Balancing Priorities: Standing by Israel without Neglecting Ukraine
A guest post by Adam Madison
In the wake of the terrorist attacks carried out by Hamas against Israel, it appears that the US will soon come to the aid of its ally. This impending dose of military aid has again pushed the issue of US assistance for Ukraine to the forefront. Republicans have long railed against aid to Ukraine under the banner of Trumpism and the ‘America First’ ideology’s general aversion to foreign involvement. Oddly, no such zeal has carried over to the latest conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Trump himself declared that the US has “no choice” but to protect Israel. Some Republicans have gone so far as to suggest that support that was intended for Ukraine should be diverted to the Israeli conflict. As is often the case in politics there seems to be no self-awareness of the odd claim that Ukraine should be left to its own devices but Israel has to be saved from an “existential” threat.
Make no mistake, the United States should support Israel. However, concluding that Israel is worth saving, but Ukraine is not, is inconsistent at best and disingenuous at worst. Such a conclusion ignores the reality that even now, aid to Ukraine is still not only critical but strategically more impactful than aid to Israel.
Why Israel and Ukraine Matter
Neither conflict poses a direct threat to the United States. It is highly unlikely that if Israel or Ukraine were to lose either of these conflicts, there would be a direct violent impact on the United States. So why support either of them? Because the United States is not just a nation, but since the end of WWII it is the leader of a world order. In an earlier DS piece, we discussed this order in detail:
Since the end of World War II, the United States has sought to advance what political analysts refer to as the Liberal World Order (LWO). The LWO is best defined as an international system of rules and institutions that emphasize democracy, global economic liberalism (free trade), and multilateralism (international cooperation) constructed by the United States.
Both conflicts pose a challenge to that order. But between the two Russia is clearly a larger threat now and in the future for several reasons. The first is Russia’s proximity to Western Europe and thus to many key US allies. Allies that provide economic benefits as well as security benefits to the United States. Russia has the ability to inflict real damage on those allies, not just militarily but economically as well. If Russia were to remain emboldened to threaten and bully neighbors and to expand its borders to new neighbors more integral to United States interests, the resulting strains are more likely to lead to more direct impacts on the United States, either through economic issues or simply through forcing partners to make a choice between a United States led world order or one led by Russia and the Chinese. The more European allies feel their own existential threat from Russia, they are likely to move away from supporting US interests. It’s imperative to mitigate the threat Russia poses to these allies.
This leads to the second reason Russia is a bigger threat. Russia is China’s most important strategic partner in China’s attempt to reshape the world order into one that is largely controlled by the norms and precedents they set. With Russia struggling, China can no longer depend on them to be a reliable partner. Russia’s failure in Ukraine has already created some existential anxiety for Putin within his own country, which hardly frees him to support China.
Hamas is an existential threat to no one. It isn’t even a legitimate existential threat to Israel. The violence and seeming randomness of their attack is not a show of strength but an indication that they had limited time to inflict as much damage and tragedy as possible before Israel shut them down. The Israeli response will be more than adequate for Hamas. Israel is quite capable of handling the situation in large part because it has been the beneficiary of US aid for decades.
In reality, the US response in Israel isn’t about Hamas at all, it’s about Iran. The presence of America’s most advanced aircraft carrier in the region is a message to Iran to sit this one out (if you ignore how much they have probably already been involved). It’s also a message to allies like the Saudis that the United States is still willing to stand up to Iran, a worthy goal to say the least. The US response and messaging are entirely appropriate. Iran, a key member of what DS refers to as the Authoritarian Bloc, has not only the stated goal of eliminating Israel but of dominating the region in general. As former US peace negotiator Dennis Ross indicated, there is at least some involvement of Iran in all of this, possibly because they objected to a US-Saudi-Israeli deal. The US response to keep such a deal alive and Iran isolated is worth it. However, Iran is not directly involved, so the ability to bring direct material damage to Iran is limited.
Cutting Off Ukraine to Spite Hamas
So why would the US withdraw from Ukraine? Trumpists would say that the United States should not be a world order, it should not be the world’s police. It should be all about ‘America First’ but if that is really the preferred strategy and the rationale for not helping Ukraine then why help Israel? How does the preservation of Israel put America first any more than the preservation of Ukraine?
Others cite the costs, but as discussed earlier Israel has been and will be a recipient of US aid for decades. The total value of money given to Israel greatly exceeds the amount provided to Ukraine. That same attitude is often held by politicians and pundits who have a general disdain for US foreign aid. Foreign aid of which Israel is frequently the largest recipient. Since 2014 Ukraine has received almost 47 billion in assistance. For that same period, the estimated total provided to Israel is between 30 and 40 billion. A number which is sure to dramatically increase now.
Still others, cite Ukrainian corruption as the main reason to end involvement. It is somewhat ironic, considering that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently facing corruption accusations of his own. It is undoubtedly true that some portion of the money the US has given Ukraine is lining pockets. Profiteering in war is as old as war itself. However, the positive impact that Ukrainian aid is having on the war effort seems also undoubtable.
Some arguments against supporting Ukraine are actually just subtly admitting that Russia is the bigger threat. Such is the case for Senator Mike Lee whose Tweet above indicates we should not go to war with Russia even if it is through a proxy, because Russia and Putin are scary. Such observations seem common, but that is illogically arguing that we should not confront the bigger threat because it is the bigger threat. Not since the USSR invaded Afghanistan has the US had such a clear opportunity to confront the bigger threat in such a defensible and relatively low-risk manner.
Some, such as Trump influencer Charlie Kirk, suggest that Israel’s conflict is winnable, and Ukraine’s is not. The suggestion that Israel can win this particular exchange is true, but suggestions that somehow Middle East peace is within reach is to ignore 70 years of history. Equally ignorant of history is the suggestion that Crimea doesn’t want to be part of Ukraine, but somehow the Gaza Strip will easily submit to an Israeli-installed government. Certainly, the United States should be wary of ‘endless’ commitments to any conflict. It should be working to bring some kind of resolution to the war in Ukraine and if military assessments, not political pundit assessments were to determine that it was ‘unwinnable’ then serious discussions about the level of support should be had. However, it is disingenuous to say that supporting a nation that has been receiving military aid for almost 70 years is temporary, and supporting a nation that has been receiving aid since 2014 is endless.
Israel should absolutely be supported. Iran and its proxy actors must be deterred. However, we cannot allow poor strategic thinking or blatant political maneuvering in the name of putting “America first” to let Russia off the hook now. Such a move would be to prove Russia right in its belief that America is not a reliable partner and that it cannot be counted on for long-term support. A lesson that they will gladly share with any nation that might be counting on American resolve. Nations like Poland, Taiwan, and the Philippines to name just a few. Foreign Affairs Magazine expertly detailed the gains that China was already able to make while the US was dedicating most of its focus to fighting the War on Terror. To lose focus on the bigger strategic threat now would be a monumental politically driven error.
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