Critical Writing: The speed of Automation
In December of 2013 Jeff Bezos Amazon CEO announced plans for the development of an idea that would surprise many. Amazon Prime Air, an automated drone delivery service to fly your amazon packages to your front door. No humans involved. The package was attached to the underside of Amazons ‘’Octocopters’’ and would automatically fly to the delivery location. While Bezos’ initial predictions of rolling out this service within four to five years hasn’t fully been realised this service is available now for select areas in the UK and US as well as some other countries. Such an idea will inevitably have its detractors with concerns about the projects security, safety and practicality all being raised. Some also felt slightly disturbed by the idea of this now giant faceless corporation having a few less friendly faces. Removing the human element can make even the most mundane of things cold and clinical. While still in the developmental stage this new wave of automated delivery is a plan amazon shows no sign in slowing down in, and with Amazon being one of the world’s biggest companies if these systems where to become mainstream it would likely change the shipping industry forever. But how might that effect those who rely on this work for their lively hoods? And what other less obvious implications might this bring?
Automation is hardly a new problem facing the work place since the industrial revolution it has continued to force our working lives through constant evolution at a pace we can barely keep up with. While there have always been concerns, and well-founded ones, at that on the effect of automation it is clear that many, many jobs or on the line. US President Donald Trump built a large part of his election campaign around the idea of manufacturing jobs being lost to other countries in particular China, however this isn’t entirely true. The US lost 5.6 million manufacturing Jobs between 2000 and 2010 but 85% of these jobs were lost to technological change and automation, according to a study by the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University. A trend seen since the first knitting machines entered service. Queen Elizabeth 1 refused to patent one such machine saying “Consider thou what the invention could do to my poor subjects. It would assuredly bring them to ruin by depriving them of employment, thus making them beggars.” These fears however well founded they might be aren’t entirely accurate as despite the constant evolution of workplace automation people are still able to find employment because while it does destroy jobs it does not eliminate work.
It is hard to deny the economic benefits of our continued automation of the work place. While far from faultless compare the overall quality of life of counties such as the UK and US to those of developing countries although many factors beyond the automation of jobs effect these areas its influence is undeniable. For all its benefits though in recent years the effects of automation have begun to change before it was the blue collar work that was hit the hardest. Now however automation is coming for jobs in a new way as and there are very few positions not at risk.
AI is changing the game for industry automation while still a way off yet many companies are investing in this technology. Computers are smarter than they have ever been before we carry more processing power in our pockets than what we used to put astronauts on the moon. As the computers that control the machines get smarter there is less and less need for the factory worker and it is likely that huge shifts are coming for the work place we know. Most manual labour jobs of an unpredictable (eg. tree surgeon) or predictable (eg. Assembly line worker) nature will see a drastic decline between now and 2030 while jobs such as health and hospitality management positions and creative jobs will boom under the same time frame for non-developing countries at least (information taken from ‘’The McKinsey Global Institute’s Jobs lost, Jobs gained: Workforce Transitions in a time of automation December 2017’’). This technology won’t eliminate jobs just change them But the chaos about to be caused by the rise of AI won’t go un-noticed, much like the first factory machines entering the world what we do and how we work will be changed drastically an irreversibly. 60% of all professions globally have the potential to become 30% automated, and of all activates people are paid to do (not examining particular professions) 50% could be theoretically be automated using existing technology. Looking at these numbers it’s pretty clear to see that the next big shift is here and with previous shifts causing stagnation in wages for decades and major policy reforms for the work place it is likely we face a similar scenario now. We have overcome such adversity before, however this time round it’s happening much faster than we have ever experienced. Know this is it so hard to believe the fear behind Bezos and his drones. 6 years ago the idea seemed like science fiction now it’s available, viable and growing in scope. Recently a video began circulating online that kicked up quite a stir. While it was later revealed to be fake the video depicted an Amazon Prime Airborne fulfilment Center an actual patent filed by amazon in 2014. In essence a giant blimp from which Prime air drones would deploy, restock and recharge. This image fascinated some and terrified others with it being touted as borderline dystopian by vocal twitter users. Many simply haven’t realised what lies on the horizon for the technological change in our work place and while there are those who are working to ensure our economies and work spaces are ready for what is coming the next 10 years could see changes even they don’t predict. One thing is for sure though your future amazon orders might not be delivered by a human hand. The way we design for our future is something we must take great care in. Our work can have impacts that completely alter our existing world. Bezos and his drones are a marvel, a technological push that will revolutionise our lives, but much like William Lee the inventor the knitting machine that Elizabeth 1 the first refused to patent, what consequences to our work go unseen to us in our push for greatness? Who suffers from our success? Does the cost to society out way the gain? And what potential damage can we do if we push too hard to fast?
