IOTA: Tangle growth update October 2017

This is the second article in series analysing the latest IOTA snapshot from 23th October. For previous Snapshot analysis, feel free to check my previous article. The four snapshots used in this analysis are from:

  • 9th June
  • 8th August (2 months later)
  • 22 September (1,5 months later)
  • 23 October (1 months later)

Given that no so much time has passed since the last snapshot in September, I didn’t expect any dramatic change. Here are the latest stats:

The tangle keeps on growing

In my previous article I was speculating that, given the growth rate at that time, we could reach half a million addresses with positive balance before 2018. According to the latest snapshot, we have +26% more positive addresses in one month reaching 65,618 positive addresses. If this rate stay, we should have well over 100,000 positive addresses before Christmas.

I see several reasons for this “slower” development. First, the network was down for a few days because of a bug. Second, the speculator’s focus was on the bitcoin fork during the past few weeks. Hence, I suspect that there were less new IOTA holders due to a general altcoin slowdown. The bullish market during August contributed to the increased network growth. October took its toll on all altcoins.

Worth noting that IOTA’s price is about -20% down in one month due to the speculator’s focus being somewhere else (you know why). Given the network growth, I think the current price is still a steal. 😉

Lots of micro-addresses — sign of adoption?

As we have more positive addresses, it is logical that the average address balance fell: from 53.569 in September to just 42.359 in October.

What I find really interesting is that there are much more micro-addresses with balance under 1 mIOTA. I have checked again the percentage of addresses that have more than “x IOTAs” and here is what came out:

You see, previously, we had the relative amount of addresses over 1 gIOTAs falling. Now ALL addresses above 1M are falling. This does not mean that the absolute amount of positive addresses over 1M is falling (quite the contrary - more on that in the next section). It means that the amount of micro-addresses grew faster than any other address size.

One explanation (from personal experience) could be that several teams are working on real-world project implementations with IOTA and are using seeds with tiny balances for testing purposes. This is the case at the wallet project I am currently working on (more on that in a later article), for example. I suppose it is very similar for the other projects like Navigatox, Satoshipay, Oyster, Snapask, etc.

I think, this is a positive sign. Given that IOTA will be the backbone of IoT, it is only logical that probably most of the addresses will have tiny balances when big adaptations come.

Better distribution

Now, if we look at absolute address counts for positive addresses over X IOTAs we notice an undeniable trend:

The amount of addresses grew in every category up to whale addresses 
(+ 100 gIOTAs). The whale addresses continue losing the ground. The IOTAs get more distributed across the network. Here is another graph of percentage of IOTAs owned by top addresses:

Please be advised that, unlike the graph from the previous month, I have excluded the top foundation addresses since they corrupt the results and do not reflect the real usage and distribution.

I can think of two reasons of this trend. Probably it is a combination of these two:

  1. More smaller IOTA holders (1mIOTA — 100 gIOTA range) are joining the network.
  2. “Splitting” of address values due to the network usage.

All of these reasons are good signs. Remember the pie-chart of address distributions from my previous article? Here they are again:

Here they are again:

And here is the new one for October:

As said earlier, the addresses under 1 mIOTA grew most at the expense of addresses over 10 gIOTAs. Everything in between stayed much the same. That’s a wonderful distribution.

Top-addresses unchanged

In the last article I tracked the balances of the top 10 addresses. Here is the updated version:

Not much changed here. Even at top 20 address-level. I guess, the biggest whales are still hodling strong.

Overall impression

This is just an analysis of the last 4 snapshots with some subjective speculation about the trends. Some data might not be accurate. Some conclusions cannot be made with 100% certainty, due to the fact that one seed/owner can have multiple addresses, for instance. Hence, this information should not be considered as an investment advice.

Said that, I feel very positive about the development. Tiny addresses signal work being done on IOTA-based projects. Broad address growth and distribution show strong support for the technology and/or steady usage of the network. Biggest fishes holding.

How about you?

Thanks for reading. Here’s a carrot: 🥕

Roman Semko (https://twitter.com/deviota_com)
http://www.carriota.com
Donations welcome:
VCDUPBSYPUOCDHPJVPRABSDHOTEW9FIXUGJKQIPQMPL9MYNEGHZAXKNO9TWTNQLSKVZYMDZOFQCAKIYTXAYAOSWWQA

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