel agitates.
Trigger events can be deliberate or accidental acts by powerholders or movements.
Ex: Arrest of Rosa Parks for refusing to move to the back of a Montgomery bus in 1955, NATO’s 1979 announcement to deploy American Cruise and Pershing 2 nuclear weapons in Europe, the nuclear power disaster at Three Mile Island in 1979; the assassination of Archbishop Oscar Romero in El Salvador in 1980, or the Marcos government’s shooting of Ninoy Aquino as he arrived at the Manila airport in 1983.
Goals
1) Keep issue on social agenda.
2) Alert, educate and win public opinion. Legitimize movement by emphasizing and upholding widely-held values.
3) Involve and support new members in movement.
Demonstrations must:
1) be dramatic and exciting;
2) reveal the violations by powerholders, represent values;
3) give meaning to participants;
4) be repeatable in local communities across the country;
5) be dilemma demonstrations*; and
6) be nonviolent.
In dilemma demonstrations, powerholders lose regardless of their response. If they ignore the demonstrators, the policies are prevented from being carried out. If the demonstrators are harassed or arrested, it puts public sympathy on the side of the demonstrators, against the powerholders.
Ex: During restaurant sit-ins, Black demonstrators would either have to be served or, just by sitting there, prevent business as usual. If angry White crowds attacked, or police arrested them, the public got upset and sided with the demonstrators.
Pitfalls
1) High expectations. (“This is it.”) Burnout from overwork.
2) Arrogance, Self-righteousness, and Radicalism. Violence.
3) Infiltration, Suppression. Or playing into by acting out.
STAGE FIVE: PERCEIVED FAILURE
Numbers down at demonstrations; less media; long-range goals not met. Despair, burn out, drop out. ‘Negative rebel,’ ‘naive citizen,’ and other ineffective activities gain prominence.
Powerholders and media claim movement has failed.
Public experiences dissonance, questioning trust. Many agree with movement, and are also alienated by negative rebels.
Split 50/50 support of powerholders and movement.
Roles: Citizen inspires. Change Agent organizes.
Resignation & Fatigue
One of MAP’s unique contributions is the acknowledgement of perceived failure in a social movement. After a surge in national attention, there is inevitably a lull, or reversion to the mean, and organizers feel as though the opportunity for change has come and gone. Interestingly, this is related to how we understand activism as a whole.
We activists, just like people, feed on high-paced action. When we conflate all activism to just stage four, the take-off stage, we see ourselves as letting down the cause if we are not stoking fires in the streets and media. Being active in the reforms of Stage Six feels like we are abandoning the movement.This happens even when social movements are progressing reasonably well along the road normally taken. We fall into despair/burnout until the next movement “takes off,” and repeat the cycle. MAP helps us wage long-term strategies and wane us off high-paced frenzy.
Remember that powerholders pay infiltrators to promote violent/militant action. To the degree the movement itself engages in it, we are doing their work for free.
Goals
1) Recognize movement progress and success. Check ineffective tendencies.
2) Form political and personal support groups.
3) Adopt new empowerment models of organization and leadership.
4) Evolve from protestors to lifetime social change agents. Long-term analysis.
Pitfalls
1) Feeling powerless. Despair, burnout, and dropout.
2) Splintering. Political sects dominate.
3) Rebellion, machismo, and violence. Escalation to attempt effectiveness.
4) Ignoring public for powerholders.
STAGE SIX: MAJORITY PUBLIC SUPPORT
Transforms from protesting-in-crisis to long-term popular struggle to oppose official policies, push alternatives, and shift paradigms. Broadens analysis, forms coalitions. Official channels used with some success. Strategic nonviolent actions.
Powerholders begin to split: Status quo becomes more costly than change.
Some escalate: Promote bogus reforms and create crises to scare public.
The Public: 60–75% oppose official policies. However, about half still fear alternatives. Backlash, counter-movements may form.
Roles: Reformer pushes bigger reforms. Change Agent organizes.
Renew Internal Reflection: Broad Strategy
1) Identify all of the movement’s key demands and identify the stages and strategies for each.
2) Counter the powerholders’ strategies and campaigns.
3) Beyond Reforms: Push alternatives, larger demands, and a new paradigm.
Ex: 1) Stop U.S. direct invasion of Nicaragua might be in Stage Seven; Remove support for the contras in Stage Six; and a positive Contadora peace resolution for all Central America in Stage Three.
2) Reagan seemed about to invade Nicaragua in 1984, but the movement raised public opposition. Reagan switched focus to supporting the contras, but the movement made this illegal by helping pass the Boland amendment. Reagan then undertook high-risk policies of illegal and unconstitutional covert aid through Ollie North in the Iran-Contra Scandal.
3) The Movement against Cruise and Pershing 2 missiles in Europe realized they needed to remove all nuclear weapons from Europe.
Organizational Identity
Loose organizational structures promoted flexibility, creativity, participatory democracy, and independence needed for quick decisions and nonviolent actions during take-off. But the loose model eventually becomes a liability, tending toward inefficiency, long meetings, participant burnout, and an informal hierarchy where new people have difficulty becoming full participants. An empowerment model tries to serve and empower the grassroots with structures that support those functions.
Goals
1) Keep the issue in the public spotlight.
2) Deepen & Broaden to involve public at grassroots level; Larger orgs can only “cash in” on investments at the community level.
4) Renewed use of mainstream political and social institutions.
5) Adopt empowerment organizational and leadership models.
Pitfalls
1) Slipping into Stage Five.
2) National organizations disenfranchise grassroots, dominate movement.
3) Cooptation by powerholders through collusion and compromise.
STAGE SEVEN: SUCCESS
Movement counters powerholders’ bogus alternatives. Broad-based opposition demands change. Strategic nonviolent actions.
Chief engine for change switches from “movement” to more mainstream progressives.
More powerholders split. Central, intransigent powerholders become increasingly isolated, making small concessions. Central powerholders are blocked, and forced into making fatal mistakes.
Public’s demands for change are bigger than its fears of the alternatives. Majority are ready to vote, demonstrate, and even support the central powerholders in changing present policies. Ex: Wanting an end to nuclear weapons more than they fear Soviet attack and takeover.
Stage Seven puts the movement on the offensive, but involves continual organizing. Endgame does not guarantee final success. Endgame can take three forms: dramatic showdown, quiet showdown, or attrition.
Endgame:
1) Dramatic Showdown: Resembles the take off stage, in which a sudden trigger event sparks a broad, popular mobilization, and this time changes policies or leadership. Activists usually feel that they won and had played an important role in achieving success.
2) Quiet Showdown: The movement continues both trigger-response and long-term strategies. Powerholders eventually declare “victorious retreat,” changing policies and taking credit. Activists often have difficulty seeing their role in this success.
3) Attrition: Much of the movement’s efforts are carried out by mainstream institutions and reform channels. Success is quietly achieved in a long process, sometimes decades. Powerholders hold out until one of the above, or a change with minimal spotlight. Activists usually have great difficulty recognizing the success and their role.
Ex: 1) Dramatic Showdown was achieved in toppling of Marcos, following the election process, or the 1965 Voting Rights Act, five months after Selma.
2) Quiet Showdown was Reagan’s efforts to reach an agreement with Gorbachev to end Euromissiles.
3) Attrition is the winding down of nuclear energy in the United States.
Goals
1) Recognize and celebrate movement’s successes and individual roles.
2) Follow through on demands won, raise larger issues.
3) Push for more, better demands in various stages, and true paradigm shift.
4) Create ongoing empowered activists to achieve other goals.
5) Wage a successful endgame based on showdown/attrition.
Pitfalls
1) Compromising too many values and key demands.
2) Achieving minor reforms without building toward fundamental change.
3) Not recognizing success or movement’s role.
4) Apparent final victory ending the movement.
STAGE EIGHT: CONTINUING THE STRUGGLE
Movement takes on ‘reform’ role to protect and extend successes. Minimizes losses due to backlash. Circles back to other demands. Shifts paradigms.
Powerholders adapt to new policies, claim movement’s successes as their own, or renege on agreements and continue old policies in secret.
80% Support: Public adopts new consensus and status quo.
Goals
1) Celebrate, retain, and extend successes.
2) Follow-through. Ex: After the 1965 Voting Rights Act a major effort was required to assure that Blacks were actually allowed to vote.
3) Work on achieving other demands.
4) Beyond reform to structural change and paradigm shift.
5) Build on-going grassroots organizations and power bases.
Pitfalls
1) Poor follow through fails to deliver successes.
2) Not directing the movement elsewhere after successes.
Conclusion
Success is not the end of the struggle but a basis for continuing elsewhere. There is no end. There is only the tension for justice, acted out in cycles of social movements. The process of winning one set of demands creates new consciousness and empowerment, and new movements.
The very process of being fully involved in the struggle of movements contributes to political and spiritual fulfillment.
