The War of the Pretenders

Donetsk separatists send in troops to Luhansk amidst proxy dispute in eastern Ukraine

@DFRLab
@DFRLab
Nov 21, 2017 · 4 min read

Unidentified armed men in green uniforms took control of key administrative buildings, patrolled the center of Luhansk, and have reportedly replaced a local leader. This is not 2014, but November 2017, where a power struggle is underway between Luhansk’s separatist leader Igor Plotnitsky, police chief Igor Kornet, and apparently the forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), which are currently present in Luhansk. Videos from the “state-run” news network in Luhansk, GTRK LNR, published videos of these men patrolling the streets of the city center.

The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine also observed a series of military vehicles and masked, armed men in central Luhansk.

(Source: Twitter/@OSCE_SMM)

The exact reason for the sudden “invasion” of little green men in Luhansk is not clear, but the event is likely related to a power struggle between Plotnitsky and Kornet after the former fired the police chief. This conflict is not just between the two strongmen of Luhansk, but also serves as a proxy war between Russian and Donetsk authorities. The Ukrainian news outlet Depo.ua called the Luhansk conflict “Surkov versus the FSB,” putting the support of the Russian security services (FSB) with the ousted police chief Kornet, and the support of the Kremlin’s point person in the Donbas, Vladislav Surkov, with Plotnitsky.

Donetsk Invades Luhansk

(Source: Twitter/@666_mancer)

Eventually, Twitter user @5urpher found the exact BTR 771 in an old photograph with DNR Spetsnaz forces.

Subsequently, reports surfaced that over a dozen tanks from the Somalia Battalion — a Donetsk/Makiivka-based tank unit ran by Mikhail “Givi” Tolstykh before his death — entered Luhansk.

(Source: Twitter/@loogunda)

While there were no direct photographs or videos of these tanks, the rumor seems to have credibility when corroborated with a video that surfaced in a Luhansk Vkontakte (VK) group showing dozens of military vehicles, including Kamaz trucks, entering Luhansk. The vehicles were reportedly from Donetsk.

According to the original post on the “Other Luhansk” VK group, the video was filmed from the “1st subdistrict” of Luhansk, facing the “new overpass.” We can easily geolocate this video to the area, thus showing the video was filmed from an apartment in the district of Luhansk facing west and overlooking the Parkhomenka market.

Overview of the geolocation. Left: video of convoy arriving in Luhansk (Source: YouTube/
Drugoi Lugansk); Right: Google Earth.
Top: Building in the Parkhomenka market in Luhansk, from Yandex Panorama; Bottom: video of convoy arriving in Luhansk (Source: YouTube/Drugoi Lugansk).
Top: video of convoy arriving in Luhansk (Source: YouTube/Drugoi Lugansk); Bottom: Corresponding building and billboard from Yandex Panorama

Conclusion

Most likely, the Donetsk troops arriving in Luhansk are meant to stabilize the situation in Luhansk. That said, with the precarious grasp that separatist leaders in Luhansk and Donetsk have on both power and their own lives — best seen in the suspicious death of former Luhansk “Prime Minister” Valery Bolotov earlier this year — it is hard to predict if stability or bloodshed will come in the wake of a massive convoy of tanks and troops.

In the meantime, @DFRLab will continue monitoring the unfolding events in this war of pretenders in eastern Ukraine.


Follow the latest Minsk II violations via the @DFRLab’s #MinskMonitor.

Also, follow @DFRLab on Twitter for more in-depth analysis from our #DigitalSherlocks.

DFRLab

@AtlanticCouncil’s Digital Forensic Research Lab. Catalyzing a global network of digital forensic researchers, following conflicts in real time.

@DFRLab

Written by

@DFRLab

@AtlanticCouncil's Digital Forensic Research Lab. Catalyzing a global network of digital forensic researchers, following conflicts in real time.

DFRLab

DFRLab

@AtlanticCouncil’s Digital Forensic Research Lab. Catalyzing a global network of digital forensic researchers, following conflicts in real time.

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