Self-driving cars and the future of transportation industry
September 23rd 1962 was the date that The Jetsons, a popular American animated sitcom, was first aired.[1] This classic animated sitcom illustrated the Jetsons, a family from the far future, living a life in the year 2062. At the time this program was first aired, many of the things that appeared on this show, seemed to be incredibly futuristic and in some cases way too futuristic to think of them as a potential reality. Almost 60 years after the first episode was aired, we have seen how some of the technological developments that appeared on the show, have finally become a reality. Examples of this are smartwatches, flat-screen TVs, Video chats, and pill cams.
An invention that appeared in that show, and yet hasn’t become true, was flying cars. Although this is something that it’s still not a feature in cars, there is another that wasn’t even considered by The Jetsons creators and that with every day that passes it seems to be a reality that is getting closer and closer. This characteristic is self-driving cars and I would like to share my thoughts on why I think it will dominate the future of transportation.
Automation and Safety
According to the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), there are 6 levels of automation, which ranges from level 0 to level 5[2]. Level 0 to 2 are the levels of automation associated with features that control acceleration and brake. Level 3 (Conditional Automation) is what we are currently seeing with cars launched by, for example, Tesla. These cars require to have a person that drives the vehicle. Level 5 (Full Automation) is the level on which the car can drive itself under any circumstances and does not require the intervention of a person.
In order to understand how fully automated vehicles could help save lives and prevent injuries, it may help reviewing the Five Eras of Safety[3] and the incorporation of features that these eras brought. Between the years 1950 and 2000 several features of automation were incorporated to cars. These features were primarily Safety/Convenience features such as Cruise Control, Seat belts and Antilock brakes. From 2000 to 2010, some advanced safety features such as Electronic Stability Control (ESC), Blind Spot Detection and Forward Collision Warning were incorporated. From 2010 to 2016, Advanced Driver Assistance features such as Rearview Video Systems, Automatic Emergency Braking, and Lane Centering Assist were incorporated. From 2016 to 2025 (estimated) Partially Automated Safety features such as Lane keeping assist, Adaptive cruise control, and Self-park will be incorporated. Finally, it is expected that after 2025 Fully Automated Safety features such as highway autopilot will be incorporated.
So, the incorporation of fully automated seem to be the next step in the path of providing safer transportation experiences. There are many points of views of how these technology would bring value to transportation. According to get.tech there are several pros and cons of self-driving cars[4]. The pros are:
1. Self-driving cars will serve a multitude of purposes: Not just cars but also other purposes.
2. Less distraction for drivers: Would not require driver’s attention.
3. Follow traffic rules: More than what humans actually do.
4. Better safety: Most accidents are currently attributed to human error.
5. Better road journey: Longer journeys will be more pleasant.
6. Better traffic management: Cars can be coordinated to reduce traffic.
7. A convenient way of commuting: Less fatigue when driving.
8. Better technology means more advantages: More aware and vigilant than a human driver.
9. Enhanced convenience: No driving license or driving test required anymore.
10. Insurance benefits: Better safety standards would reduce insurance premiums.
11. Fuel to cost advantage: Probably will be powered by other than fuel.
12. Environmental benefits: Fewer carbon emissions.
On the opposite side there are several cons mentioned such as:
1. The higher cost of acquisition: Driverless technology is expensive.
2. Loss of jobs: Driver jobs will be replaced with driverless cars.
3. Too much dependency on tech:Minor malfunction, may cause a colossal failure and result in a major accident.
4. Commuting issues: Slow in terms of maneuverability.
5. Legal and ethical issues: What happens when a driverless car crashes?
6. Privacy issues: Driverless technology depends on self-learning techniques based on collected information.
7. Maintenance issues: Will have a higher importance now that it is a self-driving car.
8. Miscellaneous restrictions: Several other restrictions such as operating in certain types of weather.
As you can see, most of the cons are considerations that will at some point stop being an issue. These cons are actually more like good explanations of why fully autonomous cars are not a reality yet more than arguments that could support the idea that fully autonomous cars will never see the light. It seems that the argument that provides more support to the cons are the legal issues, which have the problematic of having someone to blame when these cars fail or are involved in an accident more than actually focusing on the point that the technology could be reducing substantially the number of accidents.
When analyzing the pros, we can see that there are incredible benefits of having self-driving cars, and in many of these cases, the benefits will increase in conjunction with the development of parallel technologies. These pros will generate safety, environmental, social, experience, and cost benefits. It seems that as long as the authorities can solve a way of resolving the situations on which a self-driving car is involved in accident, this technology will arrive and will redefine the way people transport.
[1] https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/recapping-the-jetsons-episode-01-rosey-the-robot-48001715/
[2] https://www.sae.org/news/press-room/2018/12/sae-international-releases-updated-visual-chart-for-its-%E2%80%9Clevels-of-driving-automation%E2%80%9D-standard-for-self-driving-vehicles
[3] https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles#topic-road-self-driving
