Evaluating the Red Wings at the All-Star Break
The Detroit Red Wings entered the NHL’s All-Star break with a record of 20–21–6 and are currently fifth in the Atlantic division with 46 points. This is about where many experts had the Red Wings heading into the 2021–2022 season. The franchise is still very much in a rebuilding phase but what has been exciting about this season is the pieces acquired by General Manager Steve Yzerman are starting to make significant contributions at the NHL level and fans can start to believe in the promise of better hockey to come in Detroit.
Among the acquired pieces that are making contributions are the Red Wings three legitimate Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year) candidates with Defenseman Moritz Seider, Forward Lucas Raymond, and Goalie Alex Nedeljkovic. All three were named to NHL All-Rookie team at the break and are expected to be key parts in the rebuild going forward.
Team Statistical Leaders at the Break
After formally being named the Captain of the Red Wings entering last season center Dylan Larkin has continued to emerge as a leader of the team and has the stats to back it up. At the break Larkin leads the Red Wings with 23 goals and 44 points. His previous career high in goals was in the 2018–2019 season with 32 and he is well on his way to breaking his career mark in the current year.
Rookie Moritz Seider is the team leader in assists with 25 at the break. In his first season he has impressed analysts with his puck handling out of the defensive zone and how he sets forwards up in transition through the neutral zone. As shown below, on almost a nightly basis he has been making plays such as this one which has many optimistic about his Calder Trophy chances this year and Norris Trophy (best defenseman) chances in subsequent years.
Alex Nedeljkovic has emerged as the number one goalie this year and leads the team with 13 wins and a 2.90 goals against average. His .911 save percentage leads all rookies that have played at least 20 games this season. Acquired at the beginning of this year, he has quickly become one of Steve Yzerman’s most impressive non draft acquisitions. He is no stranger to professional hockey in the Detroit area either, having previously played for the now defunct Plymouth Whalers of the OHL.
Expectations for the Second Half
With 46 points the Red Wings are ninth in the Eastern Conference which is only one spot out of the playoffs at the end of the year but they will have a difficult path to the postseason. The Red Wings are nine points behind the Boston Bruins for the eighth spot in the conference and have played four more games then the Bruins. In a strange year, the eight playoff teams in the Eastern Conference seem to already be set with the current playoff teams all having over a 90% chance of getting in to the postseason.
The Red Wings have also benefited from an easier schedule in the first half of the year which has been a partial reason for their success. They are projected to have the second toughest schedule the remainder of the season which will make it difficult to make much upward movement in the standings.
The second half of the season will be more about player development and making sure that the team continues to see more contributions from their younger players. Continuing to see Lucas Raymond contribute on the top line or Moritz Seider leading the team in time-on-ice a game will give fans more confidence in the direction of the rebuild.
Storylines in the Second Half
In addition to the overall direction of the rebuild there are a few storylines to watch in the second half of the year. Winger Jakub Vrana has been out the entire season with a shoulder injury and is still expected to make a return this year. The 25 year old was acquired last year at the trade deadline when the Red Wings sent Anthony Mantha to the Washington Capitals in exchange for Vrana, Richard Panik, a 2021 first round, and a 2022 second round pick. Vrana had 11 points (8 goals, 3 assists) in the 11 games he played with the Red Wings last season and is expected to be a top six forward in the line up when he makes his return. How well he recovers from his injury this season will be something to watch the remainder of the year.
While many of the younger players have shown positive progression, Right Wing Filip Zadina has have left more to be desired from the front office. The 22 year old from Czech Republic was the sixth overall pick of the Red Wings in the 2018 NHL draft. Through 45 games played this season he has five goals and nine assists. Compare those stats to Ottawa Senators forward Brady Tkachuk (12 goals, 18 assists in 37 games played) who was drafted fourth overall in the 2018 draft and it becomes clear that Zadina is behind on where the organization expected him to be when he was drafted. Zadina is still early in his career to call him a bust but fans want to see him contribute more in the second half.
Overall fans should enjoy the rest of the season. This team has plenty of entertaining young stars and the core of a future contender is starting to take shape in Detroit. The Red Wings rebuild is at a point where playoff appearances aren’t the expectation just yet but the team is fun to watch, taking some of the pressure off of the team this year. The remaining part of this year should be about building towards a playoff run in the 2022–23 season.
