Was Weiser Right?
The so-called father of ubiquitous computing, Mark Weiser was a visionary in how he imagined the world would become connected by the devices that were being continuously developed, rapidly improved, and heavily utilized in the world around us. His own brainchild idea of ubiquitous computing was a new way of thinking about how humans would come to interact with technology in a seamless way beyond what was already being done with the personal computers of the time. Weiser believed that ubiquitous computing was the next wave in the development of technology in which mainframes followed by basic personal computers were the first two waves respectively. This new wave was meant to put computers into the background and make users interaction with them more intuitive and present in all ways similar to the way writing is. This idea is described by Weiser in his paper, ‘The Computer for the 21st Century’, where he considers writing to be the first information technology that has obviously become ubiquitously accepted through its use in everyday items like books, street signs, product wrappings, etc. Many of us wouldn’t even consider writing to be a technology as it has existed for thousands of years and is expected knowledge in today’s world. But maybe this ‘technology’ has just faded into the background like Weiser believed computing would as it improved and became better understood. So, for a prediction and belief that was established in 1991, how correct was Weiser regarding new ubiquitous technologies that would develop and how they would become a part of our everyday background almost 30 years later?
Weiser believed that ubiquitous computing would be accomplished through the assimilation of an increasing number of devices being present in any given room in which there would be many different sizes of device. He labeled these different sized items as tabs, pads, and boards all of which would perform different functions that make sense based on their unique size constraints. Tabs are the smallest device size that was considered, and these items were described as being inch scale computers that would be interconnected with one another that would serve various purposes. Among these are labeling, performing simple tasks (calculations/notes), acting as keys, etc. Next are pads which were described to be like a piece of paper crossed with the personal computer. These were described to basically replace paper but just be more powerful. They could be used for writing and displaying whatever necessary and would interlink with each other on top of a desk or surface with the ability to be shuffled like regular paper. Also, very surprisingly, they were meant to be universal and not be transported and individually owned but used on a need to use basis. Lastly, boards were just meant to replace the current standard of white or chalk boards. They would be electronic and could be written on with ‘electronic chalk’ while also being called upon for any display needs that exist. Weiser believed devices like this in the amount of more than 100 per room all interconnected for ease of use was the future that computing was driving towards. Everything computing and technology based would fade to the background and not be thought of.
Based on these predictions from Weiser, he was correct in his general theory while being in no way close to correct in the technology that would develop and how it would be used. What Weiser was correct about was that devices would begin to interconnect with one another making the user experience more fluent and coherent. Heavily due to the development of the current cloud technology, devices have the ability to access the same information across different devices since it all is existing at a remote source. For example, Apple product users know that iCloud has the ability to store all files from each individual device and then have them exist across all devices at once. Another piece of this puzzle is the continued development and expansion of the internet of things (IOT). Simply, the IOT considers that all devices are connected to the internet with the ability to share data and communicate with each other. Smart home products, wearable technology, vehicles, and much more are all interconnected in a network making them more accessible through technology and easier to use. However, this is where Weiser’s prediction begins to fall short and become dead wrong. Hundreds of computers per room of differing sizes all interconnected is incorrect in scale, device, and impact. Today, we are nowhere close to having over 100 devices in any given room that are all interconnected. You could consider a fully smart classroom at a large university with 20 people in it and would likely still fall short of this number! This scale prediction ends up being off because of the devices that were anticipated. The idea of tabs, pads, and boards, while interesting, fell short and was too insistent on killing off the idea of personal computing and personal devices. Where Weiser envisioned the use of numerous tabs and pads at a time in which these devices had no need to be transported as they would be used by different people (‘scrap computers’), the smartphone and tablet/laptop filled these roles while remaining personal. Most people today have multiple of these devices which they bring along with them, are simple to transport, and are more powerful than anything envisioned in the 90’s to that point that a single device is powerful enough for the tasks being asked of it. Lastly, instead of this technology fading to the background and just being a useful tool, devices are at the forefront of everyday life. People are more addicted and reliant on technology than ever before because of social media, communication ability, and the rapid development of better technology that every person eagerly pursues.
For a belief that stemmed out of the early days of personal computing almost 30 years ago, Weiser was fairly accurate in devices interconnecting just without the knowledge of how powerful technology would become in singular devices. But what if we tried to form our own forward-looking prediction? In our next article, based on knowing the technology that exists today, we will look to the future of ubiquitous computing and technology exploring concerns and developments that we believe will come by 2050.
