Dis-united Kingdom and the domino effect
When it comes to shock, the UK’s EU exit result has been as great as almost any of the seismic world events that are greeting us ever more often in these turbulent times.
Friday morning was one of those ‘where were you when it happened’ moments. I woke to the news at 5am in Newcastle, and it was the English north east that gave first wind that the poll was not going as remainers had hoped.
On referendum day itself I’d been on stage with digital minister Ed Vaizey and tech entrepreneur Alex Depledge — both vociferous remainers. Both articulated their reasons for voting in. Both were anxious about the result. Both were right to worry.
Fallout on result day alone was immense. Cameron quit. Billions were wiped off shares (and pensions) and the pound went into freefall. Scotland made a new break for independence. It was all without doubt historic stuff.
Like the markets, social media went into meltdown. London, clearly so different to much of the rest of the land, was incredulous online. There were defriends and unfollows aplenty.
I’ve lived long enough to experience political disappointment, god knows: I’m a UK liberal after all. But there’s something way more divisive about yes/no, in/out that makes this all more serious. Result aside, the single saddest thing of all is the split that the referendum has defined in our country.
Evidence of our divided nation was everywhere in the results. The gulf between London and outside, between old and young, between haves and have-nots, is there for all to see. I can’t ever remember the country so split as now.
We can argue that the 52–48 margin is too close to be a mandate. But petitions calling for a new referendum are clutching at straws.
As I age, I think I’m more not less open to argument. But I’ve been a clear remainer since the get-go. That’s because there are certain things that I think I’ve learned.
Immigration has been the number one issue for Brexit voters. There are 3m EU nationals here. We also have 300K net migration. But those who come and stay work and pay taxes. London and Birmingham and Bristol and Manchester are now not just UK but true European cities. We are culturally better off for immigration and the economy needs it too.
In my work I’ve covered a sector that is desperate for talent. The open EU has helped bridge the digital skills gap. Its trade brings jobs and wealth and opportunity. US firms in London for EU trade are now looking at Berlin or Stockholm as new bases, as UK isolation looks ever-more likely.
As even the pro-leave Sun spelled out on Saturday, Brits will lose out from Brexit. And many of those who’ll lose most are those at the poorest end of the income scale, in the poorest corners of the land. They have had EU backing to stave off the worst effects of industrial change. Yet these are the areas that voted for Brexit in droves.
In the end, the public debate on the referendum descended into anti-thinking. Experts were demonised and bigotry won too many over. The voters — 52% of them anyway — turned on the establishment and on the government of the day.
This is the very problem with referenda: they’re rarely just about one issue.
Then there are the people assembled on the Brexit side: Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Nigel Farage. ‘A victory for decent people’? I can’t accept liars like Farage running my country.
Not that the remainers came up smelling much sweeter. The in campaign was either OTT fear-mongering or feeble to the point of useless. Jeremy Corbyn was a bit-part player at best and the coup that has begun against him this weekend is hardly unexpected.
David Cameron, at the head of remain, must take the main blame. He should never have called the referendum. Too few understood the issues at the heart of the debate and it was an abdication to put responsibility for resolving the divide at the heart of Conservatism in the hands of an uninformed electorate.
His resignation consigns us, and Europe, to uncertainty. It all looks so unplanned and un-thought through. It seems that no one on either side expected the result we had.
Personally, I wish I’d done more to argue harder and put the facts more strongly against Brexit. I was distracted, by work and sheer lack of time.
I’m fearful now, not just for the UK as a coherent place, but also for Europe. The far right are loving what’s happened. Look at the reaction of Marine Le Pen in France and Geert Wilders in Holland. Fascists thrive on turmoil and divide. And history shows that it’s the immigrants who they blame first. We have started that ball rolling.
Europe now faces a catastrophic domino effect. Some, like George Soros, believe that EU disintegration is now inevitable.
The sky has not fallen in it is true. But serious storm clouds lie ahead. It is all an unholy bloody mess.
