REFRIGERANT ADDICTION
It is the second time in my career that I have had experienced a massive switch from an existing refrigerant solution to another, following changes legislation. I have to admit that this current change is even more dramatic than the previous shift from R22 to alternative solutions.
Just to put some historical context into the current situation, let’s remember the not too distant time when legislators pushed the whole refrigeration and air- conditioning markets to alternative refrigerants, based on the detrimental effects of refrigerants on the ozone layer (mainly R22 and R12). Massive sums were spent shifting existing technology to new, and market compliance was much slower than expected. Then, just a few years later, legislators and the chemicals industry returned to the markets and declared that they had made another critical oversight. They ignored all the effects of the “new” refrigerants on global warming and guess what…. We need to change refrigerants once more.
Figure 1: The historical cycle of refrigerants (Danfoss 2017)
In an attempt to present this is a real-life situation let’s imagine an average supermarket with the sales area of roughly 1.500 m2. The combined systems of refrigeration and air conditioning will probably be utilizing around 300–400 kg of refrigerants with a GWP higher than 2.400. (Global Warming Potential index that classifies the impact of refrigerants on global warming. CO2 being a natural refrigerant will have a GWP of 1)
If refrigeration systems use R404A or R507, which are the most commonly used refrigerants in these situations (GWP of roughly 4.000) they’re facing a service ban from 2020 onwards. This means in case of a refrigerant leak (installations like this statistically have a yearly leak rate of around 5–10%), the service engineers and then the owners of the store will not be able to use R404A, unless it is reclaimed and recycled, as primary production will have stopped.
Prices for new R404A have increased within 2017 from roughly 8 EUR/kg to 30 EUR/kg within six months in the Greek market. Prices for recycled R404A still unknown but could be as high as 120 EUR/kg.
Can the owner of the supermarket change the refrigerant? Sure, replacement solutions came in the market, as soon as the legislation hit the airwaves in the form of R449 or R448 for example. Prices for these alternative refrigerants? Roughly 20–25 EUR/kg. Add to that the cost of the service company that will perform the change of the refrigerant and the operational hassle of stopping these critical systems while the store is in operation. Costs for our example will most probably be around 20.000 EUR for the replacement of the refrigerant.
Impact on sales? Zero.
Is this a permanent solution? No, because replacement refrigerants like R449 do not have a sufficiently low GWP and we are not sure about the evolution of relevant legislation.
Should the supermarket owners panic? Probably, because they are asked to invest a significant amount with practically zero return on investment. In order for a decision to be considered sustainable and viable it should satisfy the criteria of environmental impact, safety and ROI. For the existing portfolio of supermarkets (i.e. stores in operation that do not justify commercial remodeling), none of the proposed solutions come close to meeting all three criteria.
The whole situation described above is quite real and depicts a serious deficit in long term planning. Since the overall effects of the extra investments from the supermarkets, will ultimately find their way into consumer price inflation, they do affect the whole of the society.
We need a responsible and clear stance from both legislators and the chemicals industry that will ensure the viability of the actions, most retailers are about to take. Otherwise we are just pumping air into a tire that is full of holes.
