Commuter Content in a Virtual World
As we settle in to this new [virtual] normal, media consumption habits have evolved into unprecedented patterns. Based on prior consumer behavior during disruptive events, Nielsen predicts that staying home will drive up TV viewing by 60+ percent. Video streaming in particular has grown drastically relative to the gains in total TV usage during this same period. Since people have been sheltered indoors, time spent on streaming platforms was up 34 percent over the first two weeks of March. And as others have reported at length, this sudden media boom, which seems to be benefitting some media companies immensely, is more complicated than it appears. Even Netflix hasn’t been immune to shutting down productions — a move which will inevitably impact us all many months from now.
But one consumption pattern in particular faces a not-so-complicated and immediate threat: that of media intended for commuters. Most at risk? Podcasters, music streamers, and new premium short form streaming entrant Quibi (the latter marching ahead with its launch despite cries to stall for a post-quarantine era).
Podcasters
Podcasts, which have experienced a boom in recent years, have already seen a major drop in downloads and listening. Data from Podtrac shows that downloads in the space have dropped about 10 percent and that unique listeners have dropped roughly 20 percent since the start of March. With 750,000 active podcasts in 2019, 32% of Americans listening to podcasts at least once a month, and $497 million spent on podcast advertising in 2018, these losses are far from inconsequential.
A drop in podcast engagement despite gains in other types of media consumption can be explained by how and when podcasts are typically consumed. A Voxnest study from July 2020 concluded that across the top 5 podcast genres in the US, the 7–8am and 9–10pm hours were consistently the top performers. “The data patterns spell it out clearly… regardless of location, podcasts are a part of consumers’ morning commutes and nightly routines.”
Music Streamers
As with podcasts, music streaming has dropped since the start of the crisis. From March 13–19, plays were down 7.6%. Executives say this drop was expected given the drops seen on a normal weekly basis over the weekend, when listening typically slows. But these executives are banking on a potential surge in listening when people begin to favor music instead of the new flavor-of-the-week Netflix show in the background while working.
Bizarrely, radio listening may not be in the same boat. Perhaps due to the nature of radio as a resource for news and updates, it seems people are leaning on radio even more broadly during this time. On March 25th, the BBC said streaming of its radio stations had risen 18% since the week before, while data from two US analytics companies suggested use of music-streaming apps such as Spotify had dipped by about 8% during the same time frame.
Given its reliance on commuter hour listening and the drop in music streaming, Spotify’s stock has been downgraded. Conversely, analysts are more favorably viewing Amazon Music, who stands to gain more from at home listening through Alexa devices.
Quibi
With every episode less than 10 minutes in length, Quibi was made for the daily commuter. As TechCrunch astutely notes, “the app is designed for viewing while you’re on-the-go, whether that’s walking around, waiting in line or sitting in the backseat of a car — all moments that are happening considerably less often as huge swaths of the population are advised to shelter in place and maintain social distance.” Quibi launched on April 6th with the hope that these moments would nonetheless exist in a quarantine era.
Not surprisingly, on the day of its launch, folks at home only downloaded the app 300,000 times, compared to a Disney+ launch to the tune of 4M downloads (the latter likely would have been even higher in a quarantine setting). And while downloads jumped to a total of 1.7M downloads at the close of the first week, Quibi has already dropped out of the iOS app store’s top 50 apps just 9 days after its launch, sitting at a ranking of 71.
Because Quibi has not yet existed in a world with commuters, the world will never know what a launch could have looked like in a world better fit for Quibi consumption. And it may very well suffer in the long term due to such a poorly hatched launch strategy.
Now what?
Only time will tell what the future looks like for content made for the consumers of yesterday’s world. Will the behavior shift more heavily into the evening bedtime hours when we already see similar consumption patterns? Will disenchanted, frustrated consumers launch new attempts to replicate their old lives and commuter time “at home”? Or will these services fall to the wayside completely and face displacement from alternatives better suited to the living room couch?
One thing is for certain: nobody will be commuting to work any time soon. At best, we can expect exciting innovations from these hardest hit players. At worst, desperate attempts to stay relevant.
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