This Is Why You Aren’t Winning In Fantasy Football
Injuries, Subs, Algorithm, IBM Watson, and Touches
According to the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, Fantasy Football is estimated to be worth more than $18.6 billion a year in the US/Canada and is played by over 59 million people, and this was back in 2017.
With traction gaining, the popular game is played primarily on the ESPN Fantasy Football app and Yahoo Fantasy Football app worldwide between September 10 and January 3.
Whether you’re playing without a buy-in or staking a few ruffled twenties, here are 5 reasons why you won’t be winning in your league.
1. Injuries
The #1 pick in the draft this year was overwhelmingly Christian McCaffrey. Unfortunately he went down injured in week 2 and has only played one game since. For a player averaging over 25 points per game, that is over 200 points potentially missed by him locked in on the bench.
Did you brush off the fact that you had to wait until the #2 overall pick, knowing that you can rely on Saquon Barkley to carry you all the way to the playoffs? Well, then you’d be disappointed because he also went down in week 2 and is likely out for the season.
Are there strategic ways to combat this? Answer: Trade if you can, and pick up the #2 running back who will get the workload until the starter returns.
2. Subs / Bye
Example: Atlanta’s offense is suppose to be pretty good right? Matty Ice tossing the rock around to Todd Gurley, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley. It’s your turn again to draft and you cannot believe Ridley is still available. How did you land all three of these productive point producers?
Last week you woke up Sunday morning excited to set your starters, preparing for yet another victory when all of a sudden you realize half your team shares the same bye, and you don’t have the bench to replace them. You’re left scrambling to find anyone on waivers who is projected to earn at least 6 points, you lose. Who knew that game would be the deciding factor come playoffs?
Avoid having 2+ players that share the same bye week.
3. Algorithms
A majority of the teams in Fantasy Football leagues strategize week to week based on only one factor, projected points. ‘Ah this guy looks good, he’s supposed to get 14 points, start.’
You should definitely pay attention to the projections. The algorithms used to estimate these points take into account history, opposing team stats, number of touches, involvement in plays, offensive / defensive schemes, and more. All the stats reduced down to one number so you can cut your research to a few clicks.
However, since you only have to check the projected points to get all this information neatly packaged up and placed on your screen with a bow, you should at least check one more thing: boom / bust.
You think you have a secret weapon, a running back nobody has picked up who is projected 10+points this week. Before you grab him, check the boom / bust statistics. Sure, there is a 10% chance he earns you over 20 points, but there is a 35% chance he earns you .2.
4. IBM Watson
These days, there are many equations that suggest to you what you should and shouldn’t do, and Fantasy Football is no exception.
In the ESPN Fantasy Football app you may find yourself executing trades that IBM Watson claims is maxed out on fairness and value. IBM Watson’s Trade Assistant utilizes Discovery’s advanced Natural Language Processing capabilities to ‘extract, translate and review’ expert’s views from sources including ESPN.com, blogs, articles, and even podcasts.
What it doesn’t do well is take into account what your needs are at the moment, and it can’t weigh it’s decisions against who is on your opponents roster.
For example, if Watson is suggesting you trade away Baker Mayfield, but your opponent has Jarvis Landry, the strategy behind keeping Mayfield is — every touchdown Jarvis Landry catches is offset by Mayfield also locking in those points. It is insights like those that need to be considered when scanning Watson’s Trade Assistant.
5. Touches (Att)
A major statistic you should be watching is projected touches or attempts (Att).
This directly effects the amount of potential yards the player will earn on gameday, and adds to the chance of a touchdown, which should be the main goal in starting any given player. If you don’t pay attention to attempts, then you’ll be disappointed come gameday when your starter watches from the sideline.
