The future of your privacy: universal right, luxury, commodity or utility?

Four scenarios on the future of privacy regulation and their implications

Common sense would suggest that in the wake of Facebook’s many scandals, users would be leaving in droves — and yet the network is more popular than ever. Meanwhile, the number of smart speakers worldwide is set to reach 225 million by 2020, despite multiple incidents of speakers recording private conversations and sending them to acquaintances without the user’s knowledge. If that sounds eerie, it’s just the beginning. Within our lifetimes, we should expect all sorts of technology to become fully embedded into our lives, “watching over” our every decision, conversation and thought.

Last year, the European Union rolled out the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) — the largest attempt yet at protecting user data. In the US, federal regulation of that reach has yet to pass, but it hasn’t stopped at least 12 states passing their own privacy laws. The 2018 California Consumer Privacy Protection is the strongest of all, guaranteeing users the right to know what data is being collected, and opting out of the sale of their data. However, this kind of regulation is the exception rather than the rule. And if you look at the opposite end of the scale, the Chinese government is actually collecting personal data from citizens to build a social credit system to incentivize good behavior.

So with governments adopting different positions across the globe, and most users ambivalent about sharing data as long as there’s a clear value exchange, what does the future of privacy look like? Inspired by trends, drivers, and news, here are four possible scenarios based on two uncertainties: Who will regulate privacy — governments or tech companies themselves? And how much will the public care about the topic?

Scenario 1: Privacy as a luxury

In this scenario, customers express a clear desire for more privacy, but there is little government intervention. As a result, tech companies take advantage of the free market to charge as much as users are willing to pay for the security guarantee. Transparency and privacy become a competitive feature — delivered at a premium.

Early trends pointing this way include Google’s omission of the camera from the Home Hub, and Facebook’s “Private by Design” branding campaign for its new Portal device. If this scenario holds true, we can expect more devices with robust privacy safeguards: camera covers, the option to turn off and disconnect listening and face recognition functions, local data storage only, and the ability to seamlessly see and determine what’s saved and what’s not.

Only the most affluent will have complete control over their privacy, paying monthly fees to use private email accounts, social networks, and other services — while the rest use “free” options that exploit their data.

Scenario 2: Privacy as a commodity

In this scenario we find a society in which neither citizens nor governments care about privacy regulation, giving the tech industry total autonomy over data collection, its exchange, and trade. In this free market, people are powerless over what information is being transferred, while tech companies make huge profits by selling data to brands.

All the devices around us, regardless of whether we own them or not, are collecting and sharing information about us. Algorithms anticipate everything from when we’ll be hungry to what our child’s favorite toy will be next year. Smart speakers in our self-driving cars listen to our conversations so that the digital billboards on the road can be targeted just for us, and the driving route is not the fastest one, but the one that passes by the highest bidding retail store.

In this scenario, we might get the illusion of choice. But our options for what to eat, what to read, what to wear, and where to go will be limited to those presented by companies that pay to be present in our lives.

Scenario 3: Privacy as a utility

Here we find a government committed to protecting citizens’ privacy rights, but a society that has grown indifferent. Privacy becomes something governments regulate and monitor, but citizens take it for granted and don’t spend a lot of time looking into it, much like power and water regulations.

Devices come with privacy scorecards, similar to energy efficiency rankings on appliances. These scorecards visualize all the ways the device collects and analyzes data and what it does with it. Is video being recorded? Does it do facial recognition? These numbers might influence a purchase along with beautiful design and sale price, but won’t be the key selling point for everyone, and will soon be forgotten once the device is installed. Citizens receive a monthly email statement of their data that’s being collected and used, but it will most likely stay unopened or deleted right away, with most people deciding to opt out of such boring information.

Scenario 4: Privacy as a right

In this scenario, governments heavily regulate privacy laws, driven in part by a public that demands protection. The right to own and control one’s data and online persona becomes a fundamental, universal right. Early signals pointing towards this are Europe’s GDPR and California’s Consumer Privacy Protection laws.

Users have complete visibility and control over all their data. By law, tech giants issue monthly data statements, similar to bank statements, listing all the information they collected from us and how it was used. In addition, users have the power to adjust privacy settings to their level of comfort. All of this free of charge. In full control of what we share and don’t share, some people even profit by renting their data to tech companies.

So what will the future of privacy really look like?

None of these scenarios are absolute, nor are they attempts to predict what will happen. The future of privacy will likely be a combination of these scenarios, but will also be influenced by wild cards, things we can’t even imagine today. We should also expect privacy regulation and attitudes around it to be different across different parts of the world.

One thing we can be certain of: our future will be defined by the decisions and actions we make today. Exploring different outcomes helps us think about what kind of future we want — and the steps we need to take to get there.