Helen Davidson: ‘’I Cannot Live Without You”North Korea and its Nuclear Weapons

The nuclear arsenal of North Korea remains one of the world’s greatest enigmas. While the isolated nation does not permit independent observers and the collection of verifiable data, it simultaneously needs the world to know that it had obtained nuclear capabilities, and is willing to employ them, should it be forced to.

It does not seem ironic only to the North Koreans, that their rather basic nuclear capabilities deem them so threatening, while their ideological opponent, NATO, boasts thousands of state-of-the-art warheads. In this standoff, it is unlikely that either side will lie down their arms (literally) without expecting enormous concessions. In the case of North Korea, as the demand against the regime is complete denuclearisation of the peninsula, it can be said with quite some certainty that no deal is on the forecast in the near future.

So why did North Korea develop nuclear weapons in the first place? Why did a nation with a rather low development rate and (as far as we can ascertain) high rates of poverty, decide to embark on such a costly adventure, dooming itself to be isolated and threatened, with such genuine public participation?

North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is driven by several factors, including strategic considerations, regime survival, and real and perceived security concerns. North Korea’s leadership has seen the long list of nations that failed to deter Western involvement, only to see their leaders deposed and the country turned into chaos.

North Korea views nuclear weapons as a deterrent against sometimes perceived but often explicit threats from the United States and its allies, particularly South Korea and Japan. The regime believes that possessing nuclear capabilities provides a measure of protection against potential military interventions or regime change attempts. The often aggressive tone with which Western leaders choose to address this isolated nation fuels this. The regime has near absolute control over its public messaging, and therefore any fear or disgust struck into the hearts of its leaders ends up being spread to its entire populace.

This leads to the issue of regime survival. Like all dictatorships, the North Korean leadership, under the Kim dynasty, sees a heavily armed military as a crucial element for the survival of not only their ideology but often of themselves personally. By portraying itself as a nuclear-armed state, North Korea seeks to enhance its domestic legitimacy, bolster its standing on the international stage, and deter any potential external intervention.

Additionally, nuclear weapons grant North Korea international recognition and status. The regime aims to assert itself as a global player by acquiring such capabilities, strengthening its bargaining power in diplomatic negotiations, and securing concessions from the international community.

So what does North Korea seek to obtain? Does it, internally, seem to have a plan to eventually dispose of its nuclear weapons, should its demands be met with sufficient guarantees, or is it a ‘’true believer’’ in nuclear weapons?

The former seems more probable, however, the likelihood of any proper tradeoff is near non-existent in the current political climate, preoccupied with several large-scale conflicts. The US, in particular, is unlikely to ‘’waste its time’’ coming to a deal with North Korea, given the demands of the conflict in Ukraine.

North Korea has historically used its nuclear program as a bargaining chip to extract economic aid, sanctions relief, and diplomatic concessions. By leveraging its nuclear weapons development, North Korea seeks to negotiate from a position of strength and extract benefits for its economy and regime.

It is worth noting that these reasons are based on analysis and interpretations, as the North Korean government’s motivations are not always explicitly stated. The regime remains an enigma to the West, but also to itself: true beliefs and motivations of individual decision-makers are often concealed for fear of what undercutting the official narrative could mean. The international community, including South Korea and the United States, has consistently condemned North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and called for its denuclearization through diplomatic means. If these requests are to be taken seriously, North Korea’s demands for mutual denuclearisation need to stop being dismissed.

Composed by Helen Davidson for Denuclearise.com