Is Trump Playing Trade War Checkers, While Xi Plays Chess?
Trade talks starting to look like a familiar trap.
For the last decade, I’ve helped agriculture and commodity groups sell their products abroad. China is a critical market for many U.S. products from apples to soybeans. This work made me a China watcher. I’ve followed the official meetings and noted the successes and failures of various negotiating tactics. I’ve learned that China is always playing chess when most opponents are playing checkers. To take on China you must do your homework because China is always prepared and will not act until it can extract the best deal for China.
When President Trump entered the world stage, he was playing hardball with his tariffs. At first, China responded in kind with tariffs of its own on sensitive U.S. products. Then, China seemed to soften a bit. Notably in December, before the U.S.-Chinese meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. Trump demanded a position statement from China on a number of trade issues and China acquiesced. Many thought that China would reject this requirement for fear that the list would be leaked to the press and the government would lose face at home. Ultimately, China shared the list and the meeting happened. This gamble paid off for China. The trade truce was signed at this meeting, delaying any new tariffs for 90 days.
