A Look at Winter Storm Izzy: Local Forecasters Were Correct In Predicting the Storm
I wasn’t convinced after the last storm forecast was incorrect
Winter Storm Izzy, otherwise known to the entire East Coast this winter over Sunday night and Monday as the “Snowpocalypse”. I mean, kidding, I guess I’m half kidding, but this storm was expected to pack a punch. Initial reports for the winter storm warning where I’m at in Erie, Pennsylvania had us on the higher end of the forecast.
We were expected to get up to a foot or more of snow overnight and up to an additional six inches today, Monday, January 17th, Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. 80 million people in the Northeast region were under a winter storm warning. Hundreds of thousands were expected to and did lose power Sunday night. This storm came in with a purpose and certainly didn’t disappoint. The snow totals were expected to be 1 to 2 inches at times overnight, per hour.
I initially laughed off this forecast as I saw that right before the storm was coming in that the trajectory had moved a bit more to the east. I wasn’t denying that it was coming. It was as clear as day Sunday night that the snow was coming.
For the previous few days, temperatures had been very frigid and the snowstorm coming from the Southeast and tracking northward would actually bring warmer air and moisture. From all of the informal weather education I’ve received over the years,
I know that warm air plus frigid Canadian air and moisture was a recipe for a major storm. I guess I just wasn’t expecting the snowpocalypse predictions to be accurate. I thought that we would most likely be spared from the higher totals.
My friend, Ashley, and I guessed that we would get about 6 inches of snow according to what I saw on the radar approaching us. I mean, I am a weather aficionado. I used to follow one of the prominent local weatherman’s Facebook Live feed every night to talk to other weather enthusiasts.
The people who are on this feed at 1 am for an hour most nights are called Tom Atkins’ Nightcappers and we have a good old time talking about the weather, sharing puppy photos, and just having a generally good time. He doesn’t have to do this feed.
I think that at this point in his career Tom enjoys interacting with his fans in this way. He’s been a local staple in this city for over 30 years. There are plenty of people who enjoy getting the weather from him and his team, myself included.
I guess I should’ve just trusted the forecast from them this time. Despite the flak that weather forecasters get, they’re still accurate within a margin of error nearly 4 out of 5 times. Why did I think that this major storm warning and the impending storm were going in the 20% this time?
I looked outside my truck door just a few minutes ago. The snow is still very active and the snow is definitely deep and nearly impossible to travel in. I’m sure there are some local closures.
I know that from what I heard this morning, EMTA (yes, that bus system I’ve previously criticized) closed their service to only operating medical rides for disabled and elderly citizens as of this morning, there were school closures (that’s a pretty big deal in a city that rarely closes for anything), and service interruptions to many local businesses.
Many people, including my friend, Ashley, mentioned previously had to call into work today because of the current local conditions.
My point is I guess that even though I know a little about the weather, I should just continue to trust the local weather team and the National Weather Service to know that when they say that there’s going to be a major amount of precipitation, they’re just not blowing smoke, or dare I say, snow out of their butts.
Anyway, I’m cold, it’s windy, I’m surrounded by feet of snow, but luckily I have enough supplies and food in the truck to not need to go anywhere for at least a day at this point. This is an active weather system.
I implore all of the people in the area today to continue to prepare and stay safe if you need to travel today and to listen to forecasters even if you think you know better or that your bias tells you that they’re wrong more often than not, which is factually not true.
Erie is also a tough place to forecast because of its proximity to a major Great Lake and the effects of the lake effect weather.
Anyway, I’ll finally conclude by saying that I’m not a weather forecaster, no matter how much into the weather I say I am. I’m going to continue leaving the forecasting up to my local weather team. Tom, you guys called this one, and I’ll continue being just a weather fan.
