Booming Economy, Looming Crisis: Unpacking the Human Toll of Ongoing Conflict in Ethiopia
As 2020 draws to a close, the world’s third fastest-growing economy grapples with both war and a humanitarian crisis.
by: Babatunde P. Odubekun & Geoffrey von Zastrow
Promise of Peace
In 2019 the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded its peace prize to Abiy Ahmed Ali, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, explaining that Abiy had “initiated important reforms that give many citizens hope for a better life and a brighter future . . . granting amnesty to thousands of political prisoners, discontinuing media censorship, legalizing outlawed opposition groups, dismissing military and civilian leaders who were suspected of corruption, and significantly increasing the influence of women in Ethiopian political and community life.” The Committee also noted that Abiy had “ pledged to strengthen democracy by holding free and fair elections.”
The Opening Salvo
One year later, on November 4th, 2020, while the world was fixated on the American presidential elections, 8,162 miles away from the DC “Beltway” a military offensive launched in northern Ethiopia quickly unraveled the post-revolution tranquility that has defined Ethiopia for decades. Prime Minister Abiy had declared war on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a mainstay in the Ethiopia political arena which governed the country as part of a coalition for close to 30 years before losing power in 2018, partially due to anti-government protests which propelled Abiy’s rise to the head of government. The TPLF continues to be an influential political force within Ethiopia and controls the Northern region of Tigray, near the borders with Eritrea and Sudan.
Elections: Proceed or Delay?
Ostensibly, the dispute between the federal government and the TPLF came to a head when the TPLF held a regional election in Tigray in defiance of the federal government — of which Abiy is head — which sought to delay elections until after the COVID-19 crisis had abated. TPLF swept every seat in that contest. The federal government declared the results of the “shanty election” of no legal consequence.
Tigray state is governed by the TPLF, which has a regional army staffed with upwards of 250,000 soldiers. Much of the Ethiopian federal government army stockpile of weapons have been stored in Tigray, a holdover from the two-decade-long standoff with Eritrea, making the Tigray regional army and militia uniquely well equipped.
4 November Northern Command Attacks
In the early hours of November 4, TPLF soldiers attacked Ethiopian military bases across Tigray and severed communications. By November 8, TPLF soldiers had taken control of the federal army’s northern headquarters, capturing tanks, anti-aircraft guns, and missile systems. In the ensuing days, the Ethiopian Air Force bombed military targets across Tigray, including the capital city, Mekelle, and drone strikes in Alamata. Refugees in Sudan have reported to various outlets that militias and Amhara special forces targeted them directly.
“People are coming out of Ethiopia really scared, afraid, with stories saying they have been fleeing heavy fighting and there’s no sign of the fighting stopping,” - Babar Baloch, spokesman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
Cross Border Conflict
The TPLF believes that Eritrea has mobilized to attack Tigray in coordination with the Ethiopian federal government; a charge that Eritrea denies. On November 14, TPLF reported that it had launched rockets at Amhara (Eritrea’s capital) including two airports: Bahir Dar and Gondar. As the TPLF refused to surrender, federal troops continued to push north through Tigray, with reports emerging that the number of people killed in the heavy fighting climbed quickly into the thousands.
Contrary to the Ethiopian government’s statement on the 28th of November that fighting had come to an end, the TPLF said they are still fighting from the mountains.
Humanitarian Concerns
Rumors of widespread violence targeting civilians have been reported. On November 12, Amnesty International confirmed that on November 9, 2020, large numbers and likely hundreds of people who appear to be day laborers were hacked and stabbed to death in a small town located in west Tigray. Although the perpetrators have not yet been identified, eyewitnesses interviewed by Amnesty International claim that the atrocities seem to be in retaliation by the TPLF following a defeat by the national military.
“Concerns are growing by the hour,” for the 96,000 Eritrean refugees in Tigray living in camps, the UN has not been permitted to access sense the fighting began over a month ago. “The camps will have now run out of food supplies — making hunger and malnutrition a real danger, a warning we have been issuing since the conflict began nearly a month ago. We are also alarmed at unconfirmed reports of attacks, abductions and forced recruitment at the refugee camps.” - Babar Baloch, spokesman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
UNHCR has reported more than 40,000 Ethiopians have fled the country, crossing the border into Sudan, and is preparing for more than 200,000 refugees as a result of the conflict. The UN agency has voiced additional concerns about its ability to provide an adequate response to refugees in entering Sudan due to a lack of resources. Furthermore, UNHCR is concerned about its ability to move refugees away from the border and conflict, having only moved 8,000 refugees as of November 24th.
Of the refugees that have crossed the border into Sudan, nearly 31% are children.
The fighting has only further compounded humanitarian aid agencies’ concerns of a worsening humanitarian problem in the region, where roughly 600,000 people were dependent on food aid before the conflict began.
Keep in mind this is all happening during the first pandemic in a century, where testing and hospitals are all but nonexistent, and the virus has the potential to spread quickly with harmful effects, especially among already vulnerable populations displaced by the armed conflict.
Final Thoughts
It is difficult to forecast just how long the conflict in Tigray will last; however, in such a large and influential country now facing multiple insurgencies, the status quo certainly can not last forever.
in Konso lead to the displacement of 94,000 people (Addis Standard, 23 November 2020). The government holds little control in West Wollega, where it is battling members of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Communal clashes in Gujji have killed hundreds, and armed ethnic militias continue to attack civilians in Metekel despite the presence of federal troops in the area (Africa News, 16 November 2020).” — Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED): Ethiopia: TPLF Overview
Prolonged conflict in Ethiopia has the potential to result in the destabilization of the Horn of Africa, home to around 170 million people (Djibouti 958,920, Eritrea 3,213,972, Ethiopia 109,224,559, and Somalia 15,008,154) in addition to neighboring Sudan, home to 41,801,533 people. The Horn covers an area of roughly 770,000 square miles, wherein 70 million people face unrelenting, extreme food shortages. Each of these countries has faced famine at least once a decade for the past 30 years.
Fragility of the surrounding countries:
Somalia:
- a country that has been torn apart by conflict since 1991, is set to hold its first presidential elections in the coming months. The U.S. has announced the withdrawal of nearly 700 special forces troops who are stationed in Somalia to help bring an end to operations by Al-Shabaab, a militant group that holds a firm grip on large swaths of Somalia.
- Further reading — NYT: In Somalia, U.S. Troop Withdrawal Is Seen as Badly Timed
Eritrea:
- gained its independence after seceding from Ethiopia in 1993. Despite the newfound peace brokered with Ethiopia, early reports suggest that Eritrea’s conflict remains in Ethiopia (against TPLF) if not with Ethiopia (against the federal government.)
Djibouti:
- though often considered one of the world’s most fragile states, is also Ethiopia’s only access to the sea. The country has played host to multilateral talks between the Ethiopian government and African Union (AU) heads of state and other negotiators. Furthermore, Djibouti is the only country in the world to have both US and Chinese military bases.
Sudan:
- Not only has Sudan been harboring thousands of displaced Ethiopians, but also, the Sudanese government claims that a border patrol was ambushed by the Ethiopian army and militants earlier this week, resulting in multiple officers’ deaths. In April 2019, the Sudanese military deposed longtime President Omar al-Bashir. Sudan is currently governed by a Sovereignty Council which appointed Abdalla Hamdouk Prime Minister, a role he is expected to hold until national elections in 2022.
- Further reading — Al Jazeera: Sudan says officers ambushed by Ethiopian ‘forces’ during patrol
Egypt:
- While not a part of the Horn of Africa or the immediate neighboring region, Egypt is worth noting because of an ongoing dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Renaissance Dam (Africa’s largest dam) in northwest Ethiopia. Egypt has long stated the dam is a national security threat due to its downstream impact on the Nile, which empties at the Nile Delta, in Egypt, into the Mediterranean Sea. Earlier this year, outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump commented, flatly, “They (Egypt) will end up blowing up the dam.”
- Further reading — AP: Ethiopia blasts Trump remark that Egypt will ‘blow up’ dam
Written by:
- Babatunde P. Odubekun
Twitter: @TundeOdubekun
Email: bodubekun@gmail.com - Geoffrey von Zastrow
Twitter: @von_Zastrow
Email: geoffvz@gmail.com
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