Battleground Karnataka: The State BJP is a Family that no Longer Eats Together
This is the second part of my series analysing the upcoming Karnataka Assembly elections. Read the first part here.
Thou art a king; so are we elevated through the self-confidence
in our own wisdom acquired through serving our preceptor. Thou art celebrated through thy possessions; our fame is spread abroad in all quarters by learned men… If thou art cold towards us, we too are perfectly indifferent towards thee.
The import of those immortal lines by the sage, scholar, king, and grammarian Bhartruhari might well reflect the prevalent sentiment among large sections of the Karnataka unit of the BJP. In the last fifteen or so years, it appears that this trajectory has traversed a straight road that began at idealism and is currently parked at the station of cynicism. And so an Amit Shah blasting state BJP leaders is entirely unsurprising.
Indeed, the BJP’s situation in the state nearly mirrors its situation as the year 2013 was about to turn a corner. One can recall how until Narendra Modi was anointed as the Prime Ministerial candidate, popular talk in media and political circles held that there were at least six Prime Minister candidates within the party. It was meant in jest of course but it only underscored the extent of cynicism and dejection that the BJP had undergone. In a line, it also reflected a demoralised BJP that appeared content to sit in permanent opposition — or at best, being a feeble-voiced coalition partner.
Although B S Yeddyurappa has been declared the BJP’s Chief Ministerial candidate and chief of the state unit, little has changed in the aforementioned situation. On the contrary, in the past year after he took charge as the party’s state chief, mini-eruptions of internal bickering, undercutting, and a barely-simmering revolt have frequently surfaced. But before dwelling on this, let’s reexamine the question I had concluded the previous part with: what explains the shocking inaction on the BJP’s part in the preceding four years in which the Congress Government handed scandal after scandal on a platter to it? Was it complicity, cowardice or both?
Historical Sense
A sense of history might help uncover some of these cobwebs.
Indeed, one needs to learn from the Karnataka BJP the fine art of coming crashing down from being the ruling party to garnering a tally that didn’t even qualify for being the principal Opposition party. Not to mention the formidable feat of having three Chief Ministers in just five years.
Which brings us to the said historical sense. The cause the party is currently in doldrums in Karnataka harks back to the time when it partnered with the family political enterprise known as the Janata Dal (Secular) in 2006. Whatever its excuses back then, it was plainly an opportunistic alliance — it’s hard to believe that seasoned political leaders in the BJP actually trusted the cloak-and-dagger Deve Gowda’s 20–20 “promise.” I suppose the lure of power dulls the most seasoned of ’em. Needless, the doomed alliance ended in doom.
But the ensuing sympathy for Yeddyurappa ended in the BJP’s electoral triumph in 2008 but the party should’ve gotten a foretaste of what was in store when on the very day he took oath as Chief Minister, the supporters of Jagadish Shettar indulged in violence and arson in Hubli. Yeddyurappa’s short-lived tenure witnessed the full extent of infighting, skulduggeries, and ignominy that even veteran BJP leaders could stoop to.
It appears that for a leader who built up the BJP in Karnataka during the best years of his life, all the fire and fight within Yeddyurappa was extinguished after he became Chief Minister. Only a tragedy of Shakespearean proportions can answer the spectacle of a recently-deposed Chief Minister of the ruling party landing in prison.
It’s things like these that have landed the Karnataka BJP in the woeful state that it currently finds itself in. In a line, ever since it captured power and onwards from there, the BJP in Karnataka stopped being a family that eats together, and has become a house divided against itself. Needless, its opponents don’t have much work to do to win.
The Current Scenario
Yet, even in the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah era, the Karnataka BJP appears to hang on to the old script. In the aftermath of Yeddyurappa taking over as the state party chief began the circus show of K.S. Eshwarappa — who had once claimed to be a “loyal disciple” of Yeddyurappa — forming his own faction called Rayanna Brigade. It’s anybody’s guess that he was propped up and backed by other powerful anti-Yeddyurappa forces. This show dragged on for months until Amit Shah pulled the curtains. Needless, the Congress was delighted.
The sum and substance of all of this, to put it bluntly is this: the ubiquitous “old guard” in the BJP in Karnataka looks jaded, unenthused, complacent, and perhaps comfortably settled. The take-no-prisoners aggression that Amit Shah displays for every single seat — even a Rajya Sabha seat; notice how he went all out in his attempt to defeat Ahmed Patel — is thoroughly missing in the Karnataka BJP unit but is thoroughly visible in Siddaramaiah’s strategy. Indeed, the fact that Amit Shah came to Bangalore armed with his own, independent surveys of the situation here is the ugliest mirror revealing the extent of the state unit’s dysfunction.
The BJP’s national chief, Amit Shah decided to give his party in Karnataka a reality check. Armed with three survey reports, he asked the BJP leaders in Karnataka how many seats would they win if the state went to polls today. Several leaders including the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate, B S Yeddyurappa said that they would win anything between 125 and 150 seats. Shah however shot back and said in reality the BJP would win just 80 seats if elections were held today.
Siddaramaiah apart, the JD(S) is systematically but quietly consolidating and strengthening its hold on its traditional Vokkaliga and Muslim vote banks. Indeed, the Vokkaliga vote bank has historically, and continues to remain the BJP’s weakest wicket in the state, especially in the Old Mysore region. If the JD(S) manages to secure even 50 seats, it’s the BJP that has cause to worry.
Meanwhile, a new, dark horse named Upendra, the popular film actor has decided to enter the political fray. While we’re not sure whether the Congress, the JD(S), or even the BJP has propped him up, his mass popularity is undeniable. He hasn’t still clearly articulated his brand of politics — perhaps he could turn out a la Arvind Kejriwal or even worse, a Chiranjeevi. But if his style of politics is anything like the impractical, outlandish and bizarre idea he proposed in his blockbuster film, Super, he’s set himself up for failure already.
Equally, the latest challenge confronting the BJP is the manner in which Siddaramaiah is tearing into the BJP’s massive Lingayat vote base in North Karnataka. This vote base which had been systematically cultivated by the selfsame Yeddyurappa seems fast slipping away right under his nose. Perhaps the BJP is adopting a wait-and-watch approach but it appears to be no match for Siddaramaiah’s brazen divisiveness.
And as the campaign heats up, expect the Congress to spare no tactic to go for the kill. As a well-respected senior analyst told me, the upcoming Karnataka elections are a psephologist’s nightmare.
And the BJP isn’t even in the game at present. How and how quickly it’ll resolve its leadership crisis and a largely cynical and demoralised party workers will be the actual starting point of its campaign.
The next and concluding part of this series will examine some of these facets.
